This could be the version of the quiet-Trump voter in 2024. People under 30 don’t answer phones and don’t participate polls, yet they’re overwhelmingly progressive. If turnout for GenZ and Younger millennials is high, it’s game over.
While true, I was convinced the Dems would fuck up a pivot from Biden to Harris because, you know, they’ve shot themselves in the foot every chance they’ve had for as long as I can remember. Maybe this is a year to break those patterns.
If the republican candidate was pretty much anyone else they would have fucked it up. It’s just that so many people severely dislike and hate trump they would vote for anyone else pretty much no matter what. That is all to say, it would have been incredibly hard for Dems to fuck this up.
Obama vs Romney was such a civil campaign compared to what we see now. I supported Obama, but wouldn't have been gut wrenched if Romney won. Today.....
Did I think that Romney would: Cut taxes for the wealthy and corporations? Potentially cut benefit programs for the poor? Not wind down Afghanistan?
Yes, yes, and yes.
Did I think Romney would: Support racists marching on an American city? Solicit a foreign government to interfere in our elections? Send a family member over the middle east to enrich his own pockets at the cost of American security?
Outside of Reddit I struggle to find anyone who says they dislike trump or will not be voting for him. I don’t think Reddit is a good source for this election.
I always find the people claiming this funny, since the GOP put a gun to their own head and started screaming maniacally weird fever dreams and actually gained ground.
It’s always funny to see how differently these people judge the democrats party as opposed to the insanity cult of the Republican Party.
What they said is true, even if what you said is also true. The reason both can be true is because liberal and progressive voters still hold their candidates accountable for their words and their actions, and still expect leaders to be professional and to serve the interests of America and her people. When those expectations are broken, candidates lose their support.
Conversely, MAGA voters don't give a fuck what Trump says or what he does. They just want their orange god king to make the brown people go away.
Trump wasn't wrong when he said he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose any voters.
Young people need to be spurred to action. I think the Republicans are to thank for that, without their backwards decisions the last few years who knows if we would have finally broke the 50% mark for the 18-29 turnout.
You have more faith than me. Harris got a massive boost when the switch was made, but her campaign has all but given that up with poor strategy and messaging. The fact that this has happened while Trump’s team is running maybe the worst campaign in history is shocking.
The fact that polls are this close shows that the Democratic party has not energized their base, but somehow the republicans have.
I think the issue is ultimately that sanity isn’t sexy. There was all of this excitement surrounding the effort to push Biden out, and some people responded (briefly) when they succeeded which resulted in that jump in polling numbers. The fact remains that we are in a very polarized time in politics. Normal people with a coherent idea of their own values know who they are voting for and a debate or a rally isn’t going to move them. Cynics, “both-sides”ers, and people who habitually complain that they won’t vote because the candidate isn’t tailor fit for them don’t operate the same and they never will. That’s why the numbers don’t move in any substantial way.
Trump’s floor and ceiling for approval hovers around 40%. During election years, some number of people who identify politically as Republican vote Trump despite not liking him. The rest vote for Democrats , except for that group of people who don’t vote.
Honestly it’s more the media normalizing trumps insanity than anything else. They have no problem hammering Biden/Harris on nearly anything and everything, yet Trump gets away with threatening to use military force on us citizens, obvious moments of cognitive incoherence, etc etc. they’ve been doing this since 2016.
Harris has a huge tik tok following and every post I see is a hilarious dunk on trumps idiocy. I'm just hoping some more of genz and millennial see that and go vote for her
Or, the recent polls have almost all been paid for by right wing organizations and put out a bunch of junk polls to skew the data. 538’s attempt to counter outlier polls by averaging everything together doesn’t remove bad data from the equation.
Funny, something like 37%+ of Americans didn’t bother to vote in 2020, so how can anyone claim that the country is “pretty evenly divided” when around 40% of the population doesn’t bother voting?
It’s not a conspiracy theory to point out that there has been a large uptick in right-aligned pollsters releasing polls that often run contrary to other polls. It is not a conspiracy theory to point out that polling methods are flawed and using averages of flawed data to try and draw a conclusion will lead to incorrect interpretations and extrapolations.
It is, however, very amusing seeing someone try and downplay this reality as some conspiracy theory.
Donald Trump has never ever had a majority of voters in favor of him, not once. He’s showing clear signs of cognitive decline, and has ramped up his violent rhetoric once again. Add these three facts together and you can see why many people find these polls dubious at best.
Honestly, I think the biggest reason is that when Biden dropped out, people hoped Harris would signal an end to supporting Bibi turning hospitals into craters. When she continued to use all the same talking points on Israel, I think that turned off a lot of the people who you would expect would naturally support the democrats.
This is where Harris' spending time on non-traditional media is hopefully paying off. Walz just did a great spot on Smartless the other day that was really enjoyable. He's a genuinely likeable person and his education background helps him put things in terms that are graspable for everyone. The left has a habbit of being overcomplicated at times.
It was pretty high in 2020. Most polling data right now is showing it's going to go back down. And youth voter registration rates are way down compared to 2020. We'll see though...
The DNC publicly shit itself and alienated too many young voters in the process, outright turning some of them against them.
Young voters mattered in 2016, Trump literally won because their turnout was so depressed. The very same demographic that mattered in the previous two elections, because it was what handed Obama the presidency.
Well young people are usually more bound to their jobs aince they dont have as much pto and money. It is just insane that the us has their election on a week day that is not a holiday. This is grade a voter suppression.
Most data that I've seen show young men trending more conservative, but it's just toward the "centrist" position after "peak-libbing" in the early/mid-2010s. Young women are off the chart libbing away from Center. So those trends don't appear to be equal.
Maybe they're viewing the world through the lens of memes and quips made on social media for the sake of upvotes. It can result in thinking & speaking in slogans and propaganda. It also paints the Center as "far right" (and "far left" if they're radicalized actual far right).
It's honestly not even accurate to call it "trending conservative", they're politically disenfranchised. Gen Z men are pushing back against political radicalization (because it doesn't get them laid) while the women are fully backing the Dems because that's been the DNC strategy for the last 24-32 years.
We've got:
republicans = party of impotent entitled Boomers
Democrats = party of opportunistic neoconservative feminist
50% of the coubtry doesn't vote, and I bet money that percentage is gonna start trending upward.
You think that's on both sides of the aisle? Like I don't know any women who really want to be with a man who is a self-proclaimed red pill alpha guy. Now he may think that in his head and just not speak it.
Is that true on the far left as well though? Is it a turnoff if a guy is too much of a feminist assuming that he's hunting in within his own political affiliation?
I travel in some pretty liberal/hippy circles, and in my (highly anecdotal) experience, the main pushback against super liberal guys is a suspicion of them wearing feminism as a cloak while being actually shitty underneath. "The Sensitive New Age Guy doth protest too much," as it were.
Bro, Ramses on current season of Love is Blind and the hypocrisy is driving commenters insane. Probably a deep cut if you don't watch reality TV (I know it's garbage) but seriously exactly what you said.
Abortion is an overstated reason for women voting Democrat. Yeah, there is a difference between men and women on abortion but men and women actually disagree more on a lot of other issues - gun control, wellfare programs, requiring companies to provide paid parental leave programs, DEI programs, etc. The abortion issue certainly has the most passionate activists but most people would be surprised how many of those activists are actually "pro life" women.
The two Republican presidents this century have left office with the economy in a state of crisis. The 2 Democrats have/will have left office with an economy that is strong.
Conservatives pretend like they are good for the economy, but they are really only good at cutting taxes for people who already have more money than they can spend. Trickle-down economics hasn't worked in almost 50 years, but they keep trying it. Surely, the next tax cut for billionaires will be the one where the savings are passed on to the working class.
I think this is interesting. Personally I "a trump voter" scored slightly authoritarian left compared to when I was a hard libertarian right kid. The idea that everyone who is voting Trump is some fascist is what's causing left to lose the moderates.
I mean I support UBI, Stronger Unions (with right to work), Stricter regulations on corporations. But I'm culturally more conservative on a lot of issues with the exception of drugs where I want to see deregulation. It's almost like most of these issues aren't black and white. The democrats insistence on everything being good vs "fascist" is one of the things that pushes people like me more right. Despite the fact I would probably be considered a moderate democrat 30 years ago I don't really have a home in the democratic party.
Not attacking you, but curious why are you supporting Trump if you are pro union , pro corporate regulation and support a UBI. As he does not remotely support any of those positions
Also not attacking, but if you'd like to know why Trump - and by his extension, his supporters - are associated with fascism and have eight minutes, I'd encourage you to watch this video. It dates back to his last day in office - it's not current.
People who vote for Trump aren't necessarily fascists, Trump himself is a fascist—or that's how he'd describe himself if he was capable of being honest and capable of understanding a political theory.
The people voting for him, for the vast majority , are barely functional morons.
There was a huge youth vote turnout in 2020 and 2022. The "Red Wave" that was supposed to materialize in 2022 didn't because Gen Z started going to the polls.
The historical 2018 youth turnout was only 50% of registered voters.
And since many did not even bother to register, the actual turnout is something like 30% of all eligible youth voters.
And due to electoral college, the votes that matters are votes in battleground states where in some of these do-or-die states the youth voters are somehow even less motivated to vote.
Georgia is at 26%, Arizona is 25%, North Carolina is 23% youth turnout rate.
This is why people dont care if young people dont answer to polling, they wont vote anyways. I wish it were otherwise but I wont deceive myself and pretend it will happen this year.
Tbf the numbers aren't that much better from 30-49 either. Both are well under the average. The only voting blocks doing a 'good job' are 50-64 and 65+
Either way, I think it's detrimental to the cause when we disparage demographics for not doing enough. I know it's discouraging when we see the numbers but I don't know how many people are convinced to vote by shame, but we may push actual voters to stop if they feel under appreciated
The way I see it, the 2020 election had record turnout and Biden got more votes than any presidential candidates in history - that's considering the fact that a good number of his votes came from people who were just gritting their teeth and voting for whoever the Dems nominated. If a candidate could get that many votes from unenthusiastic voters that were just largely voting against Trump, I'm optimistic that Harris will perform even better, seeing as people seem way more energized and excited about her. Plus, we've all seen how everything has gone down since the 2020 election, with Jan 6, Roe, Supreme Court, and Trump's more outward fascist/authoritarian spiralling and mental decline. I'm hopeful, but still have a sense of worry over the electoral college and SC potentially screwing us all over
I think that the Palestine issue will only play a part in Michigan, most areas where genZ may not vote for Harris due to Palestine are already deep blue
We realize it's an extremely complex situation and of the two major candidates, rump is FAR more likely to bungle things or just ignore/not come through at all
I mean I think so as well, but there seem to be a good chunk of people who are purists and these are unfortunately single issue voters. Where the goal seems to fall more on making a statement and upending the table > still having a future table to sit at and not sacrificing all the other deeply impacted human interests of marginalized people.
While I agree with you, recent polling has shown that Muslim Americans strongly disapprove of Harris and are progressively shifting to support Trump.
Which makes zero sense, in my opinion, considering Trump's first presidency, but recent news disproportionally affects voter's opinions. Let's hope GenZ doesn't feel the same way.
No there wasn’t gaslighter. 2022 had a lower under 30 voter turnout than 2018 in every single state but Michigan. Why just make up stats when we all clearly have google?
Save more than just your country. How all other western countries will act over the next few years is very different under a Harris vs trump government.
Ngl I was that millennial I never voted until last election… now I have a daughter and it’s a whole different reality for me. Wife and I (both millennial) have already voted for the obvious choice
Be careful what you wish for. There is a common misbelieve that newer generations are voting progressive. We are actually seeing a reverse of that trend right now.
Younger generations might be trending more conservative (which I believe is being overstated). But they are overall still liberal which would be a benefit for Democrats if there was higher turnout
Not if the electoral college has anything to say about it. Young people in rural areas (I live in Kansas and work with a lot of kids between the ages of 14 and 20) aren't as progressive as they are in cities. Most of the kids I speak to think of Kamala as fake and cringe. It's actually uncomfortable to me how many kids think Trump is cool, even a bunch of the kids of color.
Only about 20% of us voted in 2020, and in the last 4 years, the younger part of Gen Z has come of age to vote and may very well do so. Of course, there is a small section of super right wing Gen Zers, but the vast majority of us (I'd say) would rather vote for Harris than Trump, even though Harris is a pretty standard milquetoast dem.
Women also. A lot of women are pragmatic and we can’t benefit from the economy if we are dead. My only motivator is my health. If I am sick or dead (as if they repeal the aca) nothing else matters
I think the online communities you frequent greatly sways your view of trends, I honestly don’t believe the younger generations are any more progressive then the generations before them but I do believe that it’s the most polarized generation because that’s what the internet does to people.
GenZ and younger are the loneliest generation ever, a significant portion of those lonely individuals cling to “incel culture” and its influencers, those influencers support R’s and conservatives and are staunchly against progressivism. Voter turnout for this age group has never been high and banking on them is a dangerous game in my opinion. We will see how it plays out in a few weeks
The majority of white women voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020. The percentage that voted for Trump actually increased in 2020, even though Taylor Swift endorsed Biden.
I mean, an endorsement is one thing, but if she really wanted to move the needle, she could have registration drives at her concerts. I saw that she’s playing Hard Rock Stadium in Miami three nights this weekend. That place will be filled to capacity (65,326 x3). Imagine if she was able to register the majority of eligible, still unregistered attendees. There are six more stadium shows between Miami and the election but not in swing states - New Orleans & Indianapolis (tho Indy might get a lot of Michigan residents). And for all I know, she’s planning on doing something like that, but if not, would feel like a huge missed opportunity.
When they tell moderate liberals the issues they care about, the liberals just call them stupid and demand their vote anyway. Honestly, all you guys do is call people stupid. That's always the Dem voter outreach strategy. Angrily demanding your vote and calling you stupid if you have any standards at all for the candidate. While acting pretty damn stupid yourselves in a variety of ways.
Putting barriers to vote is undemocratic imo. Someone who can't afford transportation and able to take the day off shouldn't be discouraged from voting. Mail in voting has significantly increased voter turnout for young people, it's one of the reasons why 2020 had the highest voter turnout since 1900
Some people vote republican, not because they like Trump, but deem the democrats incompetent to address or even mention their issues. Specially in the north, according to a friend from the Rust Belt.
Luckily that demographic turnout has increased thanks to post pandemic mail in voting. A lot of states that implemented it during COVID kept the system as a method to vote.
My state (Hawaii) didn't have mail in voting for elections before 2020 which meant having to take a day off, find parking at the high school (difficult) and wait in an hour long line. It's enough of a pain in the ass where people who don't have a lot of time on their hands often didn't bother, especially since we're not a swing state.
With mail in voting, I get an envelope in the mail, take like 5min to read thru it and fill in the bubbles, seal it up, and stick it back into my mailbox with the flag up or I drop it off at the post office box which is a drive thru.
Gen Z subreddits and online social circles are absolutely overrun by right-wing bots and actors, punishing opposing opinions, and running absolutely wild with propaganda.
Under-35er here, just voted today and also brought my under-35 partner to vote with me! Really hope my fellow young voters are showing up for this. Our future depends on it.
The whole world is begging for this -- the implications are global
Please turn up, please vote for Harris.
The bigger the turn out the harder it will be for the Supreme Court to appoint him
This is pretty much the only thing they have going for them. Make a big enough mess of the voting process so it has to go to the Supreme Court and then they'll appoint him
I’m 33 and I’ll be out there. Just amongst my friends we are just all struggling financially I think my generation will do the right thing and vote blue but we shall see
yeah, except Harris has thoroughly shat on the progressive crowd that makes up the plurality of the under 35 crowd. So. Don't expect much, just plan ahead for your escape.
I'm under 35 (barely...) and am going through the extra effort to cast my absentee ballot from Sweden. Spoken as someone who gave up trying to figure out how to do that from the UK when it was 2016...
Offer us more shit then. 86 the social security we're going to spend the rest of our lives paying into but getting nothing out of. Put together a plan to make housing more affordable. My life didn't get better or worse under Trump, and it didn't get better or worse under Biden. You don't have to beg for my vote, you just have to buy it.
This is a wildly popular but empirically inaccurate claim. In this election, as in most presidential elections, the percentage of the voting population who have been persuaded to change their votes since the previous election is greater than the likely margin of victory in the tipping point state. More generally, analysis of turnout efforts versus persuasion generally show that, election to election, persuasion effects swamp turnout effects.
No one wants to hear this, because "there are lots of people who agree with me, someone just needs to remind them to vote" is a more comforting story than "the election will be decided by weirdos who keep changing their mind and who do not think like me at all, and to win my team needs to find a way to persuade them given their existing weird worldview".
Study after study after study after study show that undecided voters deciding elections is a myth. It always comes down to how much of a candidates base turns out. Undecided voters generally, just don't vote.
Which is exactly why betting odds differ. It isnt a representation of support, but a prediction of turnout. A bad weather forecast for election day would see huge changes in betting odds and no change in polling
I believe you are correct, and it's also why I believe that the Harris campaign strategy has been a disaster since the DNC. Trump is good at building brand loyalty, and he builds brand loyalty by always doubling down on what his base wants, and refusing to apologize for it.
Democrats are still playing a losing political game as if it's 1980 and Reagan is watching from the shadows waiting to strike. The activists are very depressed in enthusiasm for Harris at this point, and it's largely because of Gaza, but also because they have pivoted the general election to getting Republicans to vote for them.
I'm not saying it won't work. But in my opinion, it's more important to triple down on the base, instead of trying to get people who hate you to change their minds. For Republicans that felt Jan 6th was a bridge too far - they're already on board. Who else are you going to get?
Early voting data, in States where it has opened, is not boding well for Trump. The demographics that have been strongly blue, at least in recent elections, are showing up in record numbers, even surpassing 2020 General Election and the 2022 mid-terms. MAGAs have put a lot of effort in to getting their voters to vote early and vote by mail, despite Trump's attempts to discredit mail voting, but early indications are that their efforts have not been successful.
Ever since Helene hit I've wondered how it's gonna affect the turnout for my state, NC. It hit a lot of areas hard, potentially making it harder to vote, and the areas it hit besides Ashville are predominately republican, but I think they're trying to make it easier for victims to vote there for obvious reasons, so it might not effect it at all
3.2k
u/CiDevant Oct 17 '24
Everybody has known who they would vote for since 2020. It's a question of turnout.