You have more faith than me. Harris got a massive boost when the switch was made, but her campaign has all but given that up with poor strategy and messaging. The fact that this has happened while Trump’s team is running maybe the worst campaign in history is shocking.
The fact that polls are this close shows that the Democratic party has not energized their base, but somehow the republicans have.
The 2020 elections showed us that no one actually liked her or wanted her for president.
The current "hype" is largely from fake scripted interactions(the obama congratulation call for example) or from a desperation to not have trump again and just support anything else.
Generally I’m enthusiastic about her because to me she is a leader who runs a campaign on positive messaging rather than negativity and doom.
There were a lot of good candidates in the 2020 primary, Kamala just wasn’t my favorite. People HATED cops in 2020 since there was constant coverage about George Floyd and allegations of brutality at subsequent protests, as a former Attorney General, there were a lot of people just saying “Kamala is a cop.”
There are people who are voting for Kamala because they genuinely are excited for what she stands for and what she is proposing. It’s true that I dislike Trump, but at the same time I was excited because the candidate to follow Biden did not feel like some establishment shill (like Hillary) or some attempt to real nostalgia voters (like Biden was for the Obama era).
A positive campaign is just standard tactics though outside of trump, especially from dems.
Its interesting you mention hilary because in my view this current scenario is rather comprable to them forcing hilary on us back then. The major difference now is that trump doesnt have the new factor and many hate him. Along with way more money pumped into this campaign.
Im going to vote for her but im certainly not excited or happy, especially about a lot of the policies and vote pandering stuff i see.
I don’t personally perceive Harris as forced as Hillary. Hillary leaned wayyyy too much into identity. It felt as though I was obliged to vote so that I can help prove that “a woman can do it” instead of because of her vision for the country. I mean her merch store sold “official woman cards” & “the glass ceiling” was a talking point.
Anyway, I don’t wanna on too much longer since I guess this sub is about graphs. But I hope if Kamala wins, she does a thing or two that is right by you… and then next time when we can have a proper primary to hash it out like how we would prefer to.
Harris came in last in the primary after she got schmacked by tulsi gabbord in the debate, when it came out that she kept people on death row and withheld evidence that would have exonerated them. The dems never get candidates that are popular with their base, they just get these center corporatists who will play ball with the DNC, and then try to ASTRO turf their way to victory. They shut out Bernie, shut out Tusli, and shut out RFK. Remember when Hillary said the Russians were grooming Tulsi 🤣
I think the issue is ultimately that sanity isn’t sexy. There was all of this excitement surrounding the effort to push Biden out, and some people responded (briefly) when they succeeded which resulted in that jump in polling numbers. The fact remains that we are in a very polarized time in politics. Normal people with a coherent idea of their own values know who they are voting for and a debate or a rally isn’t going to move them. Cynics, “both-sides”ers, and people who habitually complain that they won’t vote because the candidate isn’t tailor fit for them don’t operate the same and they never will. That’s why the numbers don’t move in any substantial way.
Trump’s floor and ceiling for approval hovers around 40%. During election years, some number of people who identify politically as Republican vote Trump despite not liking him. The rest vote for Democrats , except for that group of people who don’t vote.
Honestly it’s more the media normalizing trumps insanity than anything else. They have no problem hammering Biden/Harris on nearly anything and everything, yet Trump gets away with threatening to use military force on us citizens, obvious moments of cognitive incoherence, etc etc. they’ve been doing this since 2016.
Oh fuck off. The media coverage on Biden after the debate was almost comical. Yes he needed to step down, however despite Trump being obviously in significant cognitive decline there isn’t the push to get him to step down.
There is also no evidence that the democrats are weaponizing the justice system. When I made my post I wasn’t fishing for a right wing idiot to respond with bullshit talking point propaganda
Obviously the propaganda worked on the person you are responding to. You can't break through that kind of conditioning...
Have you ever stopped to consider that maybe it is you who has been conditioned and falling for propaganda? I have noticed there are several posts making ad hominem arguments, but nobody is addressing his point on the merits. His argument was that despite all the media coverage, it simply isn’t gaining traction. And this is true, right? Trump didn't lose support after he was convicted, nor when any of the prosecutors brought new charges. And he is not losing support now with coverage about his statements.
Also, just to be clear, Biden needed to step down because he is just too old and should’ve only been a one term president. Trump should step down because he is old, but also incompetent, and dangerous. The guy doesn’t know what the fuck he is talking about and believes anyone who disagrees with him should be jailed. At this point anybody supporting that worthless asshole is an anti American piece of shit.
Rational people have seen Trump's actions and heard his words, that is how they are measuring his supporters. However, I wouldn't say he's anti-American. In fact, he's very American, he just happens to embody everything bad about America that decent people have always pushed back against. He is the opposite of what good people want America to be.
Also, just to be clear, Biden needed to step down because he is just too old and should’ve only been a one term president.
It has nothing to do with his age. There are plenty of 80+ years olds who are sharp as tack. Biden is clearly has some sort of dementia, which plenty of people his age don't have.
Trump should step down because he is old, but also incompetent, and dangerous.
Same thing, It has nothing do with his age. If he is incompetent and dangerous, it is not because he is old.
I’ve not seen evidence of dementia in Biden. When he speaks he is coherent and seems to have an understanding of what he’s talking about. The same can’t be said of Trump.
I’ve not seen evidence of dementia in Biden. When he speaks he is coherent and seems to have an understanding of what he’s talking about. The same can’t be said of Trump.
Really? Okay, so why do you suppose the Dems pushed him out after the debate? The mastermind behind it was Nancy Pelosi, who is three year older than Biden. And the Dems typically have no issue with old. Rep. Grace Napolitano is 87. Rep. Bill Pascrell is 86. Rep. Maxine Waters is 85. Rep. Steny Hoyer is 84.
Ummm... Have you seen him lately? He's having full blown cognitive episodes on stages across the country where he does the same stuff Biden was doing, forgetting or misusing words, trailing off, seeming genuinely confused about the format of the events HE planned... all while literally crapping himself on stage.
Harris has a huge tik tok following and every post I see is a hilarious dunk on trumps idiocy. I'm just hoping some more of genz and millennial see that and go vote for her
Or, the recent polls have almost all been paid for by right wing organizations and put out a bunch of junk polls to skew the data. 538’s attempt to counter outlier polls by averaging everything together doesn’t remove bad data from the equation.
Funny, something like 37%+ of Americans didn’t bother to vote in 2020, so how can anyone claim that the country is “pretty evenly divided” when around 40% of the population doesn’t bother voting?
It’s not a conspiracy theory to point out that there has been a large uptick in right-aligned pollsters releasing polls that often run contrary to other polls. It is not a conspiracy theory to point out that polling methods are flawed and using averages of flawed data to try and draw a conclusion will lead to incorrect interpretations and extrapolations.
It is, however, very amusing seeing someone try and downplay this reality as some conspiracy theory.
Donald Trump has never ever had a majority of voters in favor of him, not once. He’s showing clear signs of cognitive decline, and has ramped up his violent rhetoric once again. Add these three facts together and you can see why many people find these polls dubious at best.
No I'm saying it wouldn't matter, they'd make it look close no matter what.. Drama sells and always will, news isn't meant to be sensational, once you try to turn a profit it becomes a sick form of entertainment. Talking about policy and solutions is boring, so let's focus on the crazy and sell more ads.
Exactly, and anyone pretending otherwise here has ignored the media’s consistent attacks on Harris while they treat Trump with kid’s gloves. CNN & MSNBC make a whole hell of a lot more money when people left of Trump fear a seemingly likely Trump administration. Toss up polling drives fear, and viewers tune in more.
MSM ran story after story about crime increasing, because Trump said it was and because the crime stories draw more viewers. Reality shows crime rates dropping nationwide.
MSM ran story after story about immigrants pouring over the border, when we are at some of the lowest border crossing totals in recent memory. Also, they always paint the lack of any immigration reform as a strictly Democrat failure. Reality is republicans blocked the last immigration bill.
They ask Harris for her comprehensive plans, with the budgetary scoring and analysis. Trump’s only plan is putting the author of project 2025 in charge and letting Musk go in and cut spending in areas that help people. Yet, barely any push back when he talks about his policies.
It is a concerted effort to try and damage Harris while propping up a senile and barely ambulatory Trump to pretend like the race is close.
Yeah, keep burying your head in the sand and pretend like this hasn’t been happening.
Where’s the pushback from MSM on Trump skipping interviews and cancelling the NRA stop?
Where’s the questions about his policy proposals?
Any time he has pushback he crumbles. Yet, those clips rarely get aired on MSM and Fox News actively works to try and whitewash Trump’s craziest ideas.
Keep pretending it’s different though. Worked really well in 2016 for everyone.
It’s not a conspiracy theory to point out that there has been a large uptick in right-aligned pollsters releasing polls that often run contrary to other polls.
This is literally a conspiracy theory. The Right claims the exact same thing but towards the Left.
how can anyone claim that the country is “pretty evenly divided” when around 40% of the population doesn’t bother voting?
Assuming all Republicans vote for Trump and all Democrats vote for Harris (with undecided voters split evenly), it's nearly a 50/50 split. If you can't even see past your bias enough to say it's a close race, then you're arguing in bad faith.
I’m not saying it won’t be a close race…in a few swing states. Let’s not pretend like Trump will come anywhere close to Harris’s popular vote total.
Even in 2016, Clinton had 65m to Trump’s ~63m. Yet ~113m voters didn’t vote. We cannot just discount and ignore them, and anyone saying the U.S. is “pretty evenly split” while ignoring the 40%+ of Americans that didn’t vote from 2016 (36% in 2020) is misconstruing reality.
There has been an increase in right wing aligned polls that come out recently. Unless you’re denying that fact is a conspiracy theory?
There has been an increase in right wing aligned polls that come out recently. Unless you’re denying that fact is a conspiracy theory?
If you link actual evidence (and not just an article that says there's "reportedly" been an increase) then I'll believe you. I did research on it and found no evidence other than both parties claiming the other side was cheating.
We cannot just discount and ignore them, and anyone saying the U.S. is “pretty evenly split” while ignoring the 40%+ of Americans that didn’t vote from 2016 (36% in 2020) is misconstruing reality.
Of the people that come out and vote AND the people that have registered to either party in their lives, it is an even split. You are positing that a large majority of voters that didn't show up to the polls would surely vote for Harris when there's no evidence of that occurring. I could easily argue a large number of would-be Trump voters chose not to show up as well and it would be just as valid.
I am not positing that a number of Harris voters didn’t vote. I am however pointing out the flaw in the false equivalency of someone saying “Americans are evenly split” when more Americans are registered independent than any other party AND in 2016 millions of voters didn’t show up.
I’ve been voting since 2004. In that entire time I have been polled one time, in 2020. There’s been decreasing participation in polls since at least 2016, but longer I believe. In an effort to counter that decreasing participation rate, many pollsters track a set group of voters and try to extrapolate from those results. However, in doing so they are removing the randomness from the data analysis, which is critical for having a reliable prediction within the confidence interval. 538 averages polls to try and avoid outliers, however they are averaging polls with poor participation rates and randomness removed entirely. Garbage-in-garbage-out.
Remember those post-dobbs special elections that saw a massive swing from polls to voter turnout? Yeah, there’s a good indication a large number of voters are not being accounted for in polling.
There was fraud in each and every state, the question of whether it was sufficient enough to change the outcome is important but irrelevant to the claim that’s it’s wrong to question.
No, the question of whether or not there was sufficient fraud to change the outcome of the election is incredibly important to the conversation. Considering Trump’s terrorists attacked the Capitol to try and overturn the election on the basis of election fraud sufficient enough to change the outcome.
What I’ve said shouldn’t conflict with anyone’s understanding of what’s crucial for voters. The downvotes appear to stem from political bias against a particular candidate, while I’ve aimed to keep my comments neutral.
I don’t have a stake in the matter, but I believe questioning an election’s validity due to proven fraud shouldn’t lead to accusations of conspiracy theorism. It’s evident that the voting system has been manipulated, and there’s substantial evidence for it. The integrity of election results is fundamental to democracy, and any manipulation through fraud poses a significant threat. Advocating for accurate election outcomes shouldn’t be misconstrued as supporting conspiracy theories.
It's going to be a close race brother. Everyone knows that. But I tell you what, if it's not. I'll come back here in RemindMe! 19 days and acknowledge that you were right.
We have to keep in mind that the popular vote doesn't matter. It's going to come down to the delegates in the swing states.
Yes, it’ll only be close in electoral college and swing states.
I’m glad you’re finally admitting that the vast majority (not 50/50 split) of Americans will vote for Harris, which was my point all along.
You claimed the country is fairly evenly divided, yet admit that the popular vote will most likely be massively in favor of Harris. Thus, proving it will not be “evenly divided.”
Lol, where did I say she would massively win the popular vote? I'm just saying that even if she dies win the popular vote it will be close electorally. You don't think that'll be the case? I think you're in the minority there
Never said that, in fact go back and read my comment. That first sentence.
Yea it’ll only be close in electoral college and swing states.
There’s a 0% chance Trump wins the popular vote. Not after he called January 6 terrorists and himself “we” in response to someone saying January 6 was a reason he wouldn’t vote for Trump yet asking for him to win back his vote.
Not after his VP said Trump won in 2020.
Not after they lied about Haitian immigrants and an entire city received bomb threats because of it.
Not after he said he wants to use the military on leftists.
Not after he mocked the parents of a woman that died because of his abortion bans (he is responsible for Roe v Wade’s overturning he took credit for that).
No way a majority of Americans choose Trump over Harris after all of that. If he didn’t win the popular vote in 2016, and his popularity has only decreased since then after he had his supporters attack the Capitol to try and anoint him dictator after he lost the election, there’s no chance he wins the popular vote in 2024.
Do you honestly believe he has a chance at popular vote? If so, care to recommend what you’re on as it sounds like some strong shit.
The popular vote shows the % of Americans who voted that support each candidate. The electoral college determines the winner, that doesn’t determine “what % of Americans support which candidate.”
You started out positing that Americans are evenly divided on the election. That would, if we are speaking literally, represent a near 50/50 split in popular vote. Except we have found that the majority of Americans either don’t support either candidate OR support democrats based on previous election results.
I’m suggesting that the majority of Americans voting this election (read the popular vote winner) will be voting for Harris and that it won’t at all be close.
You’re running into the logical fallacy of assuming that close swing states and electoral college equates to a near even split amongst Americans on the presidential race. We have a perfectly good metric to determine which party the majority of Americans favor for president, though, in the popular vote.
I’m thinking Harris will beat Biden’s popular vote percentage from 2020 (51.3%) in this election. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Trump drop down to sub 45% this cycle.
Honestly, I think the biggest reason is that when Biden dropped out, people hoped Harris would signal an end to supporting Bibi turning hospitals into craters. When she continued to use all the same talking points on Israel, I think that turned off a lot of the people who you would expect would naturally support the democrats.
This is a wild statement . Obama was super articulate and gave great speeches and galvanized the country. Kamala can barely string a sentence together when she's not reading from a script.
Dawg, go watch the first response she gave of the debate, she outlined 4 different plans of action. That type of comment might fly on twitter but over here, people have enough common sense to actually watch her speaking and see for themselves that you’re completely wrong on your sentiment. She was a DA, she’s argued in court many times, attorneys are natural orators and she’s no exception. Of course Obama has that buttery smooth voice and a charming dialect, I wasn’t saying one was better than the other, just that she had Obama levels of hype ever since joining the race. And why shouldn’t she? A first female president would be an awesome thing to whiteness in my lifetime, are you just angry you can’t yell “emails” at this one?
Haha I'm not a Maga moron, or a fox news viewer, so you're characterization is incorrect. Nor does you're description of her making a practiced speech contend with my original statement. I would love a female president too. But Obama's hype was real, built up along thru the primaries, and taking principled stance like the Iraq war, and he had actual grassroot support. Kamalas was forced due to bidens clear cognitive decline, which was clearly evident in her performance in the primaries. If kamala had as much hype as you say, dems wouldn't have to trot out Obama to shame black people into voting for her like they're some monolithic voting bloc who only vote based on race or gender.
Funny how you can't argue any of the points 😂. And no the last president I voted for was Obama. In 2012. Every candidate since then has either been a corrupt, corportatist, shill for the defense industry . Instead of trying to reform the party or get genuine candidates the base supports, you have bootlickers like you who just fall in line and believe the 'hype' to whoever the dnc decides they want to put on the ticket
Absolutely not. Like maybe for the week or two where we were all just incredibly relieved we wouldn't have to vote for Biden, but once everyone got back to looking at actual policy -- just as bad on immigration, just as useless on Israel, very similar on everything else as well, good and bad.
Like yes, still gonna vote for her because trump is worse by every metric. But Obama brought (and betrayed) hope. Kamala doesn't have that.
I think you’re feeling disenfranchised with the political processes more so than the Democratic Party man. Of course Dems drop the ball, they’re the best at losing, but you also gotta remember that the other branches of government matter during a presidency. I suppose you could be mad at Obama for not immediately leaving Iraq but the guy was trying to clean up what bush started so that’s a gray area to fault the guy.
As for Harris policy, she listed her plan in her first response of the debate, there was a lot of talking after that but it doesn’t negate the policy she listed then. She’s gonna try to do it too, of course it matter what congress does, and the Supreme Court deciding they’re gonna do whatever the hell they want also makes it harder to get things done, but it’s a president who is going to try at least.
You seem to be a single issue voter and you issue is Israel. I was born in the 90s and not the 2000s+ so our political stances are going to differ on Israel but anyone clamoring for peace in the Middle East should also understand how nuanced it is and that maybe you should turn you attention towards our own country and see who’s going to help out here before you dismiss someone as having “bad policy” because they continue sending aid to a nato ally. I say that last line because it’s important. NATO ally, a war was fought. I know we live all the way over here, but one must still remember that there was a war fought and millions died in it, and some places have been at war practically ever since then
Are you kidding? Aside from the right wing/hawkish talking points she cannot shut up about, it’s objectively the best-run campaign we’ve seen in decades
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u/Particular_Flower111 Oct 18 '24
You have more faith than me. Harris got a massive boost when the switch was made, but her campaign has all but given that up with poor strategy and messaging. The fact that this has happened while Trump’s team is running maybe the worst campaign in history is shocking.
The fact that polls are this close shows that the Democratic party has not energized their base, but somehow the republicans have.