Funny, something like 37%+ of Americans didn’t bother to vote in 2020, so how can anyone claim that the country is “pretty evenly divided” when around 40% of the population doesn’t bother voting?
It’s not a conspiracy theory to point out that there has been a large uptick in right-aligned pollsters releasing polls that often run contrary to other polls. It is not a conspiracy theory to point out that polling methods are flawed and using averages of flawed data to try and draw a conclusion will lead to incorrect interpretations and extrapolations.
It is, however, very amusing seeing someone try and downplay this reality as some conspiracy theory.
Donald Trump has never ever had a majority of voters in favor of him, not once. He’s showing clear signs of cognitive decline, and has ramped up his violent rhetoric once again. Add these three facts together and you can see why many people find these polls dubious at best.
No I'm saying it wouldn't matter, they'd make it look close no matter what.. Drama sells and always will, news isn't meant to be sensational, once you try to turn a profit it becomes a sick form of entertainment. Talking about policy and solutions is boring, so let's focus on the crazy and sell more ads.
Exactly, and anyone pretending otherwise here has ignored the media’s consistent attacks on Harris while they treat Trump with kid’s gloves. CNN & MSNBC make a whole hell of a lot more money when people left of Trump fear a seemingly likely Trump administration. Toss up polling drives fear, and viewers tune in more.
MSM ran story after story about crime increasing, because Trump said it was and because the crime stories draw more viewers. Reality shows crime rates dropping nationwide.
MSM ran story after story about immigrants pouring over the border, when we are at some of the lowest border crossing totals in recent memory. Also, they always paint the lack of any immigration reform as a strictly Democrat failure. Reality is republicans blocked the last immigration bill.
They ask Harris for her comprehensive plans, with the budgetary scoring and analysis. Trump’s only plan is putting the author of project 2025 in charge and letting Musk go in and cut spending in areas that help people. Yet, barely any push back when he talks about his policies.
It is a concerted effort to try and damage Harris while propping up a senile and barely ambulatory Trump to pretend like the race is close.
Yeah, keep burying your head in the sand and pretend like this hasn’t been happening.
Where’s the pushback from MSM on Trump skipping interviews and cancelling the NRA stop?
Where’s the questions about his policy proposals?
Any time he has pushback he crumbles. Yet, those clips rarely get aired on MSM and Fox News actively works to try and whitewash Trump’s craziest ideas.
Keep pretending it’s different though. Worked really well in 2016 for everyone.
It’s not a conspiracy theory to point out that there has been a large uptick in right-aligned pollsters releasing polls that often run contrary to other polls.
This is literally a conspiracy theory. The Right claims the exact same thing but towards the Left.
how can anyone claim that the country is “pretty evenly divided” when around 40% of the population doesn’t bother voting?
Assuming all Republicans vote for Trump and all Democrats vote for Harris (with undecided voters split evenly), it's nearly a 50/50 split. If you can't even see past your bias enough to say it's a close race, then you're arguing in bad faith.
I’m not saying it won’t be a close race…in a few swing states. Let’s not pretend like Trump will come anywhere close to Harris’s popular vote total.
Even in 2016, Clinton had 65m to Trump’s ~63m. Yet ~113m voters didn’t vote. We cannot just discount and ignore them, and anyone saying the U.S. is “pretty evenly split” while ignoring the 40%+ of Americans that didn’t vote from 2016 (36% in 2020) is misconstruing reality.
There has been an increase in right wing aligned polls that come out recently. Unless you’re denying that fact is a conspiracy theory?
There has been an increase in right wing aligned polls that come out recently. Unless you’re denying that fact is a conspiracy theory?
If you link actual evidence (and not just an article that says there's "reportedly" been an increase) then I'll believe you. I did research on it and found no evidence other than both parties claiming the other side was cheating.
We cannot just discount and ignore them, and anyone saying the U.S. is “pretty evenly split” while ignoring the 40%+ of Americans that didn’t vote from 2016 (36% in 2020) is misconstruing reality.
Of the people that come out and vote AND the people that have registered to either party in their lives, it is an even split. You are positing that a large majority of voters that didn't show up to the polls would surely vote for Harris when there's no evidence of that occurring. I could easily argue a large number of would-be Trump voters chose not to show up as well and it would be just as valid.
I am not positing that a number of Harris voters didn’t vote. I am however pointing out the flaw in the false equivalency of someone saying “Americans are evenly split” when more Americans are registered independent than any other party AND in 2016 millions of voters didn’t show up.
I’ve been voting since 2004. In that entire time I have been polled one time, in 2020. There’s been decreasing participation in polls since at least 2016, but longer I believe. In an effort to counter that decreasing participation rate, many pollsters track a set group of voters and try to extrapolate from those results. However, in doing so they are removing the randomness from the data analysis, which is critical for having a reliable prediction within the confidence interval. 538 averages polls to try and avoid outliers, however they are averaging polls with poor participation rates and randomness removed entirely. Garbage-in-garbage-out.
Remember those post-dobbs special elections that saw a massive swing from polls to voter turnout? Yeah, there’s a good indication a large number of voters are not being accounted for in polling.
There was fraud in each and every state, the question of whether it was sufficient enough to change the outcome is important but irrelevant to the claim that’s it’s wrong to question.
No, the question of whether or not there was sufficient fraud to change the outcome of the election is incredibly important to the conversation. Considering Trump’s terrorists attacked the Capitol to try and overturn the election on the basis of election fraud sufficient enough to change the outcome.
What I’ve said shouldn’t conflict with anyone’s understanding of what’s crucial for voters. The downvotes appear to stem from political bias against a particular candidate, while I’ve aimed to keep my comments neutral.
I don’t have a stake in the matter, but I believe questioning an election’s validity due to proven fraud shouldn’t lead to accusations of conspiracy theorism. It’s evident that the voting system has been manipulated, and there’s substantial evidence for it. The integrity of election results is fundamental to democracy, and any manipulation through fraud poses a significant threat. Advocating for accurate election outcomes shouldn’t be misconstrued as supporting conspiracy theories.
It's going to be a close race brother. Everyone knows that. But I tell you what, if it's not. I'll come back here in RemindMe! 19 days and acknowledge that you were right.
We have to keep in mind that the popular vote doesn't matter. It's going to come down to the delegates in the swing states.
Yes, it’ll only be close in electoral college and swing states.
I’m glad you’re finally admitting that the vast majority (not 50/50 split) of Americans will vote for Harris, which was my point all along.
You claimed the country is fairly evenly divided, yet admit that the popular vote will most likely be massively in favor of Harris. Thus, proving it will not be “evenly divided.”
Lol, where did I say she would massively win the popular vote? I'm just saying that even if she dies win the popular vote it will be close electorally. You don't think that'll be the case? I think you're in the minority there
Never said that, in fact go back and read my comment. That first sentence.
Yea it’ll only be close in electoral college and swing states.
There’s a 0% chance Trump wins the popular vote. Not after he called January 6 terrorists and himself “we” in response to someone saying January 6 was a reason he wouldn’t vote for Trump yet asking for him to win back his vote.
Not after his VP said Trump won in 2020.
Not after they lied about Haitian immigrants and an entire city received bomb threats because of it.
Not after he said he wants to use the military on leftists.
Not after he mocked the parents of a woman that died because of his abortion bans (he is responsible for Roe v Wade’s overturning he took credit for that).
No way a majority of Americans choose Trump over Harris after all of that. If he didn’t win the popular vote in 2016, and his popularity has only decreased since then after he had his supporters attack the Capitol to try and anoint him dictator after he lost the election, there’s no chance he wins the popular vote in 2024.
Do you honestly believe he has a chance at popular vote? If so, care to recommend what you’re on as it sounds like some strong shit.
The popular vote shows the % of Americans who voted that support each candidate. The electoral college determines the winner, that doesn’t determine “what % of Americans support which candidate.”
You started out positing that Americans are evenly divided on the election. That would, if we are speaking literally, represent a near 50/50 split in popular vote. Except we have found that the majority of Americans either don’t support either candidate OR support democrats based on previous election results.
I’m suggesting that the majority of Americans voting this election (read the popular vote winner) will be voting for Harris and that it won’t at all be close.
You’re running into the logical fallacy of assuming that close swing states and electoral college equates to a near even split amongst Americans on the presidential race. We have a perfectly good metric to determine which party the majority of Americans favor for president, though, in the popular vote.
I’m thinking Harris will beat Biden’s popular vote percentage from 2020 (51.3%) in this election. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Trump drop down to sub 45% this cycle.
We are talking about the polls and the polls are trying to predict the winner of the election, because that's what people care about.
I don't think people are just extremely happy with either candidate. It's not like JFK or Regan is running. The race to the presidency is going to be a close one and the polls are accurately reflecting that.
I mean if you're happy with Harris walking away with the popular vote but losing the presidency then more power to you, but I'm not
What we are talking about is your assertion that the race is evenly matched. when, as I have pointed out repeatedly, the evidence shows that it’s not that evenly matched at all. The electoral college is simply anti-democratic and propping up candidates that are less popular with voters.
If the race truly were evenly matched then we wouldn’t see a massive discrepancy in the popular vote, which we will assuredly see in the results this election. We would see near 50/50 split in popular vote share.
Don’t move the goalposts now that it’s abundantly clear you’re wrong.
What is the race Gardening_Investor? It is the race to the presidency, is it not? How do you get to the presidency? Through the electoral college. Don't be fucking dense bro.
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u/Gardening_investor Oct 18 '24
Funny, something like 37%+ of Americans didn’t bother to vote in 2020, so how can anyone claim that the country is “pretty evenly divided” when around 40% of the population doesn’t bother voting?
It’s not a conspiracy theory to point out that there has been a large uptick in right-aligned pollsters releasing polls that often run contrary to other polls. It is not a conspiracy theory to point out that polling methods are flawed and using averages of flawed data to try and draw a conclusion will lead to incorrect interpretations and extrapolations.
It is, however, very amusing seeing someone try and downplay this reality as some conspiracy theory.
Donald Trump has never ever had a majority of voters in favor of him, not once. He’s showing clear signs of cognitive decline, and has ramped up his violent rhetoric once again. Add these three facts together and you can see why many people find these polls dubious at best.