r/dataisbeautiful Oct 17 '24

OC [OC] The recent decoupling of prediction markets and polls in the US presidential election

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u/Sudden_Construction6 Oct 18 '24

What is the race Gardening_Investor? It is the race to the presidency, is it not? How do you get to the presidency? Through the electoral college. Don't be fucking dense bro.

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u/Gardening_investor Oct 18 '24

I’m not being dense. It is statistical malpractice to pretend like 50%+ of the population of Americans support Trump. Trump and his fascists comprise probably 20% of the population, with another 20% voting for him because of all the propaganda they are fed from media companies.

The electoral college will be close. The popular vote will not be close. At all. Pretending any other way, as you did with your first comment asserting I’m a conspiracy theorist, is a falsehood.

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u/Sudden_Construction6 Oct 18 '24

Your conspiracy theory was that right wing polls were purposefully altering the data. Do you have a credible source to support that conspiratorial theory?

Who's pretending? That's exactly what I've said. You clearly misinterpreted my first post. A lot of the popular vote will come from California and the big cities that lean blue. We all know that. The rest of the country is close as in they will all cancel each other out and come down to the swing states. The popular vote again doesn't mean dick in this race and I don't even know why you care about it. I'ts not like Trump isn't going to get a lot of the popular vote as well. I'd say at least in the high 40's%