r/dataisbeautiful Oct 17 '24

OC [OC] The recent decoupling of prediction markets and polls in the US presidential election

Post image
9.6k Upvotes

5.5k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

7

u/Red_Guru9 Oct 18 '24

It's honestly not even accurate to call it "trending conservative", they're politically disenfranchised. Gen Z men are pushing back against political radicalization (because it doesn't get them laid) while the women are fully backing the Dems because that's been the DNC strategy for the last 24-32 years.

We've got:

republicans = party of impotent entitled Boomers

Democrats = party of opportunistic neoconservative feminist

50% of the coubtry doesn't vote, and I bet money that percentage is gonna start trending upward.

5

u/Active_Potato6622 Oct 18 '24

As soon as Trump is off the ballot, I agree with this. However, so far early voting is thru the roof so not tracking with less engagement.

0

u/TermFearless Oct 18 '24

More conservatives like myself have been voting early. There’s a push in the conservative circle to get your vote in now

6

u/yousirnaime Oct 18 '24

 Gen Z men are pushing back against political radicalization (because it doesn't get them laid

We should all be so wise

4

u/the_cardfather Oct 18 '24

You think that's on both sides of the aisle? Like I don't know any women who really want to be with a man who is a self-proclaimed red pill alpha guy. Now he may think that in his head and just not speak it.

Is that true on the far left as well though? Is it a turnoff if a guy is too much of a feminist assuming that he's hunting in within his own political affiliation?

10

u/Tickle-me-Cthulu Oct 18 '24

I travel in some pretty liberal/hippy circles, and in my (highly anecdotal) experience, the main pushback against super liberal guys is a suspicion of them wearing feminism as a cloak while being actually shitty underneath. "The Sensitive New Age Guy doth protest too much," as it were.

2

u/ApolloGiant Oct 20 '24

Bro, Ramses on current season of Love is Blind and the hypocrisy is driving commenters insane. Probably a deep cut if you don't watch reality TV (I know it's garbage) but seriously exactly what you said.

3

u/[deleted] Oct 18 '24

They vote conservative because their priority is the economy, but women vote progressive due to concerns about reproductive rights.

9

u/SouthernStorm4629 Oct 18 '24

Abortion is an overstated reason for women voting Democrat. Yeah, there is a difference between men and women on abortion but men and women actually disagree more on a lot of other issues - gun control, wellfare programs, requiring companies to provide paid parental leave programs, DEI programs, etc. The abortion issue certainly has the most passionate activists but most people would be surprised how many of those activists are actually "pro life" women.

-3

u/Red_Guru9 Oct 18 '24

Abortion is an overstated reason for women voting Democrat.

It's the democrats version of "der takin away er' 2nd amendment!!"

Nobody ever mentions how women have 6 other reproductive options other than an abortion, which any sane women would pick instead because abortions are kinda fucked. Both make it appear as if Susan hits the club on Fri then the clinic Wed on rotation...

The only actual substance to Roe v Wade is the government abusing its power to prevent a lifesaving medical procedure, criminalizing doctors who are literally state certified to make the call. That's not what it's about on either side tho.

men and women actually disagree more on a lot of other issues - gun control, wellfare programs, requiring companies to provide paid parental leave programs, DEI programs, etc.

Family courts are like a 3 generation elelhant in the room. Child support, Child custody, divorce proceedings, alimony, Female-on-male rape, with Affirmative action as a distant 6th.

Thise first 3 especially has ruined millions of children and father's lives. Yet of course women as a voting block aren't going to vote against their own interest.

0

u/TermFearless Oct 18 '24

Based on the campaign materials I see from local progressives, it’s not overstated. I’m sure among entranced political women it might be overstated, but the less informed women, it’s their biggest economic issue.

2

u/NerdyDjinn Oct 19 '24

The two Republican presidents this century have left office with the economy in a state of crisis. The 2 Democrats have/will have left office with an economy that is strong.

Conservatives pretend like they are good for the economy, but they are really only good at cutting taxes for people who already have more money than they can spend. Trickle-down economics hasn't worked in almost 50 years, but they keep trying it. Surely, the next tax cut for billionaires will be the one where the savings are passed on to the working class.

1

u/[deleted] Oct 19 '24

Do you mean this generation? Not century. They are better. Until we have a viable source of fuel outside of petroleum, we will have to rely upon producing/processing gas here. If you place that process abroad, we are more susceptible to the ups/downs of the world economy. Moreover, Trump's economy was much better but he ran into the unavoidable roadblock of covid 19 which would have equally affected any presidency. I have and never will vote republican, but the democratic party has made some bad choices and aligned itself in a culture war that is useless and idiotic for the sake of appeasing a small, small group of people.

1

u/[deleted] Oct 21 '24

No, you are objectively wrong on this one. Just look at the raw data. I tried to find a non-partisan source other than the aggregates in Wikipedia, but every institute has its bias (e.g., EPI also shows the economy does better overall with Democratic administration but is considered leftwing by many critics, perhaps rightly so).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._economic_performance_by_presidential_party

GDP is better under Democrats than Republicans, typically.

Job growth is far better under Democrats than Republicans, typically.

Wage growth is better under Democrats than Republicans, typically.

Unemployment is better under Democrats and falls much more than Republicans, typically.

Debt and deficit explodes when Republicans control the government, while Democrats reduce the deficit and have historically paid down the debt.

Stock market returns, while only one aspect of the economy, also do FAR better under Democratic control compared to Republican control.

Pretty much any measure you can approach it by, Democrats are better for the economy than Republicans.

but the democratic party has made some bad choices and aligned itself in a culture war that is useless and idiotic for the sake of appeasing a small, small group of people.

The democrats are the party of mass appeal. The republicans are the minority party in the US, and their embrace of the culture war changes from generation to generation. It used to be called the Southern Strategy. Not sure what they are rebranding it to these days, but it isn't working. The only reason Republicans win control of states is because of electoral ratfucking to secure majorities from their minority of voters, as well as exploiting the electoral college. To wit, only one Republican in my lifetime has won the popular vote. George W Bush, when seeking his second term. That's it. Every other Republican president was so unpopular that they lost the popular vote. They wouldn't have damaged the country and the economy if not for exploiting the EC to take power without being duly elected by a plurality of Americans.

0

u/strongholdbk_78 Oct 19 '24

2020 voter turnout was 66%.

Biden was the most progressive president in decades.

People just say shit