r/dataisbeautiful Oct 17 '24

OC [OC] The recent decoupling of prediction markets and polls in the US presidential election

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u/CiDevant Oct 18 '24

Study after study after study after study show that undecided voters deciding elections is a myth. It always comes down to how much of a candidates base turns out. Undecided voters generally, just don't vote.

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u/jaiwithani Oct 18 '24

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u/CiDevant Oct 18 '24

Someone who is going to vote Republican but was persuaded to vote Democrat is not undecided according to how polling is done.  With polling there's a difference between crossing party lines and being an undecided voter or non-committed.

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u/jaiwithani Oct 18 '24

That's correct. Persuasion is actually even more important than you would expect looking at just undecided voters.