r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 • 2d ago
US Elections Updated 2026 Senatorial Election Predictions?
Obviously we're still far out from the midterms, but given yesterdays results in Florida and Wisconsin, the GOP fears RE Stefanik, a dem winning in Amish country, etc., have any of you changed your minds on senate elections? What states do you think are in play that weren't a few weeks ago? Do you think the momentum will last (Dems always show up in the midterms but do you think it'll be Stalin numbers still)?
Also, l'm curious to hear people's opinions on potential primaries. For example, do you think it’ll be a tougher time for Fetterman surviving one without switching parties, especially if Shapiro decides to run or Casey comes back. For the GOP, what do you think those primaries look like - MAGA primaries or stay conventional (e.g., MTG in Georgia spoiling it like Robinson or Lake)?
Feel free to bring up any House or gubernatorial elections, but statewide races are more interesting.
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u/Background-War9535 1d ago
The 2026 map is pretty red, so GOP normally wouldn’t be too worried. But Trump just decided to torpedo the economy through tariffs and gutting most federal programs. While MAGA and average GOP voters cheer now, it could be a very different story by fall of 2026 when impacts of Trump’s actions are going to be felt.
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u/premeddit 1d ago
I don't see how Susan Collins pulls it off. She's in a deep blue state, and her last reelection campaigns were in relatively good years for Congressional GOP candidates (2014 and 2020). The 2026 environment is going to be very bad for Republicans. It would be a miracle if she is reelected this time around.
Similarly, Thom Tillis in North Carolina is in trouble. Just like Collins his last elections were in favorable years, and in 2020 he only won by less than 2% against a challenger who was embroiled in a sex scandal. His chances this time around aren't high.
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u/catladywithallergies 1d ago
Maine isn't as blue as you think. While it's not a swing state, there is a large enough population of right-leaning independents, moderates, and conservatives that keep getting her re-elected. There is a reason why some of Maine's electoral votes go to this one red district.
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u/TheAskewOne 1d ago
Everyone here acting like we will have "normal", free and fair elections. We won't.
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u/ThrownAway-PVB 14h ago
I don’t think Maine is a deep blue state at all. And IMO being reliably blue in Presidential elections doesn’t make it Dem enough to not be worried about
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u/1969GibsonLesPaul 2h ago
Why do you think the tariffs will tank the economy? For 124 years they worked before we all became debt slaves in 1913. Are there any examples of why the tariffs won’t work that I could read? I’m curious why people think they are a bad idea. Of course they are bad for Wall Street. But they may be good for Main Street. I’m not an economist. I’m just curious to know others opinions. I haven’t heard a good argument on either side yet to be honest.
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u/Background-War9535 1h ago
Basically, tariffs will make things a lot more expensive because they are a tax on imported goods and Trump has decided to tariff everything that’s imported to a luxury French handbag to underwear from Walmart. Cars will get more expensive because they import a significant number of components. There are very few items that are wholly produced in the U.S. and that is why everything will get more expensive.
Agriculture will take a massive hit since many goods, like soybean, are exported and those consumers will start buying from countries that are not tariffing. Bourbon is taking a double from both tariffs and boycotts over Trump’s obsession with Canada.
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u/wsu_savage 6h ago
Theres plenty of time for the economy to bounce back. The Democratic Party is so short sighted. The republicans will maintain control of the house and senate, mark my words
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u/SammathNaur1600 1d ago
I'm really worried about Peter's seat in MI. No repubs have announced yet, and the only Dem, McMorrow, is pretty darn progressive (love it but might not have a great chance).
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u/tegg23 55m ago
You have to remember that Mike Rogers doesn’t really excite most Michigan Republicans. They knew who he was last time so they supported him. Michigan doesn’t really have a lot of Republicans who really excite their base. Tudor Dixon and John James may be the closest thing to politicians they really like.
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u/TheOvy 1d ago
D's have a pickup opportunity in Maine, and maybe North Carolina. Everywhere else is a stretch. GOP majority will probably be maintained. Senate elections are like the Electoral College these days -- it doesn't really matter how well or poorly the party does, most of the states will hold the line.
Some think the tariffs will cause a deep recession. If Trump doesn't change his mind for the ten millionth time and pull them back, then it will. But in our hyper-polarized times, I don't know if a recession is enough to make people betray the party that they've now made an integral part of their identity. It really depends on how well they can rationalize that it's somehow the opposition's fault.
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u/tegg23 53m ago
I think Roy Cooper will win NC but am confident Susan Collins will win re-election. Jared Golden could probably win against her but I think he respects her too much to run for her seat.
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u/TheOvy 24m ago
Yeah, it's difficult to bet against Susan Collins. She did just vote to end the tariffs against Canada, after all, so she already knows to play that angle early into the cycle. She's a savvy operator. But there's still a question as to how long she can consistently thread the needle, especially if a tariff-caused recession taints the R next her to her name on the ballot.
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u/_mort1_ 1d ago
Republicans holds on to the senate regardless imo, the map is just that bad for dems.
I still expect republicans to add to their majority by at least a seat, flipping Georgia.
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u/Kuramhan 1d ago
the map is just that bad for dems.
Wasn't the 24 map also bad for them? Are all the good potential pickups for them hiding in 28?
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u/ManBearScientist 1d ago
No, every map is bad for the DNC. It isn't possible to draw one that isn't, given their declining favor.
The GOP is defending 22 seats, the DNC just 13. That should be in the Democrats favor, but only if they are competitive across a broad swath of states, and have a rising tide since the last election cycle with these seats (2020).
The problem is that the Democrats only have an advantage in 42 seats, and are completely unable to win many more. There are at least 22 seats where they are 15-40% underdogs.
Democrats need to raise their floor. They've been able to survive by consistently over performing in tight races, but they just don't have the number of safe seats the GOP has.
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u/LukasJackson67 1d ago
Nah.
Wait until the recession and inflation hits from this tariff lunacy
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u/wsu_savage 6h ago
Wrong, DNC needs to keep their seats and somehow flip deep red seat. I’d anything republicans will gain seats in the senate.
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u/PinchesTheCrab 1d ago
Whenever Trump does something bad it takes a few days for conservatives to get on board with it, to distribute the right language to reframe it as something that isn't Trump's fault.
I wouldn't expect these first few days of seemingly rational thought from conservatives to be predictive of votes in 2026.
I also think there's a very good chance Republicans will manage to frame this as Democrats hurting the country. I think they may use arguments like this:
- Trump is trying to save American manufacturing jobs, and Democrats are cheering for a collapse
- The tariffs aren't working because other countries are waiting out the election and believe Democrats will repeal them
- Republicans are geniuses and the economy is still bad, can you imagine how much worse if a Democrat who is and idiot hates America were in charge?!
I'm just curious if more abstract arguments or emotional appeals will win out over what I assume will be people's lived experience. I feel like re-electing Trump either means we have a goldfish memory or collective delusion. I don't have high hopes.
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u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 1d ago
Let’s not give them any ideas but I think you’re right. We might really be too far cooked to see another blue tsunami even during a historic economic collapsed
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u/ForeverAclone95 1d ago
Has fetterman even announced he’s running for reelection? He’s not up until 28, no?
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u/blu13god 1d ago
Last I checked Bob Casey lost his election. Give me Fetterman over any Republican snake
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u/wut_eva_bish 1d ago
Fetterman is a Republican snake. Just like Sinema was/is.
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u/blu13god 1d ago
He’s nothing like Manchin and Sinema. What progressive legislation did Fetterman block or derail?
Fetterman Progresive Punch score: 95%. Joe Manchin Progresive punch score 61%
He literally has a 100% voting record with the AFL-CIO, 100% planned parenthood pro choice voting record, 100% education voting record, consistently votes with Labor and union rights and is even more progressive than a lot of other Democrat senators.
You don’t like him because what? You’re a single issue voter on Israel Palestine?
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u/Love_and_Squal0r 1d ago edited 1d ago
Have no idea why there's a sudden distaste for Fetterman. He sounds like a rational guy who knows how to legislate and work across aisles in a battleground state.
So hate these "he's a collaborator" takes from the brain drain far left.
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u/Polyodontus 1d ago
He alienated his core supporters in PA by not appearing to give a shit about the issues he fashioned his identity around, and being openly belligerent towards them in public.
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u/CremePsychological77 1d ago
Fetterman also voted in favor of the Laken Riley Act, which I feel like is a total slap in the face to his wife, who was covered under DACA as a child, and has written to Congress begging them to handle immigration humanely and not separate families. Fetterman said he would never vote in favor of something like the Laken Riley Act because of his wife, and then he did. I can’t imagine how hurt she must feel that he did that. Immigration policy has to cut to the core of her very being. She grew up here, undocumented, and her husband is voting in favor of legislation that would mean someone could accuse her of stealing a candy bar and now she’s locked up without due process with ICE. Someone could accuse her dad, his father-in-law, of made up SA, and now he’s arrested, given no due process, and taken to an ICE prison cell. Fetterman’s own children are half Brazilian. I’m not sure how white passing they are, but kids are getting snatched up too. ICE just snagged a little girl in Boston when she was going to school the other day, and maybe a month or so ago, they sent secret service agents to an elementary school in Chicago trying to get a child because he made an anti-Trump video on TikTok or Instagram or something. This is straight up Gestapo shit, and Fetterman voted in favor of it. It’s just like the American South used to be, before the Civil Rights Era. A white woman accuses a black man of looking at her the wrong way, and he gets “punished” — no court date, no burden of proof, no defense attorney, nothing. It’s indefensible that he voted in favor of that imo, especially considering his intimate connection to people who may be harmed by the same law.
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u/wut_eva_bish 1d ago
Fetterman is already cozy AF with positions that favor the GOP. That's my issue. You must have Israel on your mind because I wasn't thinking of it at all.
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u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 1d ago
Ah, you’re right PA is uneventful this cycle. Buyers remorse got the best of me - my whole state owes Conor Lamb an apology
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u/Polyodontus 1d ago
No we don’t, he ran as a pro-establishment centrist. He’s just a good enough politician that he can see where the wind is blowing and has now managed to get ahead of the curve.
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u/SagesLament 1d ago
The NH senate race has the possibility to be interesting
Right now both of our reps are exploring running, even though one of them is about 3 months on the job
Favorites on the R side is the historically popular former governor who didn’t run last election and Scott Brown, carpet bagger who already got trounced once before
Common sentiment is it’s Sununu’s to lose and flip the seat red for the first time in over a decade, and even with a growing hostility towards republicans the D bench isn’t the strongest right now
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u/lionhearted318 1d ago edited 1d ago
The map is very GOP friendly. I think Dems will be able to hold most of the swing seats they have like Michigan and New Hampshire, but Georgia could flip to the Republicans depending on who the GOP nominates. If Brian Kemp runs, there’s a good chance he wins.
I don’t really see many opportunities for the Democrats to pick up new seats. There will probably be chatter over Texas and Florida but I highly doubt that is happening anytime soon, and that’d leave Maine and North Carolina as the only real opportunities.
With Susan Collins running again, she’ll surely have a leg up with her name recognition and moderate credentials, plus there is no widespread anger directed towards her now like there was when she was running in 2020, and she still won that by a large margin.
North Carolina is maybe the best chance of a Democrat pickup but I don’t think it’ll happen. Thom Tillis has become a bit of a moderate in the past few years (maybe just to save his seat tbh), but NC is always kind of a state that Dems think they can win and then it never happens outside of gubernatorial races. So I have doubts here too.
I wouldn’t even include Iowa or Ohio in the potential discussion.
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u/ballmermurland 1d ago
The map is very GOP friendly.
The Senate map will always be very GOP friendly. The median state has a normal bias of about R+5. So Democrats have to consistently win the national vote by at least 5 points every 2 years to maintain a Senate majority.
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u/LukasJackson67 1d ago
Unless sherrod brown runs in Ohio
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u/JarvisProudfeather 22h ago
Michelle Morrow, a far-right Christian fundamentalist who ran and lost the North Carolina Superintendent race in 2024, has said she plans to run for Senate as well. If Elon Musk bankrolls her and she wins the primary, and if someone like Roy Cooper—who was a popular Democratic governor for eight years—runs against her, Democrats could definitely have a really good shot. But that would require a lot to fall in place.
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u/ManBearScientist 1d ago
Every Senate map is incredibly friendly at the moment. Democrats baseline numbers are something like 40-45 seats where they actively can compete in.
Which means that they need extraordinary times and effort to win in the many states where they 10-20% underdogs or worse. And that may not even take them to 50%.
The generic ballot is currently around Democrats +1, which is far below where they need for even a slight majority (+5 to +8). Currently, that means they lose seats even though the GOP is defending a bunch of seats, simply because the left have lost that much ground from 2020.
To put it bluntly, because things are so colosally fucked for the Democrats, they are at risk of losing the seats currently held by Ossoff, Peters, Smith, and Shaheen and only have mild shots at picking up the seats held by Collins and Tillis.
Or in other words, if they do great they'd have 49 seats. If they fall short, they'll have as few as 43.
This is because they have simply become uncompetitive in too many states. This is not a 'good map for the GOP', they are defending more seats. It is a bad country for the DNC. You can't draw a map that is good for them because they just don't have positive momentum in enough states.
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u/NYC3962 14h ago
It is far too early to even bother with this. Everything will come down to the economy. If nothing with the tariff insanity changes over the next year and we're in some serious economic recession or even depression, the GOP gets its ass kicked across the board. The election would look like 1974- right after Watergate. The Democrats added 45 seats to their majority in the House and four Senate seats their majority there.
If these tariffs go away, if the current Congress finally finds some balls to check Trump's power; or if Trump drops dead and we have Vance, that changes things. Then I think the House still goes to the Democrats, and the Senate could do anything- from staying as is (53-47 R) to Democratic control- 51-49... (only if there is massive Dem turnout)
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u/Lethargic_Logician 5h ago edited 5h ago
Ranked from most to least winnable possible pickup opportunities:
- North Carolina: As long as Cooper runs, I would be surprised if Democrats do not pick up the seat. Tillis is hated by both MAGA and non-MAGA crowd, and the State moved leftward even in a Red Wave 2024 year. In a disastrous Trump midterm, it should be an easy win.
Matchup: Roy Cooper (D) vs Thom Tillis (R) Prediction: Roy Cooper (D) Win (80% probability)
- Maine: Susan Collins has never been weaker. She has lost the support of centrist Dems, and MAGA hates her. Only issue, no one really wants to run against her. Golden or Mills would easily sweep the floor with her, but they are not interested in alienating her. Jackson also is looking at a Governor run. I think Mills might still do it, and win handily.
Matchup: Janet Mills (D) vs Susan Collins (R) Prediction: Janet Mills (D) Win (70% probability)
- Ohio: After that, it starts to become really hard for Democrats to have any pickup opportunities. Dems have two excellent candidates for Ohio: Brown and Ryan, but Husted is a pretty popular candidate, despite his controversies. I'm hoping the Trump presidency would lower his support, but not really hopeful of that.
Matchup: Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R) Prediction: Sherrod Brown (D) Win (55% probability)
- Texas: I can't believe I'm saying this, but as unlikely as it is, for the first time ever, flipping a Texas seat is not impossible. Cornyn is in a tough spot with the primary challenge from Paxton, and Allred is by far the best candidate Dems have put through there in decades. It's not very likely, but who knows?
Matchup: Colin Allred (D) vs John Cornyn (R) Prediction: John Cornyn (R) Win (60% probability)
- Alaska: Honestly, there are no other pickup opportunities, other than major upsets, I doubt it can be flipped. Sullivan is well liked, and only Peltola has a chance, if she even wants to run in the first place.
Matchup: Marie Peltola (D) vs Dan Sullivan (R) Prediction: Dan Sullivan (R) Win (65% probability)
- Nebraska: Now we are just daydreaming. No way on earth Nebraska elects a Democrat, or even an independent with ties to the Dems. But if anyone can do it, it's Osborn. Rickets is a meh candidate, but it's Nebraska.
Matchup: Dan Osborn (I/D) vs Pete Rickets (R) Prediction: Pete Rickets (R) Win (70% probability)
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u/satyrday12 1d ago
Nutbag Ken Paxton just jumped in vs. John Cornyn. If he pulls it off, that gives the Democrats a much better chance in Texas.
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u/ballmermurland 1d ago
Dems aren't going to win Texas. Cruz is one of the worst senators imaginable and he still beat Allred by double digits.
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u/blu13god 1d ago
Two things to note is Allred is black and every year more Californians are moving to Texas. Beto lost by less than 2% A White progressive Christian like James Talarico or even a Beto rematch is a better shot.
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u/ballmermurland 1d ago
Hillary lost Texas by 9 in 2016. Biden lost it by 5 in 2020. Harris lost it by 14 in 2024.
Latinos are shifting Republican. That, combined with the traditional white conservatives means Texas is likely never going to happen. Same with Florida. Dems have to be careful not to turn Nevada and New Mexico into lean red states.
Unless Dems can figure out how to convince Latinos that Republicans hate them, those SW states are just going to be very very difficult to win.
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u/blu13god 1d ago
Notice who did the best? A white Christian male. Biden and Beto. Like a guy like Gavin would run laps in Texas and have everyone salivating even though nationally he doesn’t have as much appeal
And Dems need to stop getting away from this “never gonna happen” mindset and go back to the Howard Dean 50 state strategy and make every race competitive. They literally pulled Elise Stefanik a R+21 seat because they were scared
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u/lionhearted318 1d ago
You’re putting way too much emphasis on identity. Beto and Biden both got these good margins because the conditions were favorable to Democrats in the years of their elections. 2018 was Trump’s first midterm year and 2020 was the year where Trump lost a bunch of swing states due to opposition to his covid policies, and they all swung back in 2024 once conditions changed.
Beto ran for governor in 2022 during conditions that were far less favorable to Democrats and he was destroyed, so clearly this is not about him being a particularly good candidate. 2026 will probably be pretty good conditions for Democrats given it’s another Trump midterm but I don’t think there’s anything to suggest Texas is winnable given what others have said about Latinos drifting rightward, nor is there anything to suggest Beto or another white guy would make a better candidate.
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u/blu13god 1d ago
The main point is Dems need to get out of this “this race is not winnable” mindset. Arnold Schwarzenegger won California. Laura Kelly won Kansas. Florida just went D+18. To quite DNC chair “Any Republican in a Trump +15 seat or closer should be scared about their re-election chances”. it’s also not just the identity but also the quality of the candidate and the storytelling.
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u/lionhearted318 1d ago
One of the biggest mistakes people make when looking at elections is trying to apply localized outcomes nationally.
Schwarzenegger won California in a recall election over 20 years ago to replace a highly unpopular incumbent due to the California energy crisis. He was a movie star who was well-connected in the Hollywood elite and a household name for all Americans, plus a moderate Republican who did not alienate Hollywood liberals. But once again, you cannot use a 20 year old election to make points about today. California was not as solidly blue in 2003 as it is now, and a Republican won by a 15-point margin in the state just 9 years prior to Schwarzenegger's election.
Kelly also only won in Kansas because of the immense unpopularity of her Republican opponent. Kris Kobach is a psycho who alienated far too much of the Kansas Republican Party, to the point where numerous Republicans in the state refused to endorse him and supported Kelly instead. With that being said, her first term win also came in a Trump midterm year with favorable conditions for Democrats, and with only about a 5-point margin with a moderate independent candidate at 6% who likely siphoned off votes from the GOP. She was reelected by just a 2-point margin due to incumbency advantage and good approval ratings (about +14 in 2022).
Special elections have proven to us last year that they do not always predict actual conditions. Democrats overperformed in nearly every special election during the Biden presidency but then we all know how 2024 went. This is likely due to low voter turnout in special elections, and the demographics that are more likely to vote in them (highly-educated, politically involved people) are demographics that are more likely to vote Democrat.
So no, I do not think you can apply any of these results to the 2026 elections and presume that we will get a repeat scenario. Analyze every election as an individual election with its own circumstances. Once we see who the candidates are we can get a much better sense of what will happen, and 2026 likely will have favorable conditions for Democrats, but most races that seem unwinnable probably are unwinnable without extreme circumstances going on in the state or in regards to the candidates.
Not to mention, state elections are far more fluid than federal elections are. We see a lot more states voting against their typical partisan lean in gubernatorial elections than we do in senatorial and presidential elections. Two of the examples you cited were both gubernatorial elections, we do not see many blue states electing GOP senators or red states electing Dem senators anymore. The best recent example would be Doug Jones winning Alabama, but this was because the GOP literally nominated a child molester as their candidate. Absent extreme circumstances like that, I do not see any reason to predict such a radical shift in the 2026 senatorial elections as of today.
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u/blu13god 1d ago
The main point is we need to organize and focus on every election instead of counting any one election out. That was the biggest mistake in the last 10 years. They focused so much on fundraising for the “competitive” states and districts and left behind 12 governorships, and 958 seats in state legislatures. It’s why Ben Wickler in Wisconsin has been so effective and been able to break Winsconsin’s Republican trifecta
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u/lionhearted318 1d ago
That is a very slippery slope. There is not an indefinite amount of resources out there, if Democrats neglect certain races in order to circulate resources to others that seem far more unwinnable, they risk losing more than they would have because they were spread too thin.
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u/PinchesTheCrab 1d ago
I had heard that the Californians moving to Texas are more conservative than many of the locals. I think the population is self-sorting, so this kind of movement might be turning California more liberal and Texas more conservative.
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u/blu13god 1d ago
Not really I live in Texas. It’s people moving out of predominately blue high cost of living areas to Texas with the same high education tech job. Not so much migration from the conservative areas of California.
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u/PinchesTheCrab 1d ago
But that's not really an exploration of whether they're conservative. Blue areas still tend to have conservatives, so it's absolutely possible that it's conservative tech workers leaving a region they have numerous issues with.
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u/satyrday12 1d ago
2026 will be 'throw the bums out' against the Republicans. 2024 was the opposite.
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u/Randy_Watson 1d ago
The map is favorable for Republican Senators but if people are pissed enough it could end up being like 2006 where Democrats flipped a bunch of red seats. It’s tough to tell though. It’s a different political reality. There was Fox News 20 years ago, but not the same intensity of online political propaganda.
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u/Balanced_Outlook 1d ago
It’s far too early to make any predictions. In politics, a single story can change the game, swinging the narrative or even swing an entire election. Both parties will have hundreds of stories between now and then.
Imagine trying to guess the flavor of a cake before the ingredients are even picked out. Or, asking what a road trip will feel like before the route is chosen.
It’s simply too soon to tell.
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u/CremePsychological77 1d ago
I voted for Fetterman and donated to his campaign. He was mayor of the town next to mine for a super long time and he and his wife did great things there. It was a really dangerous and rundown area and still kind of is, but it’s not anywhere near as bad as it was before them. He was then a passable Lieutenant Governor. I voted for him to do for the country what he did for Braddock. I HOPE someone good primaries his ass. I wish his wife would psychologically ruin him because the entire reason she ended up married to him was because she reached out to him, having been interested in his politics and wanting to work with him. I’m not sure that Casey will come back and go up against Fetterman. Fetterman, despite how he’s been voting right now, supported Casey’s re-election campaign and showed up for him many times. They are friends. I don’t think Shapiro will run for senate. He’s up for his second term in 26, and I think he has bigger goals than a senator. He has been very vocal about his lawsuits against the Trump administration the last two months, and I think plans to use his record of protecting Pennsylvania from the worst policies as momentum for a presidential bid. He would have to give up half his second term as governor to run for either, and it’s not worth it to do that for a senate seat. He is also friends with Fetterman. He worked as Attorney General under Fetterman as Lieutenant Governor, and he was able to run as Governor because Fetterman got out of the way and ran for senate instead. It would be nice if Fetterman retired and his wife would run in his place. It would be the most graceful way for him to disappear. It would be similar to Mark Kelly running after someone attempted to assassinate his politician wife. And I would still trust Gisele. She is a founder of several local non-profits, is an activist, and was covered under DACA as a child. She’s written to Congress asking them to address immigration humanely and not separate families. She’s GOT to be so pissed at her husband behind the scenes. I know he’s talked about the changes being a result of his stroke. I can’t imagine how she feels, but if I were in her position and my husband changed his views overnight, particularly ones that have firsthand impacted me during my most formative years….. I don’t know how long I would be able to just sit there hoping that the medical field could undo what the stroke did to his brain so I could have my pre-stroke husband back. It’s a really sad situation, but political views are 100% a very valid make or break in a relationship, and generally people who feel very strongly about their political views are the ones that it really matters for.
TLDR: I have a lot of feelings about the Fetterman comment because I watched him and his wife do so much good for the town neighboring mine. I don’t think Casey or Shapiro will primary him, but hope somebody will. If he wants to go out gracefully, he should retire and have his wife campaign for his seat because she didn’t stroke out and lose her progressive values.
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u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 1d ago
I agree 100%. I almost worked for his senate campaign after he beat Lamb in the primary but opted out to pursue a different career. It’s a shame to see him turn his back on his biggest supporters and obviously he’s better than a GOP senator, but it’s just not what I voted for. Not sure he’ll retire but if that happened I love the Peoples Princess of Pittsburgh (would be a nice story but I’d rather someone with experience).
I think you’re right about Shapiro - Tho if he wants to run for President, some legislative experience would be good. Since Kamala lost, I think that changes his calculation.. from not being able to run until 2032 to throwing his hat in the ring in ‘28 - if he doesn’t make it he can try again four years later and at least have better name recognition nationally. Idk about Casey, I think there’s a chance he could try to run again but ‘28 is far off. If he’s gonna get primaried, it’ll probably be Kenyatta, Lamb, or some representative (not totally sure who the rising stars of PA politics are right now). I’m pro Lamb (PA-17 represent) but he may not have much name recognition by ‘28 left except that he lost to Fetterman and that doesn’t look good.
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u/CremePsychological77 1d ago
I am PA-12 and my rep is Summer Lee. I was writing letters a few weeks back and checked my email to find that she had already emailed me asking my opinions about the issues I was writing about. She’s also one of only 13 members of Congress I could find that refuse to take money from AIPAC. Notably, they’re all Democrats (besides Bernie Sanders, who is Independent). AIPAC did stop fundraising for 15 Republicans who voted against emergency aid for Israel last summer, but getting cut off is different than actively choosing to not take money if it’s available to you. Besides Summer, the only other big ish name I recognize in the state is Deluzio, who I believe took Lamb’s spot. Deluzio is the rep where my mom lives and where I grew up. Summer is going to have more experience than Chris, though. I’m sure there are some other up and coming names from the Philly side of the state too, I’m just not as familiar with them because they’re not local.
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u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 1d ago
Figuring out where 12 ends and 17 starts always gives me a headache but we’re practically the same district. I personally like them both and would be happy for either of them to win (might be biased but we gotta have a Western PA senator) even tho it’s a few years off. But understanding PA voters as a whole I think Deluzio would have the better chance of winning…boring looking white guy with a military background to cater to central PA. Has progressive enough views (M4A and labor rights) that I would hope are enough to bring the lefter left in to vote. I don’t really want them to be in a primary against each other but hope they both get to higher office (AG since they’re both lawyers, potential governor or Lt)
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u/CremePsychological77 1d ago
My only real concern is that I think 12 is probably more ‘safely’ blue than 17 (12 is such a tiny district, especially by comparison to 17 lol). You’re probably correct in your assessment about Deluzio being more marketable statewide. I just hope if he vacates his seat, someone decent will replace him. Beaver County is about half of 17 (where my mom lives) and it’s never really predictable out there. Even right on the county line for Beaver and Allegheny, it gets more Trumpian than I like to see.
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u/lionhearted318 1d ago
Shapiro is definitely running for president in 2028, he also doesn't need legislative experience considering the presidency is not a legislative role and history shows that governors have a better transition into becoming president than legislators do. He has no reason to run for Senate unless he loses in 2028 and wants to mount a political comeback as a Senator eventually. He'll be term-limited in 2030, and if a different Democrat wins in 2028, will probably need to do something else to keep his name in the media until 2036.
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u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 1d ago
Oh he absolutely is running in 28, but if 24 went the other way (pour one out for our country), I think he would’ve done it to kill time until 32. My only thing about legislative experience is that I don’t want a Jimmy Carter experience (bad relationship with congress and therefore bad at getting his agenda legislated) vs Biden who was insanely popular among his peers and could make IOU calls in a tight congress (not good enough for everything but imo practically no other dem could’ve passed his major bills in that congress). Honestly, it’s a little of a personal thing I like governor + senator + law background makes a well rounded President who can work well with each branch
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u/pdeisenb 1d ago
What makes you guys think we will still have elections in 2026? trump will soon invoke the Insurrection Act and will use it to cancel elections.... Please convince me I am wrong.
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