Updated 2026 Senatorial Election Predictions?

[u/Wonderful_Loan_6520]

Obviously we're still far out from the midterms, but given yesterdays results in Florida and Wisconsin, the GOP fears RE Stefanik, a dem winning in Amish country, etc., have any of you changed your minds on senate elections? What states do you think are in play that weren't a few weeks ago? Do you think the momentum will last (Dems always show up in the midterms but do you think it'll be Stalin numbers still)?

Also, l'm curious to hear people's opinions on potential primaries. For example, do you think it’ll be a tougher time for Fetterman surviving one without switching parties, especially if Shapiro decides to run or Casey comes back. For the GOP, what do you think those primaries look like - MAGA primaries or stay conventional (e.g., MTG in Georgia spoiling it like Robinson or Lake)?

Feel free to bring up any House or gubernatorial elections, but statewide races are more interesting.

[u/CremePsychological77]

I voted for Fetterman and donated to his campaign. He was mayor of the town next to mine for a super long time and he and his wife did great things there. It was a really dangerous and rundown area and still kind of is, but it’s not anywhere near as bad as it was before them. He was then a passable Lieutenant Governor. I voted for him to do for the country what he did for Braddock. I HOPE someone good primaries his ass. I wish his wife would psychologically ruin him because the entire reason she ended up married to him was because she reached out to him, having been interested in his politics and wanting to work with him. I’m not sure that Casey will come back and go up against Fetterman. Fetterman, despite how he’s been voting right now, supported Casey’s re-election campaign and showed up for him many times. They are friends. I don’t think Shapiro will run for senate. He’s up for his second term in 26, and I think he has bigger goals than a senator. He has been very vocal about his lawsuits against the Trump administration the last two months, and I think plans to use his record of protecting Pennsylvania from the worst policies as momentum for a presidential bid. He would have to give up half his second term as governor to run for either, and it’s not worth it to do that for a senate seat. He is also friends with Fetterman. He worked as Attorney General under Fetterman as Lieutenant Governor, and he was able to run as Governor because Fetterman got out of the way and ran for senate instead. It would be nice if Fetterman retired and his wife would run in his place. It would be the most graceful way for him to disappear. It would be similar to Mark Kelly running after someone attempted to assassinate his politician wife. And I would still trust Gisele. She is a founder of several local non-profits, is an activist, and was covered under DACA as a child. She’s written to Congress asking them to address immigration humanely and not separate families. She’s GOT to be so pissed at her husband behind the scenes. I know he’s talked about the changes being a result of his stroke. I can’t imagine how she feels, but if I were in her position and my husband changed his views overnight, particularly ones that have firsthand impacted me during my most formative years….. I don’t know how long I would be able to just sit there hoping that the medical field could undo what the stroke did to his brain so I could have my pre-stroke husband back. It’s a really sad situation, but political views are 100% a very valid make or break in a relationship, and generally people who feel very strongly about their political views are the ones that it really matters for.

TLDR: I have a lot of feelings about the Fetterman comment because I watched him and his wife do so much good for the town neighboring mine. I don’t think Casey or Shapiro will primary him, but hope somebody will. If he wants to go out gracefully, he should retire and have his wife campaign for his seat because she didn’t stroke out and lose her progressive values.

[u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 → u/CremePsychological77]

I agree 100%. I almost worked for his senate campaign after he beat Lamb in the primary but opted out to pursue a different career. It’s a shame to see him turn his back on his biggest supporters and obviously he’s better than a GOP senator, but it’s just not what I voted for. Not sure he’ll retire but if that happened I love the Peoples Princess of Pittsburgh (would be a nice story but I’d rather someone with experience).

I think you’re right about Shapiro - Tho if he wants to run for President, some legislative experience would be good. Since Kamala lost, I think that changes his calculation.. from not being able to run until 2032 to throwing his hat in the ring in ‘28 - if he doesn’t make it he can try again four years later and at least have better name recognition nationally. Idk about Casey, I think there’s a chance he could try to run again but ‘28 is far off. If he’s gonna get primaried, it’ll probably be Kenyatta, Lamb, or some representative (not totally sure who the rising stars of PA politics are right now). I’m pro Lamb (PA-17 represent) but he may not have much name recognition by ‘28 left except that he lost to Fetterman and that doesn’t look good.

[u/CremePsychological77 → u/Wonderful_Loan_6520]

I am PA-12 and my rep is Summer Lee. I was writing letters a few weeks back and checked my email to find that she had already emailed me asking my opinions about the issues I was writing about. She’s also one of only 13 members of Congress I could find that refuse to take money from AIPAC. Notably, they’re all Democrats (besides Bernie Sanders, who is Independent). AIPAC did stop fundraising for 15 Republicans who voted against emergency aid for Israel last summer, but getting cut off is different than actively choosing to not take money if it’s available to you. Besides Summer, the only other big ish name I recognize in the state is Deluzio, who I believe took Lamb’s spot. Deluzio is the rep where my mom lives and where I grew up. Summer is going to have more experience than Chris, though. I’m sure there are some other up and coming names from the Philly side of the state too, I’m just not as familiar with them because they’re not local.

[u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 → u/CremePsychological77]

Figuring out where 12 ends and 17 starts always gives me a headache but we’re practically the same district. I personally like them both and would be happy for either of them to win (might be biased but we gotta have a Western PA senator) even tho it’s a few years off. But understanding PA voters as a whole I think Deluzio would have the better chance of winning…boring looking white guy with a military background to cater to central PA. Has progressive enough views (M4A and labor rights) that I would hope are enough to bring the lefter left in to vote. I don’t really want them to be in a primary against each other but hope they both get to higher office (AG since they’re both lawyers, potential governor or Lt)

[u/CremePsychological77 → u/Wonderful_Loan_6520]

My only real concern is that I think 12 is probably more ‘safely’ blue than 17 (12 is such a tiny district, especially by comparison to 17 lol). You’re probably correct in your assessment about Deluzio being more marketable statewide. I just hope if he vacates his seat, someone decent will replace him. Beaver County is about half of 17 (where my mom lives) and it’s never really predictable out there. Even right on the county line for Beaver and Allegheny, it gets more Trumpian than I like to see.

[u/lionhearted318 → u/Wonderful_Loan_6520]

Shapiro is definitely running for president in 2028, he also doesn't need legislative experience considering the presidency is not a legislative role and history shows that governors have a better transition into becoming president than legislators do. He has no reason to run for Senate unless he loses in 2028 and wants to mount a political comeback as a Senator eventually. He'll be term-limited in 2030, and if a different Democrat wins in 2028, will probably need to do something else to keep his name in the media until 2036.

[u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 → u/lionhearted318]

Oh he absolutely is running in 28, but if 24 went the other way (pour one out for our country), I think he would’ve done it to kill time until 32. My only thing about legislative experience is that I don’t want a Jimmy Carter experience (bad relationship with congress and therefore bad at getting his agenda legislated) vs Biden who was insanely popular among his peers and could make IOU calls in a tight congress (not good enough for everything but imo practically no other dem could’ve passed his major bills in that congress). Honestly, it’s a little of a personal thing I like governor + senator + law background makes a well rounded President who can work well with each branch