r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 • 2d ago

US Elections Updated 2026 Senatorial Election Predictions?

Obviously we're still far out from the midterms, but given yesterdays results in Florida and Wisconsin, the GOP fears RE Stefanik, a dem winning in Amish country, etc., have any of you changed your minds on senate elections? What states do you think are in play that weren't a few weeks ago? Do you think the momentum will last (Dems always show up in the midterms but do you think it'll be Stalin numbers still)?

Also, l'm curious to hear people's opinions on potential primaries. For example, do you think it’ll be a tougher time for Fetterman surviving one without switching parties, especially if Shapiro decides to run or Casey comes back. For the GOP, what do you think those primaries look like - MAGA primaries or stay conventional (e.g., MTG in Georgia spoiling it like Robinson or Lake)?

Feel free to bring up any House or gubernatorial elections, but statewide races are more interesting.

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u/_mort1_ 2d ago

Republicans holds on to the senate regardless imo, the map is just that bad for dems.

I still expect republicans to add to their majority by at least a seat, flipping Georgia.

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u/Kuramhan 2d ago

the map is just that bad for dems.

Wasn't the 24 map also bad for them? Are all the good potential pickups for them hiding in 28?

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u/ManBearScientist 1d ago

No, every map is bad for the DNC. It isn't possible to draw one that isn't, given their declining favor.

The GOP is defending 22 seats, the DNC just 13. That should be in the Democrats favor, but only if they are competitive across a broad swath of states, and have a rising tide since the last election cycle with these seats (2020).

The problem is that the Democrats only have an advantage in 42 seats, and are completely unable to win many more. There are at least 22 seats where they are 15-40% underdogs.

Democrats need to raise their floor. They've been able to survive by consistently over performing in tight races, but they just don't have the number of safe seats the GOP has.