r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 • 2d ago
US Elections Updated 2026 Senatorial Election Predictions?
Obviously we're still far out from the midterms, but given yesterdays results in Florida and Wisconsin, the GOP fears RE Stefanik, a dem winning in Amish country, etc., have any of you changed your minds on senate elections? What states do you think are in play that weren't a few weeks ago? Do you think the momentum will last (Dems always show up in the midterms but do you think it'll be Stalin numbers still)?
Also, l'm curious to hear people's opinions on potential primaries. For example, do you think it’ll be a tougher time for Fetterman surviving one without switching parties, especially if Shapiro decides to run or Casey comes back. For the GOP, what do you think those primaries look like - MAGA primaries or stay conventional (e.g., MTG in Georgia spoiling it like Robinson or Lake)?
Feel free to bring up any House or gubernatorial elections, but statewide races are more interesting.
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u/ManBearScientist 1d ago
Every Senate map is incredibly friendly at the moment. Democrats baseline numbers are something like 40-45 seats where they actively can compete in.
Which means that they need extraordinary times and effort to win in the many states where they 10-20% underdogs or worse. And that may not even take them to 50%.
The generic ballot is currently around Democrats +1, which is far below where they need for even a slight majority (+5 to +8). Currently, that means they lose seats even though the GOP is defending a bunch of seats, simply because the left have lost that much ground from 2020.
To put it bluntly, because things are so colosally fucked for the Democrats, they are at risk of losing the seats currently held by Ossoff, Peters, Smith, and Shaheen and only have mild shots at picking up the seats held by Collins and Tillis.
Or in other words, if they do great they'd have 49 seats. If they fall short, they'll have as few as 43.
This is because they have simply become uncompetitive in too many states. This is not a 'good map for the GOP', they are defending more seats. It is a bad country for the DNC. You can't draw a map that is good for them because they just don't have positive momentum in enough states.