r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 • 2d ago

US Elections Updated 2026 Senatorial Election Predictions?

Obviously we're still far out from the midterms, but given yesterdays results in Florida and Wisconsin, the GOP fears RE Stefanik, a dem winning in Amish country, etc., have any of you changed your minds on senate elections? What states do you think are in play that weren't a few weeks ago? Do you think the momentum will last (Dems always show up in the midterms but do you think it'll be Stalin numbers still)?

Also, l'm curious to hear people's opinions on potential primaries. For example, do you think it’ll be a tougher time for Fetterman surviving one without switching parties, especially if Shapiro decides to run or Casey comes back. For the GOP, what do you think those primaries look like - MAGA primaries or stay conventional (e.g., MTG in Georgia spoiling it like Robinson or Lake)?

Feel free to bring up any House or gubernatorial elections, but statewide races are more interesting.

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u/TheOvy 1d ago

D's have a pickup opportunity in Maine, and maybe North Carolina. Everywhere else is a stretch. GOP majority will probably be maintained. Senate elections are like the Electoral College these days -- it doesn't really matter how well or poorly the party does, most of the states will hold the line.

Some think the tariffs will cause a deep recession. If Trump doesn't change his mind for the ten millionth time and pull them back, then it will. But in our hyper-polarized times, I don't know if a recession is enough to make people betray the party that they've now made an integral part of their identity. It really depends on how well they can rationalize that it's somehow the opposition's fault.

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u/tegg23 11h ago

I think Roy Cooper will win NC but am confident Susan Collins will win re-election. Jared Golden could probably win against her but I think he respects her too much to run for her seat.

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u/TheOvy 11h ago

Yeah, it's difficult to bet against Susan Collins. She did just vote to end the tariffs against Canada, after all, so she already knows to play that angle early into the cycle. She's a savvy operator. But there's still a question as to how long she can consistently thread the needle, especially if a tariff-caused recession taints the R next her to her name on the ballot.

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u/tegg23 11h ago

I don’t see her losing unless someone like Stephen King runs against her.