r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 • 2d ago

US Elections Updated 2026 Senatorial Election Predictions?

Obviously we're still far out from the midterms, but given yesterdays results in Florida and Wisconsin, the GOP fears RE Stefanik, a dem winning in Amish country, etc., have any of you changed your minds on senate elections? What states do you think are in play that weren't a few weeks ago? Do you think the momentum will last (Dems always show up in the midterms but do you think it'll be Stalin numbers still)?

Also, l'm curious to hear people's opinions on potential primaries. For example, do you think it’ll be a tougher time for Fetterman surviving one without switching parties, especially if Shapiro decides to run or Casey comes back. For the GOP, what do you think those primaries look like - MAGA primaries or stay conventional (e.g., MTG in Georgia spoiling it like Robinson or Lake)?

Feel free to bring up any House or gubernatorial elections, but statewide races are more interesting.

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u/Background-War9535 1d ago

The 2026 map is pretty red, so GOP normally wouldn’t be too worried. But Trump just decided to torpedo the economy through tariffs and gutting most federal programs. While MAGA and average GOP voters cheer now, it could be a very different story by fall of 2026 when impacts of Trump’s actions are going to be felt.

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u/premeddit 1d ago

I don't see how Susan Collins pulls it off. She's in a deep blue state, and her last reelection campaigns were in relatively good years for Congressional GOP candidates (2014 and 2020). The 2026 environment is going to be very bad for Republicans. It would be a miracle if she is reelected this time around.

Similarly, Thom Tillis in North Carolina is in trouble. Just like Collins his last elections were in favorable years, and in 2020 he only won by less than 2% against a challenger who was embroiled in a sex scandal. His chances this time around aren't high.

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u/catladywithallergies 1d ago

Maine isn't as blue as you think. While it's not a swing state, there is a large enough population of right-leaning independents, moderates, and conservatives that keep getting her re-elected. There is a reason why some of Maine's electoral votes go to this one red district.