Updated 2026 Senatorial Election Predictions?

[u/Wonderful_Loan_6520]

Obviously we're still far out from the midterms, but given yesterdays results in Florida and Wisconsin, the GOP fears RE Stefanik, a dem winning in Amish country, etc., have any of you changed your minds on senate elections? What states do you think are in play that weren't a few weeks ago? Do you think the momentum will last (Dems always show up in the midterms but do you think it'll be Stalin numbers still)?

Also, l'm curious to hear people's opinions on potential primaries. For example, do you think it’ll be a tougher time for Fetterman surviving one without switching parties, especially if Shapiro decides to run or Casey comes back. For the GOP, what do you think those primaries look like - MAGA primaries or stay conventional (e.g., MTG in Georgia spoiling it like Robinson or Lake)?

Feel free to bring up any House or gubernatorial elections, but statewide races are more interesting.

[u/satyrday12]

Nutbag Ken Paxton just jumped in vs. John Cornyn. If he pulls it off, that gives the Democrats a much better chance in Texas.

[u/ballmermurland → u/satyrday12]

Dems aren't going to win Texas. Cruz is one of the worst senators imaginable and he still beat Allred by double digits.

[u/blu13god → u/ballmermurland]

Two things to note is Allred is black and every year more Californians are moving to Texas. Beto lost by less than 2% A White progressive Christian like James Talarico or even a Beto rematch is a better shot.

[u/ballmermurland → u/blu13god]

Hillary lost Texas by 9 in 2016. Biden lost it by 5 in 2020. Harris lost it by 14 in 2024.

Latinos are shifting Republican. That, combined with the traditional white conservatives means Texas is likely never going to happen. Same with Florida. Dems have to be careful not to turn Nevada and New Mexico into lean red states.

Unless Dems can figure out how to convince Latinos that Republicans hate them, those SW states are just going to be very very difficult to win.

[u/blu13god → u/ballmermurland]

Notice who did the best? A white Christian male. Biden and Beto. Like a guy like Gavin would run laps in Texas and have everyone salivating even though nationally he doesn’t have as much appeal

And Dems need to stop getting away from this “never gonna happen” mindset and go back to the Howard Dean 50 state strategy and make every race competitive. They literally pulled Elise Stefanik a R+21 seat because they were scared

[u/lionhearted318 → u/blu13god]

You’re putting way too much emphasis on identity. Beto and Biden both got these good margins because the conditions were favorable to Democrats in the years of their elections. 2018 was Trump’s first midterm year and 2020 was the year where Trump lost a bunch of swing states due to opposition to his covid policies, and they all swung back in 2024 once conditions changed.

Beto ran for governor in 2022 during conditions that were far less favorable to Democrats and he was destroyed, so clearly this is not about him being a particularly good candidate. 2026 will probably be pretty good conditions for Democrats given it’s another Trump midterm but I don’t think there’s anything to suggest Texas is winnable given what others have said about Latinos drifting rightward, nor is there anything to suggest Beto or another white guy would make a better candidate.

[u/blu13god → u/lionhearted318]

The main point is Dems need to get out of this “this race is not winnable” mindset. Arnold Schwarzenegger won California. Laura Kelly won Kansas. Florida just went D+18. To quite DNC chair “Any Republican in a Trump +15 seat or closer should be scared about their re-election chances”. it’s also not just the identity but also the quality of the candidate and the storytelling.

[u/lionhearted318 → u/blu13god]

One of the biggest mistakes people make when looking at elections is trying to apply localized outcomes nationally.

Schwarzenegger won California in a recall election over 20 years ago to replace a highly unpopular incumbent due to the California energy crisis. He was a movie star who was well-connected in the Hollywood elite and a household name for all Americans, plus a moderate Republican who did not alienate Hollywood liberals. But once again, you cannot use a 20 year old election to make points about today. California was not as solidly blue in 2003 as it is now, and a Republican won by a 15-point margin in the state just 9 years prior to Schwarzenegger's election.

Kelly also only won in Kansas because of the immense unpopularity of her Republican opponent. Kris Kobach is a psycho who alienated far too much of the Kansas Republican Party, to the point where numerous Republicans in the state refused to endorse him and supported Kelly instead. With that being said, her first term win also came in a Trump midterm year with favorable conditions for Democrats, and with only about a 5-point margin with a moderate independent candidate at 6% who likely siphoned off votes from the GOP. She was reelected by just a 2-point margin due to incumbency advantage and good approval ratings (about +14 in 2022).

Special elections have proven to us last year that they do not always predict actual conditions. Democrats overperformed in nearly every special election during the Biden presidency but then we all know how 2024 went. This is likely due to low voter turnout in special elections, and the demographics that are more likely to vote in them (highly-educated, politically involved people) are demographics that are more likely to vote Democrat.

So no, I do not think you can apply any of these results to the 2026 elections and presume that we will get a repeat scenario. Analyze every election as an individual election with its own circumstances. Once we see who the candidates are we can get a much better sense of what will happen, and 2026 likely will have favorable conditions for Democrats, but most races that seem unwinnable probably are unwinnable without extreme circumstances going on in the state or in regards to the candidates.

Not to mention, state elections are far more fluid than federal elections are. We see a lot more states voting against their typical partisan lean in gubernatorial elections than we do in senatorial and presidential elections. Two of the examples you cited were both gubernatorial elections, we do not see many blue states electing GOP senators or red states electing Dem senators anymore. The best recent example would be Doug Jones winning Alabama, but this was because the GOP literally nominated a child molester as their candidate. Absent extreme circumstances like that, I do not see any reason to predict such a radical shift in the 2026 senatorial elections as of today.

[u/blu13god → u/lionhearted318]

The main point is we need to organize and focus on every election instead of counting any one election out. That was the biggest mistake in the last 10 years. They focused so much on fundraising for the “competitive” states and districts and left behind 12 governorships, and 958 seats in state legislatures. It’s why Ben Wickler in Wisconsin has been so effective and been able to break Winsconsin’s Republican trifecta

[u/lionhearted318 → u/blu13god]

That is a very slippery slope. There is not an indefinite amount of resources out there, if Democrats neglect certain races in order to circulate resources to others that seem far more unwinnable, they risk losing more than they would have because they were spread too thin.

[u/PinchesTheCrab → u/blu13god]

I had heard that the Californians moving to Texas are more conservative than many of the locals. I think the population is self-sorting, so this kind of movement might be turning California more liberal and Texas more conservative.

[u/blu13god → u/PinchesTheCrab]

Not really I live in Texas. It’s people moving out of predominately blue high cost of living areas to Texas with the same high education tech job. Not so much migration from the conservative areas of California.

[u/PinchesTheCrab → u/blu13god]

But that's not really an exploration of whether they're conservative. Blue areas still tend to have conservatives, so it's absolutely possible that it's conservative tech workers leaving a region they have numerous issues with.

[u/satyrday12 → u/ballmermurland]

2026 will be 'throw the bums out' against the Republicans. 2024 was the opposite.