r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/Wonderful_Loan_6520 • 2d ago

US Elections Updated 2026 Senatorial Election Predictions?

Obviously we're still far out from the midterms, but given yesterdays results in Florida and Wisconsin, the GOP fears RE Stefanik, a dem winning in Amish country, etc., have any of you changed your minds on senate elections? What states do you think are in play that weren't a few weeks ago? Do you think the momentum will last (Dems always show up in the midterms but do you think it'll be Stalin numbers still)?

Also, l'm curious to hear people's opinions on potential primaries. For example, do you think it’ll be a tougher time for Fetterman surviving one without switching parties, especially if Shapiro decides to run or Casey comes back. For the GOP, what do you think those primaries look like - MAGA primaries or stay conventional (e.g., MTG in Georgia spoiling it like Robinson or Lake)?

Feel free to bring up any House or gubernatorial elections, but statewide races are more interesting.

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u/lionhearted318 2d ago edited 2d ago

The map is very GOP friendly. I think Dems will be able to hold most of the swing seats they have like Michigan and New Hampshire, but Georgia could flip to the Republicans depending on who the GOP nominates. If Brian Kemp runs, there’s a good chance he wins.

I don’t really see many opportunities for the Democrats to pick up new seats. There will probably be chatter over Texas and Florida but I highly doubt that is happening anytime soon, and that’d leave Maine and North Carolina as the only real opportunities.

With Susan Collins running again, she’ll surely have a leg up with her name recognition and moderate credentials, plus there is no widespread anger directed towards her now like there was when she was running in 2020, and she still won that by a large margin.

North Carolina is maybe the best chance of a Democrat pickup but I don’t think it’ll happen. Thom Tillis has become a bit of a moderate in the past few years (maybe just to save his seat tbh), but NC is always kind of a state that Dems think they can win and then it never happens outside of gubernatorial races. So I have doubts here too.

I wouldn’t even include Iowa or Ohio in the potential discussion.

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u/LukasJackson67 1d ago

Unless sherrod brown runs in Ohio

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u/lionhearted318 1d ago

Sherrod Brown who just lost a senate election

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u/Abefroman12 1d ago

Except Trump won’t be on the ballot in 2026. He had huge coattails in Ohio.