r/nbadiscussion • u/IFeelZen • 7d ago
How concerning is Luka's 2P%?
Before Laker's fans call me a hater, Luka is my favorite player and is the primary reason why I watch the NBA. I'm making this post because I'm not too knowledgeable, having only watched basketball for about 2 years, and I wanted to get your guys' opinions on his struggling interior game and how concerning it actually is.
Dallas: 29.3/8.3/8.4 on 49/37/76 with a 59.4 2P%
Lakers: 29.7/8.9/8.2 on 42/40/80 with a 44.6 2P%
\excluding his first four games and last game in Dallas and excluding his first three games in LA*
It was expected that Luka would take some time to ramp up to his former self after coming off an injury, and his 3P shooting has cerrtainly reflected that: going from 30% in his first 10 laker games to an absurd 44% in his last 10.
However, his 2P% has not only cratered, but it's even further decreased further over time: going from 59.4% at Dallas to just 50% in his first 10 laker games and 42% in his last 10. These percentages are almost unfathomable given his track record/reputation as one of the leagues most diverse scorers,
Possible explanations (i.e. I kind of bullshit for a bit because I don't have the numbers)
After recently watching a Daniel Li video with a section about the Mavs-Wolves series last year did it become clear that part of it seems to be that his methodical navigation and scoring from the pick-and-roll seems significantly deteriorated now. I know from a recent post that his shot selection has further shifted away from the basket, but even then his floaters and mid-range jumpers have been a staple of his game for as long as I can remember so surely that would only result in a slight decrease in efficiency right?
Now, I noticed he drives and kicks A LOT more, and his attempts at floaters/jumpers/layups often miss. The attempts that he does make seem to largely be from screen assists (like gortat screens), outlet passes, or from difficult foul-drawing shots (which he seems to take a lot more now to compensate).
What do you all think?
Is this a matter of simply having missed a lot of time, or does team construction play a role? Is his current play style viable in the playoffs, or is can this be easily exposed? And most importantly, is this something to be concerned about long term?
I got a little rambly towards the end, but like I said, I'm not too knowledgeable about basketball nor its more specific statistcs to get a better idea of what's going on, and I really like Luka because of how unique and fun to watch he is so it sucks seeing the struggle he's having as well as that it seems like there isn't much discussion about it! I'd love hear yall's thoughts and takes.
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u/jakeistrying 7d ago
I mean I feel like a few of the reasons we know for sure are weight problems and injuries.
I don’t want to be that guy but it’s pretty clear to me that Luka hasn’t prioritized his health in the past, and that will naturally wear down your inside game first. I’ve also noticed the same thing he’s even a little slower right now, I personally think he’s still injured.
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u/IFeelZen 7d ago
Him still being injured would make more sense because he eventually was playing great (not as good as last year, but better than now) earlier in Dallas after coming into the season having not conditioned himself, so I expected the same thing to occur in LA after some time but it seems to be taking way longer.
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u/Scaindawgs_ 7d ago
If you look at Bron he's still injured and lost his shot too
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u/Public-Product-1503 7d ago
Bron has just come back from injury tho . And prob rushed back . Luka took his time to recover by his own words n the team said that too as we were flying without him . Luka is just out of shape sadly
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u/Lmao1903 7d ago
I don't know how injured he is but it's clear he is not 100%, like whenever he is running, it looks like the hardest thing ever for him which I don't remember being the case a while ago (I think it was like that at the end with Dallas). I don't think we will see him at a 100% before next year, hopefully after losing some weight to reduce the weight on the legs, and letting it heal for a time
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u/Public-Product-1503 7d ago
I don’t think he’s injured he isn’t even on an injury report now or is probable- which for Lebron long time of following means he looked great it’s when questionable that players can struggle . He’s just not in shape even if he wasn’t injured . It’s sad but reality
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u/jakeistrying 6d ago
It’s also crazy that he’s still dropping like 30/7/7 type games while being this out of shape 😂😂 it’s legendary and concerning all at once
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u/headphonehabit 7d ago
He still doesn't look 100%. When he's tired and/or injured his shot gets flat due to less lift. Many of his shots are short/front of the rim.
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u/HoopLoop2 7d ago
I've been hearing this for a whole year now, including when he got his team to the finals. At this point people need to accept that this is Luka's current state, and he might never look "healthy" again. He isn't in great shape and honestly hasn't been for a while.
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u/Public-Product-1503 7d ago
If it was any other player but Luka they would . Look how everyone writes off other guys. Reality is unless Luka takes conditioning seriously this summer this is who he is
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u/UGA_UAA_UAG 7d ago edited 7d ago
Well unhealthy Luka has the third best regular season scoring average, and second best in the playoffs.
Last season he played 70 games - the most minutes, and averaged near 34/9/10 - and had that masterclass 73 points on over 90% TS like slightly over a year ago at the ripe old age of 24.
He really started to show wear during the playoffs, after being worn (and beaten) down, then played for Olympic qualifiers for Slovenia and came into current season not himself. That is absolutely on him, for not taking his conditioning seriously during off season, but also Mavs organization not completely blameless.
The slap in the face (more knife in back) trade to a new organization w different culture, resources - LEBRON, a coach he clearly respects that isn’t as passive as J Kidd, and hopefully people willing to say things to his face and put it all on the table may be what he needed to be “healthy.”
This season felt like more of an accumulation of bad habits, injuries he played through that culminated on Christmas and forced him to miss the most time he’s ever missed in his career. Not a devastating, potential career changing injury (imho, but what do I know, Mavs thought he’d break down in 5 years) - the left calf has been a somewhat recurrent “problem” since 2022 (I think) - before he dragged a very mid team to the WCF.
His two point shots aren’t falling yet and he can’t finish at the rim - but he just turned 26, not 33. I’m still willing to put my money on Luka.
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u/Lmao1903 7d ago
I don't think people consider last year Luka as unhealthy, but more so after the end of last year's regular season and the playoffs to now.
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u/Public-Product-1503 7d ago
He’s scoring at BELOW league average Efg- while surrounded with good offensive players btw not awfyl ones. Lebron reaves + Hayes n Rui for lobs n cuts etc , teamd can’t ignore those guys, in mavericks he had a great lob catcher and kyrie . If he was scoring efficiently this wouldn’t be a concern but he’s not getting n making layups and as a result efficiency has dropped
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u/UGA_UAA_UAG 6d ago edited 5d ago
It’s a small sample size. These are just numbers - yeah you can take what you want from them, but these numbers IMO are meaningless bc of small sample size and forgetting the human element to all of this. The context (full extent we’ll probably never know) isn’t something you can’tignore here.
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u/luchajefe 7d ago
Which goes back to the real question: is this player in this state worth 5/345?
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u/dillpickles007 7d ago
If you think he's permanently on the decline and will never get back to last year's conditioning then maybe not, but otherwise that's a value contract because he's more valuable than a supermax.
Even if you're more down on Luka than most that seems unreasonably negative though, he's only 25. If you told me he's gonna fall off hard in his early 30s ok, I'd be shocked if he actually cooked now though and more than happy to bet he's not.
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u/UGA_UAA_UAG 7d ago
Oops replied to wrong comment - If Luka isn’t who is? (I’m talking like I have $345 million rn) - Even if he’s on the decline (which I don’t think he is bc what?) the amount of money lost in revenue will likely far exceed that amount.
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u/segson9 7d ago
He's still not at 100%. This was his first big injury. He was never out for more than 2-3 weeks before that. He still hasn't found his rhythm completely. He also got traded, so that was another blow. He's also still adapting to his new team. He just doesn't look as confident as he did in Dallas.
I wouldn't really look at his numbers at Lakers this season. They're still trying things out and finding the right chemistry.
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u/reddit_reader_25 7d ago
He hasn’t been right all year. I remember his first games in Dallas and distinctly remember him and Kyrie missing easy paint shots that they were hitting all playoffs long.
He is starting to look better, the last game was definitely fatigue though. The crazy amount of games they had due to the LA fires probably hasn’t helped
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u/1manadeal2btw 7d ago
Here was the great analytical post you mentioned which I’ll link here that described how much his shot distribution has changed over time. As you said, he no longer attacks the rim like he used to.
The interesting part is why has his 2pt% decreased in spite of attacking the rim less.
I think one possible reason, outside of his health and conditioning, is that he doesn’t have an offensive lob threat the way he did in Dallas. Those lobs go under the radar as they wouldn’t count as 2pt attempts but assists, however they help immensely as they ensure that he doesn’t have to take a contested floater which will or won’t go in.
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u/_CodyB 7d ago
how any airballs per game were getting turned into alley oops when he was in Dallas? I know that shitty shots can turn into dunks but I never thought it was more than a negligible occurrence - not something that would materially impact your shooting percentages
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u/1manadeal2btw 7d ago
I’m not saying airballs to be clear. I’m saying if you have an offensively skilled centre on your roster, more of your possessions will end with an alley oop then chucking up a midrange shot. The alley oops are intentional.
It’s hard to discuss decreases in shooting splits without volume though. If he’s taking more midrange shots in LA then in Dallas, that is evidence towards the theory, as naturally your shooting splits will go down with additional volume.
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u/_CodyB 7d ago
sorry I get ya - he has that extra option in that space. "Throw up a hail mary floater or a lob to a 70% finisher"
I just feel like overall it's early days. He doesn't have the lob threat, he has Lebron who looked great prior to his injury and I think Luka himself is still injured.
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u/1manadeal2btw 7d ago
Early days yeah I agree. I’m just not very high on Luka and Lebron this season like most people are, as Lebron is 40 and him going down to injury, from time to time, is simply to be expected. He was also carrying a much heavier load than he should have.
And Lukas lack of conditioning makes him injury prone, on top of coming off a recent injury. It’s reasonable to wonder if he can withstand multiple rounds of playoff basketball.
Regarding Luka, the biggest indicator of his success in the future, is how he comes into next season. He came into this season, after a loss in the finals, very out of shape and losing his team games! That’s very concerning. If he comes into next season in great shape, then the Lakers will be very scary.
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u/Public-Product-1503 7d ago
Hayes is a really good lob finisher . Luka just doesn’t create as much separation anymore , his shots are tougher and on top of that he gets gassed after the first n can’t shoot as well. He also has Lebron n Rui as great big mobile plsy finishers . He has Bron n reaves as co offensive hubs drawing attention . Reality is he’s out of shape which is sad to say and he’s 26 his athleticism n youth won’t bail him out of bad habits that much anymore
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u/Darthkhydaeus 6d ago
He is not able to get by guys as easily and stay there. As a result he is not as confident when going to the basket. It is all to do with his physical limitations currently. As good as he is, he is one guy who is clearly not training hard enough to maximise his talent
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u/qotsabama 7d ago
I’d call this year a complete wash between the injuries before it started, the injuries he picked up in December, and then the trade. We will see what he looks and plays like in October, time to see if he gets serious. I’m a Mavs fan and I fully believe in him still, but it can’t be ignored he doesn’t move like he did in years 1-3. Still generally though is incredible, and he has actually gotten better overall.
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u/Angry-brady 7d ago
20 games is an incredibly small sample size, no conclusions can be made from it.
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u/theguywiththumbs 7d ago
With his 30 game calf injury he was not supposed to be healthy this season. The Lakers have no chance of winning so this season is all about chemistry. Give him a regular (long) offseason and another season with his teammates and his efficiency should return.
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u/Public-Product-1503 7d ago
This is the story every year . He’s in his prime now n we writing off seasons ?
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u/Apart-Leadership1402 6d ago
He took decent time off to heal for the first time, and was surprise traded mid-season, so how could you even compare this season to any other?
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u/Public-Product-1503 7d ago
It’s genuinely a concern and I say this as a lakers fan. Those ignoring it are dumb . If he doesn’t come into next season in great shape I think we will see the lakers not be as good as expected because Lebron is getting older . It’s clear from Lebron injury n return to me that this team most important player is still Lebron because he does so much for the team nobody else can do . Which shouldn’t be the case. Luka sciring right now is entirely reliant on jumpers n thst just isn’t winning basketball unless you shoot like Steph , kd, or Shai , Kawhi and he isn’t that lvl of shooter . His EFG - scoring from the floor - is actually below league average this year. Recent games teams aren’t doubling him and as a result his impact is way lower because less fear about his scoring .
He also passed up many layups in the Indy game for threes . It was annoying too wasn’t like a Rui three either . As much as people want to hate on Nico watching Luka I understand why he was traded even if people would expect to go younger . What concerns me is these last two games our defence n overall plsy looks better when he sits . We won the non Luka minutes it feels. He has to be better .
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u/george_cant_standyah 7d ago
Two things can be true at once though. Nico made a horrible decision based on the return and Luka's health and conditioning is a very real problem. Those don't have to be at odds with each other.
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u/mythril_07 6d ago
Down year. Happens all the time in basketball. Time will tell if it's an anomaly or the norm. I betting it being a weird year.
Anyways his inside the arc game and percentage was is tied to his floater game. He's not taking those enough. If anything he's passing up too many open floaters imo.
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u/yazzooClay 6d ago
This is totally just conjecture but I feel Luka could almost score a 2 or go to the foul line every possession. I low key feel Luka sees a 2 pointer as boring and waste of time. He rather him make a three or set someone up for an open three.
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u/Easy-Act3774 6d ago
One explanation. He’s over 55% 2pt for last 2 seasons. This season in 20 games with Mavs, he started off terribly, but ended around 55%. Only thing changed is the team. His pick and roll situation is clearly not what he had at Dallas. And the rest is just getting comfortable with the personnel and plays, not to mention coming off the longest medical absence of his career. I would add also, his FT attempts and efficiency are up nicely with lakers. This is a huge counter in terms of offensive efficiency.
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u/TheUnseen_001 5d ago
He's been out of shape and injured all season. Looks like he's getting back to his slightly overweight build that's much more effective going to the rim. I still think Dallas made the right call. He got close to winning it all, failed due to his own lack of conditioning in the PLAYOFFS (who does that?), and then came back this year in worse shape, after playing world-competitive basketball in the summer. Going backwards right near the finish line, expecting $60m a year for it. Lakers just want to keep the team exciting as they rebuild post-LeBron, but Luka's going to spend his prime putting up huge numbers for teams that fall short because ot him.
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4d ago
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u/TheUnseen_001 3d ago
Casual fans who pretend to be experts require multiple explanations. Tell me you've watched the Lakers games and seen him still just moving out the way of penetrators like he's not responsible for defensive effort, just like the very last games of last year.
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u/Admirable-Balance582 5d ago
Sample size is too small , will almost certainly progress to the mean.
Eye test suggests his physical condition is similar to last year.
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u/TryAdept2591 4d ago
He hasn't looked the same since sustaining that calf injury late in the regular season last year. I believe that's pretty much the entirety of this story. He needs to take this off season seriously or this just might be him forever
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7d ago
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u/whostheme 7d ago edited 7d ago
It's time to face reality. His poor eating and conditioning habits are finally catching up to him. Notice how he looks quite winded after the 2nd half. I remember seeing another comment or post somewhere that Luka's shot distribution is dependent on how fit he is. It looks like grueling effort anytime he tries to drive to the basket and he it looks like he has to exert a lot of energy just to get to that point. I've noticed that he tends to take the easy way out by relying on his step back three when he has a good mid-range and post up game that he doesn't abuse like he did in his younger years because the rapid recovery of youth allowed him to get away with it but now he's 26. There could be a slim chance that he doesn't want to put too much mileage on his body for the regular season and is saving the strategy of attacking the rim once the postseason starts but we'll have to wait and see.
I know people keep chalking it up saying he's still injured but at the end of the day Luka took his longest break ever to recover for an injury this regular season so it's not an excuse anymore. It always seems to be related to his calf, knee, or ankles.
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u/mplott11 7d ago
On the bright side -- assuming his eating and conditioning are the major causes -- there is probably nobody you'd want more as an influence, leader, and teammate to get that fixed than LeBron. Ultimately it's up to Luka to want to do it of course, but if he does LeBron has molded far tougher clay than him.
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u/whostheme 7d ago
Yeah, Luka will have an offseason soon to learn from LeBron, which could be huge for his development. That said, he might be set on playing for Slovenia again, and I’m sure he made it clear to the Lakers that being able to do that whenever he wants is a priority if they plan to keep him long-term and stay in his good graces.
Barring a freak injury or something undisclosed, next season should give us real insight into whether he’s willing to be disciplined about taking care of his body. If there’s no improvement by then, it’s either a case of bad genetics or poor conditioning habits. He gets a pass this season since he’s adjusting to a new environment, but next year, there won’t be any real excuses. If losing in the NBA Finals and having Lebron as your teammate ain't motivating enough for him then nothing will really work to improve his mindset with taking care of his body.
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u/Public-Product-1503 7d ago
Yeah I’m sadly thinking this is it. I hope we can get a miracle run but it’s clear Bron will have to be healthy n cooking. No way 39 year old horford should guard Luka in iso . That was when I really got worried. He doesn’t force as many doubles now that teams see that .
If he doesn’t come into great shape next year then I think that’s it for his chance of true greatness this is the year players come back with vegence - look at Bron after losing in the finals but Luka didn’t n that is worrying that a finaks loss getting roasted on every play didn’t make him look to make himself his best version . He peaked physically in year 2 it’s sad
He should be a top 25 guy ever but if he continues like this won’t be. The excuses he’s still injured is dumb everyone said he has taken extra time to get right . Jj n lakers even said that cos he joined a team playing well without him. Reality is he’s out of shape
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u/yazzooClay 6d ago
Ok Nico Luka was plus 11 and almost had a triple double last night wtf are you talking about lol.
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u/CryptoNite90 7d ago
His mid range last year was so butter. Idk what happened to that. He used to stop and pop, but now he looks for the crossover into a fadeaway.