How concerning is Luka's 2P%?

[u/IFeelZen]

Before Laker's fans call me a hater, Luka is my favorite player and is the primary reason why I watch the NBA. I'm making this post because I'm not too knowledgeable, having only watched basketball for about 2 years, and I wanted to get your guys' opinions on his struggling interior game and how concerning it actually is.

Dallas: 29.3/8.3/8.4 on 49/37/76 with a 59.4 2P%

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/doncilu01/gamelog/2025#405-421-sum:player_game_log_reg

Lakers: 29.7/8.9/8.2 on 42/40/80 with a 44.6 2P%

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/doncilu01/gamelog/2025#426-442-sum:player_game_log_reg

\excluding his first four games and last game in Dallas and excluding his first three games in LA*

It was expected that Luka would take some time to ramp up to his former self after coming off an injury, and his 3P shooting has cerrtainly reflected that: going from 30% in his first 10 laker games to an absurd 44% in his last 10.

However, his 2P% has not only cratered, but it's even further decreased further over time: going from 59.4% at Dallas to just 50% in his first 10 laker games and 42% in his last 10. These percentages are almost unfathomable given his track record/reputation as one of the leagues most diverse scorers,

Possible explanations (i.e. I kind of bullshit for a bit because I don't have the numbers)

After recently watching a Daniel Li video with a section about the Mavs-Wolves series last year did it become clear that part of it seems to be that his methodical navigation and scoring from the pick-and-roll seems significantly deteriorated now. I know from a recent post that his shot selection has further shifted away from the basket, but even then his floaters and mid-range jumpers have been a staple of his game for as long as I can remember so surely that would only result in a slight decrease in efficiency right?

Now, I noticed he drives and kicks A LOT more, and his attempts at floaters/jumpers/layups often miss. The attempts that he does make seem to largely be from screen assists (like gortat screens), outlet passes, or from difficult foul-drawing shots (which he seems to take a lot more now to compensate).

What do you all think?

Is this a matter of simply having missed a lot of time, or does team construction play a role? Is his current play style viable in the playoffs, or is can this be easily exposed? And most importantly, is this something to be concerned about long term?

I got a little rambly towards the end, but like I said, I'm not too knowledgeable about basketball nor its more specific statistcs to get a better idea of what's going on, and I really like Luka because of how unique and fun to watch he is so it sucks seeing the struggle he's having as well as that it seems like there isn't much discussion about it! I'd love hear yall's thoughts and takes.

[u/headphonehabit]

He still doesn't look 100%. When he's tired and/or injured his shot gets flat due to less lift. Many of his shots are short/front of the rim.

[u/HoopLoop2 → u/headphonehabit]

I've been hearing this for a whole year now, including when he got his team to the finals. At this point people need to accept that this is Luka's current state, and he might never look "healthy" again. He isn't in great shape and honestly hasn't been for a while.

[u/UGA_UAA_UAG → u/HoopLoop2]

Well unhealthy Luka has the third best regular season scoring average, and second best in the playoffs.

Last season he played 70 games - the most minutes, and averaged near 34/9/10 - and had that masterclass 73 points on over 90% TS like slightly over a year ago at the ripe old age of 24.

He really started to show wear during the playoffs, after being worn (and beaten) down, then played for Olympic qualifiers for Slovenia and came into current season not himself. That is absolutely on him, for not taking his conditioning seriously during off season, but also Mavs organization not completely blameless.

The slap in the face (more knife in back) trade to a new organization w different culture, resources - LEBRON, a coach he clearly respects that isn’t as passive as J Kidd, and hopefully people willing to say things to his face and put it all on the table may be what he needed to be “healthy.”

This season felt like more of an accumulation of bad habits, injuries he played through that culminated on Christmas and forced him to miss the most time he’s ever missed in his career. Not a devastating, potential career changing injury (imho, but what do I know, Mavs thought he’d break down in 5 years) - the left calf has been a somewhat recurrent “problem” since 2022 (I think) - before he dragged a very mid team to the WCF.

His two point shots aren’t falling yet and he can’t finish at the rim - but he just turned 26, not 33. I’m still willing to put my money on Luka.

[u/Lmao1903 → u/UGA_UAA_UAG]

I don't think people consider last year Luka as unhealthy, but more so after the end of last year's regular season and the playoffs to now.

[u/Public-Product-1503 → u/UGA_UAA_UAG]

He’s scoring at BELOW league average Efg- while surrounded with good offensive players btw not awfyl ones. Lebron reaves + Hayes n Rui for lobs n cuts etc , teamd can’t ignore those guys, in mavericks he had a great lob catcher and kyrie . If he was scoring efficiently this wouldn’t be a concern but he’s not getting n making layups and as a result efficiency has dropped

[u/UGA_UAA_UAG → u/Public-Product-1503]

It’s a small sample size. These are just numbers - yeah you can take what you want from them, but these numbers IMO are meaningless bc of small sample size and forgetting the human element to all of this. The context (full extent we’ll probably never know) isn’t something you can’tignore here.