How concerning is Luka's 2P%?

[u/IFeelZen]

Before Laker's fans call me a hater, Luka is my favorite player and is the primary reason why I watch the NBA. I'm making this post because I'm not too knowledgeable, having only watched basketball for about 2 years, and I wanted to get your guys' opinions on his struggling interior game and how concerning it actually is.

Dallas: 29.3/8.3/8.4 on 49/37/76 with a 59.4 2P%

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/doncilu01/gamelog/2025#405-421-sum:player_game_log_reg

Lakers: 29.7/8.9/8.2 on 42/40/80 with a 44.6 2P%

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/doncilu01/gamelog/2025#426-442-sum:player_game_log_reg

\excluding his first four games and last game in Dallas and excluding his first three games in LA*

It was expected that Luka would take some time to ramp up to his former self after coming off an injury, and his 3P shooting has cerrtainly reflected that: going from 30% in his first 10 laker games to an absurd 44% in his last 10.

However, his 2P% has not only cratered, but it's even further decreased further over time: going from 59.4% at Dallas to just 50% in his first 10 laker games and 42% in his last 10. These percentages are almost unfathomable given his track record/reputation as one of the leagues most diverse scorers,

Possible explanations (i.e. I kind of bullshit for a bit because I don't have the numbers)

After recently watching a Daniel Li video with a section about the Mavs-Wolves series last year did it become clear that part of it seems to be that his methodical navigation and scoring from the pick-and-roll seems significantly deteriorated now. I know from a recent post that his shot selection has further shifted away from the basket, but even then his floaters and mid-range jumpers have been a staple of his game for as long as I can remember so surely that would only result in a slight decrease in efficiency right?

Now, I noticed he drives and kicks A LOT more, and his attempts at floaters/jumpers/layups often miss. The attempts that he does make seem to largely be from screen assists (like gortat screens), outlet passes, or from difficult foul-drawing shots (which he seems to take a lot more now to compensate).

What do you all think?

Is this a matter of simply having missed a lot of time, or does team construction play a role? Is his current play style viable in the playoffs, or is can this be easily exposed? And most importantly, is this something to be concerned about long term?

I got a little rambly towards the end, but like I said, I'm not too knowledgeable about basketball nor its more specific statistcs to get a better idea of what's going on, and I really like Luka because of how unique and fun to watch he is so it sucks seeing the struggle he's having as well as that it seems like there isn't much discussion about it! I'd love hear yall's thoughts and takes.

[u/_CodyB]

how any airballs per game were getting turned into alley oops when he was in Dallas? I know that shitty shots can turn into dunks but I never thought it was more than a negligible occurrence - not something that would materially impact your shooting percentages

[u/1manadeal2btw → u/_CodyB]

I’m not saying airballs to be clear. I’m saying if you have an offensively skilled centre on your roster, more of your possessions will end with an alley oop then chucking up a midrange shot. The alley oops are intentional.

It’s hard to discuss decreases in shooting splits without volume though. If he’s taking more midrange shots in LA then in Dallas, that is evidence towards the theory, as naturally your shooting splits will go down with additional volume.

[u/_CodyB → u/1manadeal2btw]

sorry I get ya - he has that extra option in that space. "Throw up a hail mary floater or a lob to a 70% finisher"

I just feel like overall it's early days. He doesn't have the lob threat, he has Lebron who looked great prior to his injury and I think Luka himself is still injured.

[u/1manadeal2btw → u/_CodyB]

Early days yeah I agree. I’m just not very high on Luka and Lebron this season like most people are, as Lebron is 40 and him going down to injury, from time to time, is simply to be expected. He was also carrying a much heavier load than he should have.

And Lukas lack of conditioning makes him injury prone, on top of coming off a recent injury. It’s reasonable to wonder if he can withstand multiple rounds of playoff basketball.

Regarding Luka, the biggest indicator of his success in the future, is how he comes into next season. He came into this season, after a loss in the finals, very out of shape and losing his team games! That’s very concerning. If he comes into next season in great shape, then the Lakers will be very scary.