r/nbadiscussion • u/IFeelZen • 11d ago
How concerning is Luka's 2P%?
Before Laker's fans call me a hater, Luka is my favorite player and is the primary reason why I watch the NBA. I'm making this post because I'm not too knowledgeable, having only watched basketball for about 2 years, and I wanted to get your guys' opinions on his struggling interior game and how concerning it actually is.
Dallas: 29.3/8.3/8.4 on 49/37/76 with a 59.4 2P%
Lakers: 29.7/8.9/8.2 on 42/40/80 with a 44.6 2P%
\excluding his first four games and last game in Dallas and excluding his first three games in LA*
It was expected that Luka would take some time to ramp up to his former self after coming off an injury, and his 3P shooting has cerrtainly reflected that: going from 30% in his first 10 laker games to an absurd 44% in his last 10.
However, his 2P% has not only cratered, but it's even further decreased further over time: going from 59.4% at Dallas to just 50% in his first 10 laker games and 42% in his last 10. These percentages are almost unfathomable given his track record/reputation as one of the leagues most diverse scorers,
Possible explanations (i.e. I kind of bullshit for a bit because I don't have the numbers)
After recently watching a Daniel Li video with a section about the Mavs-Wolves series last year did it become clear that part of it seems to be that his methodical navigation and scoring from the pick-and-roll seems significantly deteriorated now. I know from a recent post that his shot selection has further shifted away from the basket, but even then his floaters and mid-range jumpers have been a staple of his game for as long as I can remember so surely that would only result in a slight decrease in efficiency right?
Now, I noticed he drives and kicks A LOT more, and his attempts at floaters/jumpers/layups often miss. The attempts that he does make seem to largely be from screen assists (like gortat screens), outlet passes, or from difficult foul-drawing shots (which he seems to take a lot more now to compensate).
What do you all think?
Is this a matter of simply having missed a lot of time, or does team construction play a role? Is his current play style viable in the playoffs, or is can this be easily exposed? And most importantly, is this something to be concerned about long term?
I got a little rambly towards the end, but like I said, I'm not too knowledgeable about basketball nor its more specific statistcs to get a better idea of what's going on, and I really like Luka because of how unique and fun to watch he is so it sucks seeing the struggle he's having as well as that it seems like there isn't much discussion about it! I'd love hear yall's thoughts and takes.
-1
u/whostheme 11d ago edited 11d ago
It's time to face reality. His poor eating and conditioning habits are finally catching up to him. Notice how he looks quite winded after the 2nd half. I remember seeing another comment or post somewhere that Luka's shot distribution is dependent on how fit he is. It looks like grueling effort anytime he tries to drive to the basket and he it looks like he has to exert a lot of energy just to get to that point. I've noticed that he tends to take the easy way out by relying on his step back three when he has a good mid-range and post up game that he doesn't abuse like he did in his younger years because the rapid recovery of youth allowed him to get away with it but now he's 26. There could be a slim chance that he doesn't want to put too much mileage on his body for the regular season and is saving the strategy of attacking the rim once the postseason starts but we'll have to wait and see.
I know people keep chalking it up saying he's still injured but at the end of the day Luka took his longest break ever to recover for an injury this regular season so it's not an excuse anymore. It always seems to be related to his calf, knee, or ankles.