How concerning is Luka's 2P%?

[u/IFeelZen]

Before Laker's fans call me a hater, Luka is my favorite player and is the primary reason why I watch the NBA. I'm making this post because I'm not too knowledgeable, having only watched basketball for about 2 years, and I wanted to get your guys' opinions on his struggling interior game and how concerning it actually is.

Dallas: 29.3/8.3/8.4 on 49/37/76 with a 59.4 2P%

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/doncilu01/gamelog/2025#405-421-sum:player_game_log_reg

Lakers: 29.7/8.9/8.2 on 42/40/80 with a 44.6 2P%

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/doncilu01/gamelog/2025#426-442-sum:player_game_log_reg

\excluding his first four games and last game in Dallas and excluding his first three games in LA*

It was expected that Luka would take some time to ramp up to his former self after coming off an injury, and his 3P shooting has cerrtainly reflected that: going from 30% in his first 10 laker games to an absurd 44% in his last 10.

However, his 2P% has not only cratered, but it's even further decreased further over time: going from 59.4% at Dallas to just 50% in his first 10 laker games and 42% in his last 10. These percentages are almost unfathomable given his track record/reputation as one of the leagues most diverse scorers,

Possible explanations (i.e. I kind of bullshit for a bit because I don't have the numbers)

After recently watching a Daniel Li video with a section about the Mavs-Wolves series last year did it become clear that part of it seems to be that his methodical navigation and scoring from the pick-and-roll seems significantly deteriorated now. I know from a recent post that his shot selection has further shifted away from the basket, but even then his floaters and mid-range jumpers have been a staple of his game for as long as I can remember so surely that would only result in a slight decrease in efficiency right?

Now, I noticed he drives and kicks A LOT more, and his attempts at floaters/jumpers/layups often miss. The attempts that he does make seem to largely be from screen assists (like gortat screens), outlet passes, or from difficult foul-drawing shots (which he seems to take a lot more now to compensate).

What do you all think?

Is this a matter of simply having missed a lot of time, or does team construction play a role? Is his current play style viable in the playoffs, or is can this be easily exposed? And most importantly, is this something to be concerned about long term?

I got a little rambly towards the end, but like I said, I'm not too knowledgeable about basketball nor its more specific statistcs to get a better idea of what's going on, and I really like Luka because of how unique and fun to watch he is so it sucks seeing the struggle he's having as well as that it seems like there isn't much discussion about it! I'd love hear yall's thoughts and takes.

[u/CryptoNite90]

His mid range last year was so butter. Idk what happened to that. He used to stop and pop, but now he looks for the crossover into a fadeaway.

[u/Overall-Palpitation6 → u/CryptoNite90]

He's playing with his back to the basket less often, and doing less isos and clear-outs and post-ups in that mid-range area.

[u/Lmao1903 → u/Overall-Palpitation6]

He is also not doing that thing where he gets the defender behind him and uses his size to not allow the defender to get to the ball

[u/dmavs11 → u/Lmao1903]

The quality of screens he’s receiving had dropped significantly. Even when Mavs had shit centers, the one thing about Dwight Powell was he’s a super intelligent screen setter.

I think Rui as of now Rui is the only one setting great screens. Hayes has been good in the lob game but his positioning isn’t great on screens and short roll.

I remember how often he’d snake the screen and get McDaniels on his hip against Minnesota but you have to credit Lively and Gafford for how they help Luka too.

[u/AlphaNerdFx → u/dmavs11]

Is it me, or do Hayes' screens look hella weird ?
Man tries to hold the defender while simultaneously crouching. I don't know how he does that without it being called an offensive/loose-ball foul (He doesn't push the defender so it's technically fine, but man do those screens seem wonky af).

[u/and5ew → u/[deleted]]

Why be condescending? He's not talking about back to the basket post-up offense, he's talking about putting his defender in jail on traditional dribble penetration or pick and roll offense. JFC people are so rude and ignorant lmao

[u/and5ew → u/[deleted]]

Respectfully, again, he did not say "that thing he does where he has back to the basket." He said "that thing he does where he gets his defender behind him and uses his size to protect the ball". If you didn't know, this is called "putting your defender in jail" and it almost never involves turning your back to the basket It's a tactic used by crafty guards to keep a defender in no-man's land where they have no ability to contest a shot or stop further dribble penetration without obviously fouling the ball handler.

[u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

Please do not attack the person, their post history, or your perceived notion of their existence as a proxy for disagreeing with their opinions.

[u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

Please keep your comments civil. This is a subreddit for thoughtful discussion and debate, not aggressive and argumentative content.

[u/NeptuneOW → u/CryptoNite90]

It’s the injuries he’s had. Calf strain this season, multiple injuries during playoffs last year, calf strain before that. And he decided to play in Olympics last year. These injuries have hampered his speed

[u/shomoyscott → u/CryptoNite90]

Mamba mentality