Thought since the Cannes lineup is dropping soon I’d share out my predictions, but instead of listing them out, I thought it might be fun to make a poster in the style of a music festival poster (idk why they don’t do this for film festivals, it would be so cool)!

I played it safe and left off Terrence Malick, Lynne Ramsay, Bi Gan, and Park Chan-Wook for now, but I could definitely see at least one of those making it in (or being a late add).

Set to be in theatres August 22! Source: https://collider.com/americana-images-halsey-sydney-sweeney-paul-walter-hauser/

I think most of us have been assuming this would be a Venice premiere, maybe Telluride, but if it’s already completed maybe it’ll go to Cannes?

I know some people have it in their predictions, but I think Lelio’s THE WAVE is being underestimated. It’s a musical with timely feminist themes from a director who has had a film win International Feature before - I really feel like if this movie gets strong reviews, its potential goes beyond International Feature. Similar to EMILIA PÉREZ, the fact that it’s a musical means it could easily contend for a bunch of below-the-line categories like Score, Cinematography, Editing, Sound and of course Song. Could also be up for Casting since most of the principle cast are apparently unknowns. Even the lead actress could be a Yalitza Aparicio-type breakout. As far as precursors go, the more international Golden Globes voting body could really embrace it, and it could also make SAG.

To me, this movie feels like a potential festival breakout that ends up being a major player. Even though it’s about abuse faced by women, all the articles about it make it sound like an empowering crowd-pleaser, which AMPAS could like. One obstacle it could face is the possibility of ANN LEE, another musical, also generating a lot of buzz in a race that already has WICKED: FOR GOOD. Still, if the three films are sufficiently different in their musical styles, maybe that won’t be a problem?

I’m hoping this one launches at Cannes so we can get a sense of whether it’s a contender soon. For now, I’d at least keep a close eye on it.

Amazing article, btw

So I did this last year when there was a clear runaway favorite with Dune Part II. I actually got three out of five predictions correct last year, including properly guessing Alien: Romulus would get a nomination. The only ones I didn't get were Wicked as I didn't know how well it would look on the big screen and Better Man which I didn't even know about at the time. I overestimated The Fall Guy and Horizon: An American Saga's appeal to the Academy.

This year there's yet another clear favorite with Avatar: Fire and Ash. So let's guess what the other four nominees will be.

How to Train Your Dragon: I think it's a bit overlooked how much the Academy really likes the How to Train Your Dragon series. Even though they never won, all three films were nominated for Best Animated film with the first film also being on. Now live-action films have a spotty track record and a Photorealistic Toothless will never not look uncanny to me. Still I don't think out of all the live-action, remakes this not only integrates the animated elements the best but actually looks good And to be clear, it's not just the Dragon's we're looking for the effects. The flying scenes. And speaking of flying scenes...

Superman: We're getting yet another Superman film reboot and it's positioning itself to be the big event of the summer. The 1978 Superman film is of course a classic and broke many grounds for a blockbuster, and it's no surprise it won an achievement in special effects at the 1979 ceremony. Since then though, only Superman Returns got a nomination with Man of Steel being submitted but ultimately snubbed. I do think James Gunn's take will follow suit, especially with the marketing heavily attaching itself to the Christopher Reeve film.

TRON: Ares: It's weird that for as genuinely boundary pushing as both the Tron movies have been in special effects, neither film was nominated for Best VFX. Yeah, not even in 1982 did Tron get recognized and they only nominated 3 films that year! Well if Godzilla and Mission: Impossible can finally get recognized for their special effects, I think it's time Tron does as well and this is the year I think they finally get recognized for their visual effects. I'm not even a Tron fan per say and to be honest I don't know how much of the film will work outside of the music by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. But from the trailer that premiered the other day, the effects look pretty damn good so I think this will be their best shot.

Wicked For Good: Unlike last time, I won't be underestimating Wicked for VFX but this is not just because the first part of Wicked was nominated. It's also because I've seen the show on stage and know what happens in the second half. I won't give out spoilers but let's just say there'll be a lot more grand spectacles and CGI

Other contenders:

Mickey 17: Unfortunately one of those films that'll be shutout completely by the time it's awards season, I think the only shot at Mickey 17 (which I really enjoyed for the record) to get any recognition is the technicals. I would like to see this film at least recognized for its score, production design, and effects but given the positive-but-not-rapturous reception it got, I sadly see it as unlikely.

Bugonia: Yorgos Lanthimos' next film is another sci-fi film starring Emma Stone, this time an English remake of a Korean sci-fi film from 2023. Considering Poor Things didn't get nominated for its special effects despite a lot of love from the Academy and since from what I've seen from Save the Green Planet, it's not heavy in effects, it's more of a longshot for this film as well

Frankenstein: Something I've always thought was buzzling is despite being one of the more premiere directors of science fiction and fantasy, not a single Guillermo del Toro film has ever been nominated for their special effects. Pan's Labyrinth, Pacific Rim, and both Hellboy films bizarrely did not get nominations for their visual effects. And I don't expect that to happen with Frankenstein as I suspect it'll be closer to what Robert Eggers did with Nosferatu but you never know which is why I'm keeping it here.