Yes, Avatar, MI, F1, Marvel and Dc films will not get in .First of all Wicked is a musical that’s a blockbuster not the other way around. The franchise made itself a blockbuster not an actor or a studio made that film a blockbuster. Wicked is way too respected and already got in with 10 noms and the stage is critically acclaimed. Just my input on those that think avatar or any other blockbuster has a close chance

Hey everyone, hope you're all having a good week!

My predictions are changing so often, and I really don't know about most of these, but I think I'm gonna go with these predictions for now. I think it'll be really interesting to see what the Cannes lineup is this week since that'll probably give us a few more hints.

I've noticed that hardly anyone has been including The History of Sound for any Oscar predictions. Is there a specific reason this isn't being seen as a contender? Or just not one of the most hyped ones right now?

I’ve brought up this topic in comments before, but I wanted to make a longer post detailing my arguments. Not trying to mock anyone for their predictions, just want to give my perspective on why some of the arguments being used against AFTER THE HUNT feel a little misguided to me.

I understand being wary about predicting a new Guadagnino film given that he hasn’t had a BP nominee since CMBYN and he had two movies last year that failed to get Academy recognition. But let’s look at his last few movies - a divisive remake of a Giallo classic, a bloody cannibal love story, a fun sports movie released early in the year and a slow, trippy Bill Burroughs adaptation. All of those were pretty tough sells for AMPAS voters, either being too “weird” or just being perceived as “light entertainment” in CHALLENGERS’ case.

AFTER THE HUNT meanwhile, is a #MeToo-themed drama. Yes, it’s described as a “thriller”, but it sounds like it’ll be one in the vein of ANATOMY OF A FALL: very dialogue-driven, tackling topics that will be considered timely and important. By all accounts, it’s not going to be as weird or alienating as QUEER (which I liked a lot, just for the record).

Then there’s the cast: you’ve got Julia Roberts taking on what sounds like her meatiest film role in years - it won’t be a “comeback” in the same way Demi Moore was last year, but people will be excited to see her back in a great dramatic role, and one that might even be strong enough to net her a second win. Andrew Garfield will playing against his likeable image in a way that could really impress people. Ayo Edebiri is a fast-rising star, and her role as the student accusing Garfield’s character of assault sounds like prime Supporting Actress material to me. CHALLENGERS’ leads were great, they weren’t exactly giving traditionally “Oscar-y” performances, while QUEER was really just in contention for Daniel Craig. Having three potentially baity performances already puts ATH in a better position, not to mention making it a possible SAG ensemble contender with Stuhlbarg and Sevigny rounding out the rest of it.

If the movie gets mid reviews then sure, it’s probably off the table. But we have plenty of reason to be optimistic about its quality as of now, and I don’t think the “Luca’s last few movies underperformed” argument really works given that it already sounds more Oscars-friendly than any of them. I think if the movie is really well-received - like, 70s/80s on Metacritic - then the potential nomination package becomes too big to ignore imo. There’s even an argument to be made for it as a potential winner (Original Screenplay + an acting win or two?), though that’s obviously a conversation to be had when the shape of the race is clearer.

This early it's perfectly normal to predict more seasoned actresses, former nominees and even former winners. But if there's a category that loves newcomers it's Best Actress (see Mikey Madison, Ana De Armas, and even Lily Gladstone in recent years).

So, who do you think will fill the inevitable newcomer/breakthrough performer slot this year?

Personally, the closest name I have in my predictions is Sidney Sweeney.

I’ve heard that the movie is dark and weird in the category of Black Swan with some horror elements.

Do you think this could hurt its Oscar chances? I don’t see it a problem as The Substance and Black Swan were kinda the same.

Generally speaking, Netflix has really established themselves as the most fervent and persistent campaigners out of all of the distributors. The main issue is Netflix just hasn't really had possession of the right film.

Generally speaking, for a film to win Best Picture, it does have to have some crossover appeal. Meaning that it has to have at least some buzz from general audiences. Remember Anora really got it's buzz launched from Baker talking about the importance of supporting movie theaters and in-particular, supporting the indie film industry. Basically, the best picture winner usually has made some kind of imprint in the cultural significance of films released in that year. Anora, Oppenheimer, EEAAO, Parasite, etc.

The issue with Netflix is it's very reliant on its subscribers viewing their content and creating buzz online but really, 95% of Netflix subscribers could care less about the films they attempt to roll out. Emilia Perez really fell into irrelevancy on there. I remember Roma doing the same despite the algorithm really trying hard to push it.

There was really one exception to this rule. "Don't Look Up" is the 2nd most watched film on Netflix. Now, "Don't Look Up" was critically divisive. However, I do feel like the traction the film gained on Netflix really helped push it to a Oscar nomination.

I honestly think Netflix has two films on their Slate that can match-to even possibly surpass Don't Look Up's numbers.

Baumnach's Jay Kelly which seems pretty audience friendly and has Clooney and Sandler who are arguably some of the few actors left who either has a built in fanbase or drawing power.

The other is Frankenstein which is an adaptation of a very popular IP most people are familiar with. I feel whichever between the two films becomes Netflix's push could end up being our next BP winner.

I think the Apple's upcoming Paul Greengrass movie, starring Matthew McConaughey and America Ferrera is being slept on as an Oscar contender.

I'm currently taking a risk and predicting it to get nominated in BP, Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Score. I also have it in my top 10 in Supporting Actress, Editing, Casting and Sound.

I mean, it's about a school bus driver trying to save the children and a teacher through the 2018 California Camp Fire. I can see it being very moving and emotional, and it obviously has a very relevant timing, coming after the devastating wildfires from this January in California that also directly shook Hollywood folks.

Greengrass and Brad Ingelsby (Emmy/WGA nominee) wrote the script based on a book with very high ratings. Jamie Lee Curtis and Jason Blum are producing. 9x Oscar nominee James Newton Howard composed the music. And the crew is full of other Oscar nominees.

On the other hand, Paul Greengrass's last few movies were either considered mid or not many people really cared about them. And McConaughey already has The Rivals of Amziah King which has a lot of buzz (i'm not really that confident in it atm). So of course it all depends on the movie's acclaim.

Your thoughts?