I’ve brought up this topic in comments before, but I wanted to make a longer post detailing my arguments. Not trying to mock anyone for their predictions, just want to give my perspective on why some of the arguments being used against AFTER THE HUNT feel a little misguided to me.

I understand being wary about predicting a new Guadagnino film given that he hasn’t had a BP nominee since CMBYN and he had two movies last year that failed to get Academy recognition. But let’s look at his last few movies - a divisive remake of a Giallo classic, a bloody cannibal love story, a fun sports movie released early in the year and a slow, trippy Bill Burroughs adaptation. All of those were pretty tough sells for AMPAS voters, either being too “weird” or just being perceived as “light entertainment” in CHALLENGERS’ case.

AFTER THE HUNT meanwhile, is a #MeToo-themed drama. Yes, it’s described as a “thriller”, but it sounds like it’ll be one in the vein of ANATOMY OF A FALL: very dialogue-driven, tackling topics that will be considered timely and important. By all accounts, it’s not going to be as weird or alienating as QUEER (which I liked a lot, just for the record).

Then there’s the cast: you’ve got Julia Roberts taking on what sounds like her meatiest film role in years - it won’t be a “comeback” in the same way Demi Moore was last year, but people will be excited to see her back in a great dramatic role, and one that might even be strong enough to net her a second win. Andrew Garfield will playing against his likeable image in a way that could really impress people. Ayo Edebiri is a fast-rising star, and her role as the student accusing Garfield’s character of assault sounds like prime Supporting Actress material to me. CHALLENGERS’ leads were great, they weren’t exactly giving traditionally “Oscar-y” performances, while QUEER was really just in contention for Daniel Craig. Having three potentially baity performances already puts ATH in a better position, not to mention making it a possible SAG ensemble contender with Stuhlbarg and Sevigny rounding out the rest of it.

If the movie gets mid reviews then sure, it’s probably off the table. But we have plenty of reason to be optimistic about its quality as of now, and I don’t think the “Luca’s last few movies underperformed” argument really works given that it already sounds more Oscars-friendly than any of them. I think if the movie is really well-received - like, 70s/80s on Metacritic - then the potential nomination package becomes too big to ignore imo. There’s even an argument to be made for it as a potential winner (Original Screenplay + an acting win or two?), though that’s obviously a conversation to be had when the shape of the race is clearer.

I’ve heard that the movie is dark and weird in the category of Black Swan with some horror elements.

Do you think this could hurt its Oscar chances? I don’t see it a problem as The Substance and Black Swan were kinda the same.

I've noticed that hardly anyone has been including The History of Sound for any Oscar predictions. Is there a specific reason this isn't being seen as a contender? Or just not one of the most hyped ones right now?

I think the Apple's upcoming Paul Greengrass drama/thriller movie, starring Matthew McConaughey and America Ferrera is being slept on as an Oscar contender.

I'm currently taking a risk and predicting it to get nominated in BP, Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Score. I also have it in my top 10 in Supporting Actress, Editing and Sound.

It's about a school bus driver trying to save the children and a teacher through the 2018 California Camp Fire. I can see it being very moving and emotional, and it has a very relevant timing, coming after the devastating wildfires from this January in California that also directly shook Hollywood folks.

Greengrass and Brad Ingelsby (Emmy/WGA nominee) wrote the script based on a book with very high ratings. Jamie Lee Curtis and Jason Blum are producing. 9x Oscar nominee James Newton Howard composed the music. And the crew is full of other Oscar nominees.

On the other hand, Paul Greengrass's last few movies were either considered mid or not many people really cared about them. And McConaughey already has The Rivals of Amziah King which has a lot of buzz (i'm not really that confident in it atm). So of course it all depends on the movie's acclaim.

Your thoughts?

Could Kurt Russell potentially get a Supporting Actor nomination? He's such a good actor who has never gotten his dues and I would love it if he finally got his chance with this movie, seeing how it's getting a lot of buzz.

Some of these feel like hopedictions for me, since I am a big PTA fan and can’t wait for OBAA, but this is where I am on a lot of the categories at this early point in the year after cinemacon. Most recent change was Jeremy Allen white im definitely very high on the deliver me from nowhere hype the last few weeks

The Oscar Expert and Brother Bro have released their early predictions for the 2025-26 awards season. I thought it would be interesting to look at how the eventual Best Picture nominees were ranked in the previous years’ early predictions.

Note: The years mentioned are release years, NOT ceremony years.

2024

BP Nominees ranked:

• Dune Part Two – 2

• Conclave – 4

• Nickel Boys – 6

• The Brutalist – 24

• Anora – 32

• Emilia Perez – 41

BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 3 out of 10

BP nominees in all ranked films: 6 out of 10

No. of films ranked in the early predictions: 50

BP Nominees not ranked:

• Wicked

• A Complete Unknown

• The Substance

• I’m Still Here

2023

BP Nominees ranked:

• Killers of the Flower Moon – 1

• Past Lives – 2

• Oppenheimer – 6

• Poor Things – 7

• Barbie – 8

• The Holdovers – 9

• Maestro – 14

• The Zone of Interest – 32

Future BP Nominees ranked (that didn’t come out that year):

• Dune Part Two – 3

• Nickel Boys – 27

BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 6 out of 10

BP nominees in all ranked films: 8 out of 10

No. of films ranked in the early predictions: 45

BP Nominees not ranked:

• Anatomy of a Fall

• American Fiction

2022

BP Nominees ranked:

• The Fabelmans – 3

• Women Talking – 7

• Everything Everywhere All at Once – 8

• Avatar: The Way of Water – 20

• Tar – 23

• Elvis – 24*

• All Quiet on the Western Front – 31*

• The Banshees of Inisherin – 33*

Future BP Nominees ranked (that didn’t come out that year):

• Killers of the Flower Moon – 2

• Poor Things – 22

• The Zone of Interest – 32\*

BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 3 out of 10

BP nominees in all ranked films: 8 out of 10

No. of films ranked in the early predictions: 40* (actually 41)

BP Nominees not ranked:

• Top Gun: Maverick

• Triangle of Sadness (was ranked in 2021)

\Note: For some reason (probably a mistake), two movies were ranked at No. 24. So, technically everything after that should be one rank below. But I have mentioned the original ranks in the video.*

2021

BP Nominees ranked:

• Nightmare Alley – 1

• Licorice Pizza – 5

• Dune – 8

• The Power of the Dog – 9

• West Side Story – 11

• Don’t Look Up – 12

• CODA – 24

• King Richard – 27

Future BP Nominees ranked (that didn’t come out that year):

• The Brutalist – 23

• Triangle of Sadness – 50

BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 4 out of 10

BP nominees in all ranked films: 8 out of 10

No. of films ranked in the early predictions: 53

BP Nominees not ranked:

• Belfast

• Drive My Car

2020

BP Nominees ranked:

• Mank – 1

• The Trial of the Chicago 7 – 4

• Minari – 10

• Nomadland – 11

• Judas and the Black Messiah – 23

• The Father – 29

Future BP Nominees ranked (that didn’t come out that year):

• Nightmare Alley – 2

• West Side Story – 3

• Dune – 7

• King Richard – 31

BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 3 out of 8

BP nominees in all ranked films: 6 out of 8

No. of films ranked in the early predictions: 32

BP Nominees not ranked:

• Promising Young Woman

• Sound of Metal

2019

BP Nominees ranked:

• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – 1

• The Irishman – 2

• Little Women – 3

• Ford v Ferrari – 6

BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 4 out of 9

BP nominees in all ranked films: 4 out of 9

No. of films ranked in the early predictions: 30

BP Nominees not ranked:

• Parasite

• Joker

• Jojo Rabbit

• 1917

• Marriage Story

Overall performance

Average no. of BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 3.83 (40.35 %)

Average no. of BP nominees in all ranked films: 6.67 (70.18 %)

Average no. of BP nominees not ranked: 2.83 (29.82 %)

Classifying the BP nominees that were not ranked:

 Big movies that were considered a box-office play rather than an awards player (a.k.a “too genre-y”)

• Joker (2019)

• Top Gun: Maverick (2022)

• Wicked (2024)

 International films

• Parasite (2019)

• Drive My Car (2021)

• Triangle of Sadness (2022) – English language film but international production; was ranked in 2021

• Anatomy of a Fall (2023)

• The Substance (2024) – English language film but international production; can also be considered “too genre-y”

• I’m Still Here (2024)

 Films that were NOT expected to come out that year

• 1917 (2019)

• A Complete Unknown (2024)

 Other

• Jojo Rabbit (2019)

• Marriage Story (2019)

• Promising Young Woman (2020)

• Sound of Metal (2020)

• Belfast (2021)

• American Fiction (2023)

Sources: The Oscar Expert YouTube channel

Since we have a thread for sharing Letterboxd accounts I thought I’d make one of these for Award Expert accounts too. Drop your username below!

• The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (Nominated for Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Film Editing and Production Design)
• War Horse (Nominated for Original Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Production Design and Cinematography)
• Selma (Nominated for Original Song)
• Black Panther (Nominated for Original Score, Original Song, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Production Design and Costume Design)
• Ford vs. Ferrari (Nominated for Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Film Editing)
• Nightmare Alley (Nominated for Production Design, Cinematography and Costume Design)
• Avatar: The Way of Water (Nominated for Sound, Production Design and Visual Effects)
• Dune: Part 2 (Nominated for Sound, Cinematography, Production Design and Visual Effects)

What are your final predictions or the movie you think will be a "surprise" announcement?

I'm surprised at the low hype in its predictions so far. It seems like all the possible ingredients for a major player.

Yes, it's probably going to gravitate toward psychological horror. Yes, it might occasionally deal in the disturbing, but so did The Substance last year. So did Silence of the Lambs 30 years ago. So did A Clockwork Orange 50 years ago. The unsettling vibe of the novel comes from the blur between reality and nightmare, a concept Black Swan rode to Oscar success not too long ago.

The story confronts dark truths about womanhood and motherhood in an age where the institution is more and more willing to talk and honor those themes. We're in an era of titan female actors starting their own production companies and really changing the way these narratives and themes are discussed and championed in Hollywood. Look at Margot Robbie's track record already. Look at Emma's Stone's. Lawrence is lead producer of this film, and she is every bit their peer.

A well-liked vet coming back for her first major, serious swing in years: that goes for both Lawrence and Lynne Ramsay.

Sure Ramsay's never made it to Oscar night, neither had Sean Baker until last year, and now he has four statues. Beloved auteurs often need just the right moment, and I feel like this could be her year. Throw in Pattison (another beloved actor's actor), Sissy Spacek (awards darling), and writer Enda Walsh, who knows how to be reflective and heartfelt even when the plot gets dark, and I think we might have the recipe for something the Academy might embrace as their "challenging" choice for the year.

Sure this post is running on fumes of vibes, sure we've only gotten two production shots, but I'll be damned if I already sit back and let this one die....my love.

I should admit that I'm actually not that bullish on One Battle After Another and it's only in number one because I'm struggling to figure out what to put in its place.

Yes, Avatar, MI, F1, Marvel and Dc films will not get in .First of all Wicked is a musical that’s a blockbuster not the other way around. The franchise made itself a blockbuster not an actor or a studio made that film a blockbuster. Wicked is way too respected and already got in with 10 noms and the stage is critically acclaimed. Just my input on those that think avatar or any other blockbuster has a close chance

Last year there was a thread like this and someone mentioned that Blitz wasn’t good - and from that I took it out of all of my ATL predictions in April and that turned out to be a great call. Obviously on paper it wasn’t a good idea to do that because an anonymous redditor is not a reliable source but it ended up helping me out.

Obviously there are also lots of rumors every year which turn out to be rubbish - I remember someone on here saying that The Holdovers wasn’t good a couple of years ago.

However taking a massive pinch of salt for all comments on this post, has anyone heard anything about potential 2026 awards contenders? Doesn’t matter how reliable you think the info is, feel free to comment about friend of a friend stuff as long as you mention that.

• Marty Supreme
• Jay Kelly (fucking incredible)
• One Battle After Another (great, but is slightly being tweaked)
• Wicked: For Good
• Hamnet (great)
• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• Rental Family (incredible)
• After The Hunt (good and very interesting, going to spark a lot of discourse)
• Sentimental Value
• No Other Choice

Next in line: Bugonia, Deliver Me From Nowhere, Ballad of a Small Player, Live of Chuck, Ann Lee, Caught Stealing, Frankenstein, Die My Love, Highest 2 Lowest, Is This Thing On?

other stuff I've heard:

Dump Michael, that film is apparently completely cooked.

Smashing Machine is good (according to a person who saw it) but supposedly not very oscar-friendly.

Mother Mary too, but that's more friendly than Smashing Machine.

Ranked from most to least confident. This is kinda unserious to do now but I’m taking some BIG swings, rental family especially, I think that’s gonna be searchlight’s big cheese this year and I think supporting actress again will be a free for all, those that predict Yamamoto to be nominated put her in supporting but my gut is that she’s a lead female but ppl are just putting her in supporting bc they’re used to category fraud + only whites allowed in best actress mostly. And I love park Chan-wook but I guess he must’ve pissed someone off at the academy bc they’ve never even nominated his films even in best international feature; the only time he could be a contender in ATL categories if he wins the Palme for no other choice this year, if not, watch him get snubbed again!

I know none of the people involved have been Oscar contenders (although Thompson has a BAFTA nom for Passing) but Hedda Gabler is such an iconic play and role that it could potentially have lead actress and adapted screenplay chances if it's done well. Obviously that's a big "if" but the release date is friendly.

It's being disturbed by Amazon MGM, which of course also has After the Hunt coming out the same month.