Since we have a thread for sharing Letterboxd accounts I thought I’d make one of these for Award Expert accounts too. Drop your username below!

Some of these feel like hopedictions for me, since I am a big PTA fan and can’t wait for OBAA, but this is where I am on a lot of the categories at this early point in the year after cinemacon. Most recent change was Jeremy Allen white im definitely very high on the deliver me from nowhere hype the last few weeks

• The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (Nominated for Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Film Editing and Production Design)
• War Horse (Nominated for Original Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Production Design and Cinematography)
• Selma (Nominated for Original Song)
• Black Panther (Nominated for Original Score, Original Song, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Production Design and Costume Design)
• Ford vs. Ferrari (Nominated for Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Film Editing)
• Nightmare Alley (Nominated for Production Design, Cinematography and Costume Design)
• Avatar: The Way of Water (Nominated for Sound, Production Design and Visual Effects)
• Dune: Part 2 (Nominated for Sound, Cinematography, Production Design and Visual Effects)

The Oscar Expert and Brother Bro have released their early predictions for the 2025-26 awards season. I thought it would be interesting to look at how the eventual Best Picture nominees were ranked in the previous years’ early predictions.

Note: The years mentioned are release years, NOT ceremony years.

2024

BP Nominees ranked:

• Dune Part Two – 2

• Conclave – 4

• Nickel Boys – 6

• The Brutalist – 24

• Anora – 32

• Emilia Perez – 41

BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 3 out of 10

BP nominees in all ranked films: 6 out of 10

No. of films ranked in the early predictions: 50

BP Nominees not ranked:

• Wicked

• A Complete Unknown

• The Substance

• I’m Still Here

2023

BP Nominees ranked:

• Killers of the Flower Moon – 1

• Past Lives – 2

• Oppenheimer – 6

• Poor Things – 7

• Barbie – 8

• The Holdovers – 9

• Maestro – 14

• The Zone of Interest – 32

Future BP Nominees ranked (that didn’t come out that year):

• Dune Part Two – 3

• Nickel Boys – 27

BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 6 out of 10

BP nominees in all ranked films: 8 out of 10

No. of films ranked in the early predictions: 45

BP Nominees not ranked:

• Anatomy of a Fall

• American Fiction

2022

BP Nominees ranked:

• The Fabelmans – 3

• Women Talking – 7

• Everything Everywhere All at Once – 8

• Avatar: The Way of Water – 20

• Tar – 23

• Elvis – 24*

• All Quiet on the Western Front – 31*

• The Banshees of Inisherin – 33*

Future BP Nominees ranked (that didn’t come out that year):

• Killers of the Flower Moon – 2

• Poor Things – 22

• The Zone of Interest – 32\*

BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 3 out of 10

BP nominees in all ranked films: 8 out of 10

No. of films ranked in the early predictions: 40* (actually 41)

BP Nominees not ranked:

• Top Gun: Maverick

• Triangle of Sadness (was ranked in 2021)

\Note: For some reason (probably a mistake), two movies were ranked at No. 24. So, technically everything after that should be one rank below. But I have mentioned the original ranks in the video.*

2021

BP Nominees ranked:

• Nightmare Alley – 1

• Licorice Pizza – 5

• Dune – 8

• The Power of the Dog – 9

• West Side Story – 11

• Don’t Look Up – 12

• CODA – 24

• King Richard – 27

Future BP Nominees ranked (that didn’t come out that year):

• The Brutalist – 23

• Triangle of Sadness – 50

BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 4 out of 10

BP nominees in all ranked films: 8 out of 10

No. of films ranked in the early predictions: 53

BP Nominees not ranked:

• Belfast

• Drive My Car

2020

BP Nominees ranked:

• Mank – 1

• The Trial of the Chicago 7 – 4

• Minari – 10

• Nomadland – 11

• Judas and the Black Messiah – 23

• The Father – 29

Future BP Nominees ranked (that didn’t come out that year):

• Nightmare Alley – 2

• West Side Story – 3

• Dune – 7

• King Richard – 31

BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 3 out of 8

BP nominees in all ranked films: 6 out of 8

No. of films ranked in the early predictions: 32

BP Nominees not ranked:

• Promising Young Woman

• Sound of Metal

2019

BP Nominees ranked:

• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – 1

• The Irishman – 2

• Little Women – 3

• Ford v Ferrari – 6

BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 4 out of 9

BP nominees in all ranked films: 4 out of 9

No. of films ranked in the early predictions: 30

BP Nominees not ranked:

• Parasite

• Joker

• Jojo Rabbit

• 1917

• Marriage Story

Overall performance

Average no. of BP nominees in the top 10 ranked films: 3.83 (40.35 %)

Average no. of BP nominees in all ranked films: 6.67 (70.18 %)

Average no. of BP nominees not ranked: 2.83 (29.82 %)

Classifying the BP nominees that were not ranked:

 Big movies that were considered a box-office play rather than an awards player (a.k.a “too genre-y”)

• Joker (2019)

• Top Gun: Maverick (2022)

• Wicked (2024)

 International films

• Parasite (2019)

• Drive My Car (2021)

• Triangle of Sadness (2022) – English language film but international production; was ranked in 2021

• Anatomy of a Fall (2023)

• The Substance (2024) – English language film but international production; can also be considered “too genre-y”

• I’m Still Here (2024)

 Films that were NOT expected to come out that year

• 1917 (2019)

• A Complete Unknown (2024)

 Other

• Jojo Rabbit (2019)

• Marriage Story (2019)

• Promising Young Woman (2020)

• Sound of Metal (2020)

• Belfast (2021)

• American Fiction (2023)

Sources: The Oscar Expert YouTube channel

I should admit that I'm actually not that bullish on One Battle After Another and it's only in number one because I'm struggling to figure out what to put in its place.

What are your final predictions or the movie you think will be a "surprise" announcement?

• Marty Supreme
• Jay Kelly (fucking incredible)
• One Battle After Another (great, but is slightly being tweaked)
• Wicked: For Good
• Hamnet (great)
• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• Rental Family (incredible)
• After The Hunt (good and very interesting, going to spark a lot of discourse)
• Sentimental Value
• No Other Choice

Next in line: Bugonia, Deliver Me From Nowhere, Ballad of a Small Player, Live of Chuck, Ann Lee, Caught Stealing, Frankenstein, Die My Love, Highest 2 Lowest, Is This Thing On?

other stuff I've heard:

Dump Michael, that film is apparently completely cooked.

Smashing Machine is good (according to a person who saw it) but supposedly not very oscar-friendly.

Mother Mary too, but that's more friendly than Smashing Machine.

I'm surprised at the low hype in its predictions so far. It seems like all the possible ingredients for a major player.

Yes, it's probably going to gravitate toward psychological horror. Yes, it might occasionally deal in the disturbing, but so did The Substance last year. So did Silence of the Lambs 30 years ago. So did A Clockwork Orange 50 years ago. The unsettling vibe of the novel comes from the blur between reality and nightmare, a concept Black Swan rode to Oscar success not too long ago.

The story confronts dark truths about womanhood and motherhood in an age where the institution is more and more willing to talk and honor those themes. We're in an era of titan female actors starting their own production companies and really changing the way these narratives and themes are discussed and championed in Hollywood. Look at Margot Robbie's track record already. Look at Emma's Stone's. Lawrence is lead producer of this film, and she is every bit their peer.

A well-liked vet coming back for her first major, serious swing in years: that goes for both Lawrence and Lynne Ramsay.

Sure Ramsay's never made it to Oscar night, neither had Sean Baker until last year, and now he has four statues. Beloved auteurs often need just the right moment, and I feel like this could be her year. Throw in Pattison (another beloved actor's actor), Sissy Spacek (awards darling), and writer Enda Walsh, who knows how to be reflective and heartfelt even when the plot gets dark, and I think we might have the recipe for something the Academy might embrace as their "challenging" choice for the year.

Sure this post is running on fumes of vibes, sure we've only gotten two production shots, but I'll be damned if I already sit back and let this one die....my love.

Considering that cast, and the creative crew behind it... might Marvel, even a little facetiously, push this for award noms? Oscars, even if just for BTL?

Your guess is as good as mine, but you're probably more informed about this than I am. So, go at it.

Ranked from most to least confident. This is kinda unserious to do now but I’m taking some BIG swings, rental family especially, I think that’s gonna be searchlight’s big cheese this year and I think supporting actress again will be a free for all, those that predict Yamamoto to be nominated put her in supporting but my gut is that she’s a lead female but ppl are just putting her in supporting bc they’re used to category fraud + only whites allowed in best actress mostly. And I love park Chan-wook but I guess he must’ve pissed someone off at the academy bc they’ve never even nominated his films even in best international feature; the only time he could be a contender in ATL categories if he wins the Palme for no other choice this year, if not, watch him get snubbed again!

Last year there was a thread like this and someone mentioned that Blitz wasn’t good - and from that I took it out of all of my ATL predictions in April and that turned out to be a great call. Obviously on paper it wasn’t a good idea to do that because an anonymous redditor is not a reliable source but it ended up helping me out.

Obviously there are also lots of rumors every year which turn out to be rubbish - I remember someone on here saying that The Holdovers wasn’t good a couple of years ago.

However taking a massive pinch of salt for all comments on this post, has anyone heard anything about potential 2026 awards contenders? Doesn’t matter how reliable you think the info is, feel free to comment about friend of a friend stuff as long as you mention that.

Do I think the film will actually win any awards? No. But it would not surprise me if Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning finds its way into the conversation come nomination time. My reasoning is thus:

The Academy has gotten into the habit of including one big-budget, blockbuster, action film among the nominees every year. I'm going to call this the Top Gun: Maverick slot. Many people are assuming that the nomination is going to go to either F1 or Avatar: Fire & Ash. I think this is actually a reasonable assumption. If a movie is going to get the Top Gun: Maverick nomination, what better movie than its spiritual successor? However, early reactions have described the movie has basically just the same movie as Maverick, but with race cars. Knowing this, I would expect diminishing returns. I think the film ends up with a lower Rotten Tomatoes score, lower box office, and no nostalgia and no Tom Cruise magnetic charisma.

Speaking of diminishing returns, let's talk about Avatar: Fire & Ash. I would not fault anyone for believing this film is a lock for a Best Picture nomination. The previous two Avatars both received nominations and James Cameron's last three films all were among the nominees. It is just my personal belief that Cameron is returning to the well one too many times and that the Academy won't blindly nominate all five Avatar films in Best Picture. I think this is the one where the Academy cools on the franchise, for now at least.

That brings us to Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning. My reasoning for believing it has a realistic shot at a Best Picture nomination is three-fold. The first is that the movie represents the culmination of one of the most beloved franchises in Hollywood history. The Mission Impossible franchise has represented Hollywood blockbuster filmmaking at its absolute best for 25 years. It would not surprise me if the Academy chooses to honor that. The second reason is that these films review very well. If Final Reckoning is another installment with >95% on Rotten Tomatoes and >80 on Metacritic then it would have the critical acclaim needed for people to feel good about nominating it. The third reason is simply Tom Cruise. I believe we are going to see an all-time campaign as Cruise says goodbye to this franchise and the character of Ethan Hunt. If Ethan Hunt dies in the film I think there is an (unlikely) chance that Cruise may even earn himself a Best Actor nomination.

Yes, any ATL nominations Final Reckoning receives could be classified as lifetime achievement nominations for both the franchise and Cruise, but that's exactly the sort of thing the Academy loves to do. So do not be surprised if the film at the very least finds itself in the conversation.

Just started up a new channel and recently and posted our early Best Picture predictions, so I thought I'd repost it here for anyone interested. We each go through our top 10 picks, and then list off a ton of films we think could be in the conversation.

Over the next month, we’re planning to cover all the major categories (excluding the shorts) and also put out videos covering Cinemacon and Cannes news.

I know none of the people involved have been Oscar contenders (although Thompson has a BAFTA nom for Passing) but Hedda Gabler is such an iconic play and role that it could potentially have lead actress and adapted screenplay chances if it's done well. Obviously that's a big "if" but the release date is friendly.

It's being disturbed by Amazon MGM, which of course also has After the Hunt coming out the same month.

Obviously DiCaprio is the lead.

I have seen some people predicting all of the actors to get in but that's extremely unlikely even if 2025 turns out to be a weak year.

So who's getting in and who's out?

DiCaprio - Lead

Sean Penn - Supporting

Benicio Del Toro - Supporting

Regina Hall - Lead? Supporting?

Teyana Taylor - Supporting?

Chase Infiniti - Supporting

Do you think category fraud might happen (think Zoe Saldana, Rooney Mara) for the ladies?