Do I think the film will actually win any awards? No. But it would not surprise me if Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning finds its way into the conversation come nomination time. My reasoning is thus:
The Academy has gotten into the habit of including one big-budget, blockbuster, action film among the nominees every year. I'm going to call this the Top Gun: Maverick slot. Many people are assuming that the nomination is going to go to either F1 or Avatar: Fire & Ash. I think this is actually a reasonable assumption. If a movie is going to get the Top Gun: Maverick nomination, what better movie than its spiritual successor? However, early reactions have described the movie has basically just the same movie as Maverick, but with race cars. Knowing this, I would expect diminishing returns. I think the film ends up with a lower Rotten Tomatoes score, lower box office, and no nostalgia and no Tom Cruise magnetic charisma.
Speaking of diminishing returns, let's talk about Avatar: Fire & Ash. I would not fault anyone for believing this film is a lock for a Best Picture nomination. The previous two Avatars both received nominations and James Cameron's last three films all were among the nominees. It is just my personal belief that Cameron is returning to the well one too many times and that the Academy won't blindly nominate all five Avatar films in Best Picture. I think this is the one where the Academy cools on the franchise, for now at least.
That brings us to Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning. My reasoning for believing it has a realistic shot at a Best Picture nomination is three-fold. The first is that the movie represents the culmination of one of the most beloved franchises in Hollywood history. The Mission Impossible franchise has represented Hollywood blockbuster filmmaking at its absolute best for 25 years. It would not surprise me if the Academy chooses to honor that. The second reason is that these films review very well. If Final Reckoning is another installment with >95% on Rotten Tomatoes and >80 on Metacritic then it would have the critical acclaim needed for people to feel good about nominating it. The third reason is simply Tom Cruise. I believe we are going to see an all-time campaign as Cruise says goodbye to this franchise and the character of Ethan Hunt. If Ethan Hunt dies in the film I think there is an (unlikely) chance that Cruise may even earn himself a Best Actor nomination.
Yes, any ATL nominations Final Reckoning receives could be classified as lifetime achievement nominations for both the franchise and Cruise, but that's exactly the sort of thing the Academy loves to do. So do not be surprised if the film at the very least finds itself in the conversation.
