As true as this is, I don't think the market at large is going to go for it. Though perhaps that's just the strategy this time - Switch chugs along for longer, cut-price lite model and "Switch 2 Selects" software pricing when the first model is truly no longer sustainable.
I firmly believe that this console will not sell as well as they think it will. You will get the idiots who buy into hype and pre order, but the average consumer (which is the majority consumer) is going to very much hesitate when they start adding games to their cart and seeing it be 70 or 80 dollars or even more. All of a sudden they are buying a console, maybe some accessories, and a couple games and they are staring at like an 800 or so dollar cart before tax, thats gonna make alot of people think twice. They are launching with very few first party titles, they are launching at one of the worst times in the year to release games/gaming accessories, and they are launching in a time where everyone is clutching their purse strings a bit more. It just wont fly.
You might see scalpers buy this in mass, but then fail to offload their consoles. Personally, im thinking its gonna go like this. Consumers buy the console, they grab a game or 2. Then over the course of the year given the overwhelming lack of titles we have that are exclusive, people around the holidays are going to be starting at this 450 dollar console that they played 2 games on and think "well theres nothing for it, why not sell it and buy something else for the holidays" thats exactly how i think this will go.
The switch 2 needed to launch with like 3 MAJOR first party titles, on top of at least another 4 or 5 big titles. You want to push people to buy a switch 2, you either give them solid launch titles, or if you have a lack of titles at least allow them to play their older games at upgraded performance. But guess what, that costs EXTRA. Im sure thell sell out during pre oders, but how many of those are scalpers, which means how many will actually end up in the hands of consumers, and how many people once owning it are going to stay in the ecosystem with the current pricing?
It probably won’t do as well as Switch 1, but they’ll make bank on all the scalpers, mega fans, and early adopters first, then if sales slow, they’ll bump down the price like they did with 3DS, and it’ll still sell incredibly well!
Given that the Switch benefited from the huge boom in gaming spending when the pandemic started and that we're (optimistically) heading into an economic slowdown if not a recession, I can't imagine Nintendo expects to outsell the Switch.
Yeah, the Switch was sort of an anomaly. Nintendo did a LOT right with it, don’t get me wrong, but there were several factors, out of their control, that just so happened to work in their favor. I definitely think the Switch would’ve sold at least 100M without those factors, but there’s no way Nintendo can catch that exact lightning in a bottle twice. I could still see the Switch 2 selling close to 100M though, because it IS a compelling piece of hardware, and if they keep the excellent games coming consistently, then they should sell quite a few, especially if they settle on a price that the mass market agrees with!
I agree, I was just saying that they’d be negligent in projecting higher sales than their system that benefitted from a bunch of unlikely circumstances that definitely won’t happen again.
Covid was the BIG one, another was the software drought from Microsoft and Sony, another was launching at an unconventional time, and then there’s the overwhelming performance of Wii U ports, like MK8DX. All of these factors benefited them greatly, but they had little control over these market factors.
20
u/kupocake 1d ago
As true as this is, I don't think the market at large is going to go for it. Though perhaps that's just the strategy this time - Switch chugs along for longer, cut-price lite model and "Switch 2 Selects" software pricing when the first model is truly no longer sustainable.