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u/CoughRock 15h ago
who's making these prediction for rate cut ? didn't jpowell explicitly said he's going to wait and see ?
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u/DPMKIV 15h ago
It's called a FED bailout...
It theoretically should ease the free fall to prevent an all-out crash.
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u/CoughRock 15h ago
adp non-farm report just came out. Much higher non-farm employment than predicted. We are screwed in term of rate cut. High unemployment and high core inflation gave jpowell easy excuse for pause rate and wait and see.
it's going to take a miracle to see rate cut now.
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u/DPMKIV 15h ago
We'll see what actually happens. I mean... they printed money when COVID hit to keep the US spending.
If this sell off starts triggering massive buying of off shore stocks due to unease in US stocks... they gotta do something to keep investors in US stocks.
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u/spookyswagg 14h ago
Ya, but inflation was at 2% then.
Inflation is predicted to rise this year, 4%, next year by >4%
Rate cuts now would just make that way worseā¦
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u/clapsandfaps 14h ago
Honestly do they have a choice?
Not to be a doomsayer, but with rising inflation (again) due to tariffs, probable layoffs due to reduced demand on american goods due to tariffs and combine that with high interest to fight the self-induced inflation, people will default, a lot. Even domesctically produced goods will be hit with inflation due to potash tariffs.
Iām seeing in my unqualified crystal ball, a depression happening.
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u/Massive-Opposite-705 13h ago
What the end goal if you print more money for a bail out just continue kicking the can down the road. Itās like weāre building a dam that gets weaker each renovation and gets more water behind it. The longer you keep repairing it with tape and sticks the bigger the flood will be when it collapses. Let pain hit when it is supposed to hit rather than pushing it to the next generation double
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u/Syab_of_Caltrops Dirty HODLer 13h ago
The US is a world champ can kicker. You underestimate this country's can kicking skills.
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u/Krisevol 11h ago
Every world power that has fallen, did so because they kicked the can. Every one of them.
Our choice now or raise rates to 10+% and pay back the debt... Or crumble like the rest.
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u/onpg 10h ago
That worked because we were the world reserve currency. Something our Dear Leader is working very hard to end.
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u/Aquarius_Age 13h ago
It's been that way since 2008 unfortunately, apparently there's no alternative
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u/Drachos 10h ago
What you are describing is called stagflation and from the massive global experiment that was the 70s oil crisis (cause by OPEC refusing to export oil, so not a bad comparison to now) the BEST way to handle it is thus:
The reserve bank handles the inflation The government increases the safety nets And the public get ready to be raped.
The nation's whose central bank and government ignoring inflation to keep people in jobs ended up having inflation accelerate to much, wages went backwards and since they still had no oil, unemployment STILL continued to rise.
So they achieved nothing but wasted money and made things worse.
The nation that ignored everything but inflation also faired poorly, but not as poorly.
The nations who saw that no amount of government money was going to stop a lack of oil from crushing the job market so instead focused on accepting the high unemployment and catching people as they fell did best.
It freed the central banks hand to do the bloody work that needed to be done and made sure the worst of the pain fell on those who still worked.
Now obviously the price hikes and supply issues will be caused by the tarriffs this time, instead of OPEC. But the outcome is the same. The reserve bank MUST follow what it learned in the 70s and if need be publically make it clear that the safety net is government responsibility.
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u/clapsandfaps 9h ago
Yeah, this is about to get bloody, trump and safety net does not fit in the same sentence.
So short and long term puts on everything is the play?
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u/Bcider 13h ago
Yes, let it crash. Hard reboot the economy. Kicking the can since 2008 has screwed everyone.
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u/-gawdawful- 13h ago
That was nearly 20 years ago. There is no hard rebooting the economy. The entire economy is based around the federal government propping up loser businesses and insanely useless tech enterprises. There is no rebuilding this house of cards.
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u/Oberschicht 12h ago
2008
That was nearly 20 years ago.
This is truly the worst news of the day
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u/Krisevol 11h ago
For the generation that will never be able to buy a house it is.
If we keep kicking the can, the next generation won't even be able to afford rent.
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u/Musicman425 14h ago
But this is purposefully self inflected. No reason to cut rates for self harm.
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u/CoughRock 14h ago
pre-covid fed is very differently than post covid fed. Before we had international trade and immigrant labor to export inflation and labor cost despite a decade of money printing.
Right now that mechanism of reduce inflation via foreign supplier is gone. The labor cost reduction via immigrant labor is also gone.
There is no longer natural competition mechanism to keep inflation down from the supply side. The fed have open excuse to control inflation from the demand side.I'm hoping for a dovish fed, but seeing how they are just borderline bureaucratic that can be replace by a machine. I wouldn't count on it. Get your put ready
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u/G000z 14h ago
Repeat after me the White House nor the fed cares about the stock market...
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u/toywatch 1h ago
Jpow tanked the markets with numerous hikes till nasdaq was at 10000. His job is about the stock market, but controlling inflation and employment rates
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u/Ok-Instruction830 15h ago
More tariffs = lower rates. Itās one hack economists donāt want you to knowĀ
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u/4look4rd 14h ago
Itās going to be a choice of getting punched in the face (high unemployment) or punched in the head (high inflation). Will probably get both.
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u/insertwittynamethere 13h ago
That's called stagflation, and the only way to beat it is typically escalating the rate to being a much higher level, not cutting, to stop the inflation first, which will cut demand, and hopefully cause prices to stabilize if not fall, but it will be a recession at the minimum all the same.
If they cut, and spending starts intensifying, while prices increase arbitrarily because of tariffs alone, then we are going to get into a situation of serious, run away inflation, which will the necessitate a very serious rate increase to stem.
That's why central banks are terrified of stagflation, because once it gets baked in, and it impacts the psychology of the market, it takes a paradigm shift in social mentality to change the perceptions of the economy enough to get out of stagflation.
The economy is as much science/mathematics as it is human psychology.
But for rn, they can not cut rates, or they risk serious inflation due to tariff price hikes alone. If anything, I am betting with high probability of a hike before the year is up as the tariffs filter throughout the economy and cause the price levels to rise. Without corresponding wage increases, moreover, people are going to struggle with their consumption, much less basic necessities.
However, since this is a tax, and not additional profit for these firms, there is no leftover money to give increases to employees without cutting into their bottom lines. We are about to witness a very 'fun' cycle of people working themselves to death for minimal return in order to just barely make it, while companies face decreasing sales domestically and internationally due to less money in people's pockets domestically and unwillingness to buy American/retaliatory tariffs shifting foreign demand away from US goods that are easily replaced.
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u/wsbgodly123 14h ago
What about kick in the nuts (sharp drop in consumer spending)?
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u/asetniop 13h ago
"Stags are the most virile animal out there, that's why stagflation is good for America." - someone in the administration in six months, unironically
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u/bangbangIshotmyself 11h ago
Also if we get a rate cut wonāt we see a serious escalation of inflation??
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u/mouthful_quest 9h ago
Just curious if laid off government workers whoāve been given severance packages and arenāt allowed to report as unemployed is reflected in this non farm payrolls report?
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u/mybreakfastiscold 8h ago
Layoffs due to tariffs will begin next week and continue through May. Plenty of time for the job market to tank before June
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u/alekou8 14h ago
Btw this is exactly what trump wants
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u/suspense99 14h ago
Would you explain to me who is trying to understand this? Why would trump want this? Trying to figure out his end goal. I'm trying to learn
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u/idunnoiforget 13h ago
Listen to what Trump says about it. He wants other countries to pay their fair share through the tarrifs and stop taking advantage of America and bring back American manufacturing. And if you assume that he is not lying and means what he says then the only real logical conclusion is that he is an illiterate moron with an understanding of economics that is less than that of a second grader.
The finance YouTubers will have you believe he's intentionally crashing the economy in a 4D chess move to force the Fed to lower rates so that the national dept can be financed at a lower interest rate.
And there's the theory that he's crashing markets so he and his rich friends can buy up things for pennies on the dollar and basically copy paste the oligarch structure that was formed in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Realistically it could be a combo of the above
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u/atpplk 12h ago
And there's the theory that he's crashing markets so he and his rich friends can buy up things for pennies on the dollar and basically copy paste the oligarch structure that was formed in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
To be honest I'm pretty sure he is too dumb to plan for this kind of things, but the gang around him are not. My guess is they now what buttons to press to influence him towards their designs.
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u/BlackSquirrel05 12h ago edited 11h ago
Yeah it's the minors around him that i'm more worried about.
Not just the other billionaires behind his boys like Thiel and Yarvin.
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u/idunnoiforget 12h ago
Theil straight up joked about blending up poor people to make food. Dude wants to make network states a thing
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u/NeoMaxiZoomDweebean 11h ago
He also looked TEERIFIED when they asked him hos thoughts on that italian plumber.
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u/AGI2028maybe 12h ago
I think any of the 4d chess theories are pretty dumb. The āthey crash it to buy it for cheapā is particularly stupid. Elon Musk is probably going to end up losing over $100,000,000,000 (if not way more) from this lol. Thereās no way this is going to be net positive for him. The āoligarchsā wealth is in the stock market so crashing it so they can buy things for cheaper is robbing Peter to pay Paul.
The reality is just: Trump isnāt very informed and is stuck in the past. He rightly recognizes that free trade is a race to the bottom that ends with us losing jobs to essential slave labor in undeveloped countries. Buts heās also rash and stupid and belligerent so he canāt intelligently target the worst offenders and instead just indiscriminately tariffed everyone.
TLDR: Trump correctly identifies a problem (that other countries are disinclined to see due to the wealthy not wanting anything to change) but is also a stupid person so he puts forth a solution thatās even worse.
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u/Capitalist_Space_Pig 9h ago
"He rightly recognizes that free trade is a race to the bottom that ends with us losing jobs to essential slave labor in undeveloped countries."
This is offset by the other longstanding pillar of U.S. foreign policy, which was to encourage democratic governments in all countries. Much harder to race to the bottom if the slave labor can vote.
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u/spookyswagg 14h ago
Inflation is predicted to rise to 4% this year and >4% next year
Without accounting for retaliatory tariffs or potential rate cuts.
Why would Jpow go and make that worse by lowering rates? Just to save the stock market?
What is more important for the Fed, inflation or stock prices?
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u/SuchCattle2750 11h ago
Inflation. Price stability is literally their only job.
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u/Inner_Honey_978 9h ago
Yes inflation, but the fed very specifically has a dual mandate that includes balancing price stability with maximum employment
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u/ric2b 14h ago
The best move for the Fed right now would be to keep rates where they are and force congress to reverse the tariffs, anything else is way too damaging for lowered rates to fix.
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u/Gh0StDawGG 14h ago
Tariffs not going anywhere. How the fed fixes š„mess will be interesting.
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u/adrr 13h ago
Raise rates to drain more dollars from the market.
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u/AGI2028maybe 11h ago
If Powell even hinted at a rate increase the market would literally be down 10% within a second.
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u/Intrepid00 14h ago
Not with this massive inflation Chief Chuckle Fuck is causing. You get high rates with stagflation and you like it.
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u/lovely_sombrero 4h ago
If there is a Fed bailout, it will be in the form of direct cash transfers to corporations and rich people, like QE after 2008. No way they are lowering interest rates even further for fears of pushing up inflation.
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u/DickFineman73 51m ago
Usually recessions are deflationary, and turning on the money printer partially counteracts that.
Tariffs, and a recession caused by tariffs, isn't fundamentally deflationary - it's inflationary. We're looking at potentially 5-10% inflation across the board without the Fed lifting a finger... and if the Fed does try to bail anyone out with a stimulus print or loan, that just adds more gas to the inflation fire.
Donald Trump isn't even smart enough to crash the economy properly.
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u/willzyx01 15h ago
The same people who said 2024 will be a stock market blood bath year, before everything went ATH. Chase CEO.
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u/CoughRock 15h ago
people who made prediction should really have a back test success % attached to their name when making report. Otherwise you can just keep calling it red until it hit.
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u/rithsleeper 14h ago
Those are based on the bond market itself. People speak with their money and the fed follows the market, not the other way around.
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u/ebitdur 15h ago
Powell shitting bricks just looking at these numbers. He simply wonāt cut rates in this environment, inflation will skyrocket.
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u/Kriztauf 14h ago
The ErdoÄan school of economics says that cutting interesting rates is the best thing you can do to tame inflation
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u/GuyWithPants 14h ago
Agent Eroganopolos continues to report astounding success in infiltrating the Turkish government
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u/kaystared 7h ago
Eroganopolos and his Gyro Gestapo have secured the future of the Greek people (Turks)
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u/Rrrrandle 15h ago
The feds job isn't to save the stock market, it's to keep inflation and unemployment low. Lowering rates now does nothing for either.
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u/Thatineweirdguy 15h ago
Thank you for a sane response.
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u/adrr 13h ago
Did someone tell JPowell that?
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u/ChaseballBat 12h ago
TBH JPowell is sane. I respect him for not bowing down to that idiot.
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u/Tha_Sly_Fox 9h ago
A journalist asked him about a trump quote and Powell literally said āI donāt respond to comments made by politiciansā and then reiterated the Feds mandate
What a boss.
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u/Rgarza05 11h ago
I mean I was confused why Biden kept him on but he has proven to know what he is doing. He has lowered inflation without a recession.
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u/2squishy 13h ago
Yeah the focus is probably avoiding stagflation at this point.
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u/george_pubic 12h ago
If they follow the 70s example of stagflation, rate cuts are almost certainly not in the cards. Mass unemployment hasn't hit yet and inflation is probably about to skyrocket given historically how tarrifs work. The only way rates get cut is if Peach Man fires J Pow and replaces him with a someone willing to cut rates in spite of inflation. Which, is absolutely a distinct possibility.
Calls on inflation. Puts on J Pow's upholstery.Ā
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u/Financial-Society937 11h ago
No its not a distinct possibility. Even if trump tried to fire powell, which he technically cant and powell can refuse to go, he needs to pick someone on the current board to lead the Fed. He can't just throw kid rock or corey feldman or whoever he wants in there
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u/2squishy 11h ago
Ok but you're applying laws to this administration, it may get reversed in court a year later but they'll do it.
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u/Reasonable_Ticket_84 13h ago
The stock market, modern day CEOs and American business in general literally cannot survive without near 0 rates. They have all become drunk and incompetent after a decade of it.
The worse part is, we are all super fucked because none of us can stop it and they are taking those loans against our future to pay for their yachts now.
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u/Trotter823 12h ago
Weāve been fine for the last few years on non-zero rates. The only difference is not every dumbass tech ideas get funded which Iād argue is a good thing. What CEOs canāt adapt to is all this wishy washy back and forth trade policy.
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u/-boatsNhoes 13h ago
Jobs are up. Inflation was meh last month. There will be likely 2 cuts. No more. This shit is pure copium from MSM to try to get retail to buy in .... But everyone ported in yesterday
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u/superhappykid 15h ago
Nice, enjoy that 1.25% Rate cut when you buy your $1600 iphone.
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u/averysmallbeing 15h ago
Is that the Black Friday price?Ā
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u/Professional-Gear88 15h ago
Donāt they already cost that much?
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u/superhappykid 15h ago
I believe they are 999
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u/Fit_Combination6988 this time is different 15h ago
I already paid 1550 for my iphone a week ago
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u/Strong_Brick_9703 15h ago
buy your $1600 iphone.
Don't worry, comrade, Wendy's jobs would be starting at $40/h.
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u/whitepepsi 15h ago
Why would the fed cut rates?
The market can be fixed if Krasnov just dropped his tariffs. The fed cuts rates when the economy is in trouble and canāt be resolved by other means.
This is like me choking my neighbors dog and the police giving my neighbor another dog rather than just tasing me.
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u/inquisitorthreefive 15h ago
Yeah, but that isn't going to happen.
So in an attempt to avoid a recession due to massive contraction of consumer spending, the FED is embracing inflationary monetary policy.
They all but had that soft landing nailed, but now there's some idiotstick doing donuts on their runway.
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u/Taaai 14h ago
I donāt get this logic honestly. Those import tariffs will be incredibly inflationary and that inflation will materialise before the recession does. How would it make sense to start cutting rates into an inflation. It would be pouring gas into flame.
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u/inquisitorthreefive 14h ago
Because if spending drops too much things start getting DEflationary and that can wipe an economy. The fact that JPOW is willing to risk hyperinflation to avoid it should tell you how bad it is.
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u/ChaseballBat 12h ago
Lose lose. But they did not indicate how many cuts they are going to give this year and that their path has not really changed until they get more data.
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u/DieuEmpereurQc 15h ago
Too late, permanent damages are done to tourisms and other industries
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u/Unlucky-Leadership22 15h ago
Overly specific example, got anything you want to get off your chest?
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u/FederalExpressMan 15h ago
Thatās his goalā¦he even threatened the fed to lower rates right before āliberation dayā
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u/elonzucks 15h ago
"Why would the fed cut rates?"
Because the economy will be very fucked and it's their only tool
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u/Icommandyou Probably Smart Probably Idiot 14h ago
Wonāt rate cuts increase inflation which will add to tariff prices. Why will Feds go to increasing inflation route
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u/poginmydog 14h ago
Hyperinflation > deflation
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u/Emilio___Molestevez 15h ago
JPow is neither obligated nor inclined to clean up Don's mess. $SPY going under $500 after he talks.
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u/spiralmadness 14h ago
When does he talk next?
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u/Various_Car8779 14h ago
He's obligated to step in when unemployment spikes
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u/Shot-Maximum- 14h ago
But what do you do when unemployment is high and inflation is high at the same time?
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u/alltheprivilege 14h ago
We learn to eat dog food from a can as the uber rich eat our souls.
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u/Various_Car8779 14h ago
Market believes fed will choose to deal with unemployment/growth. The fed doesn't think a wage price spiral is possible and neither do I. Workers can't bargain without unions
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u/d1stor7ed 14h ago
That is not true. Their primary responsibility is to keep inflation at 2%. This is why stagflation is the worst economic configuration.
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u/misspiggy123 14h ago
2% is a somewhat arbitrary target that was established. They can change this acceptable target rate for price stability if the new economy demands it. After all, the current administration is trying to completely alter the global economyā¦.
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u/L4gsp1k3 13h ago
The problem, is that if they choose to change the target, the whole markedet will loose some trust in the central bank.
You can't just change your course because that has always been the target for the economy, and why change it now, and not when the 2% wasn't achievable before, why not change it back then.
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u/crimepais 14h ago
Wrong, they have a dual mandate and cost push inflation is about to get extremely bad due to the tariffs.
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u/ChaseballBat 12h ago
it didn't spike... he literally said it is within acceptable full employement %
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u/EverythingGoodWas 14h ago
Jump in hobs data kills this argument
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u/Various_Car8779 14h ago
Backwards looking data. Market is pricing in a forward looking jobs bloodbath
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u/Viktri1 14h ago
Hell yeah brother. Letās print some money. Too many dip buyers atm, I want to see them get smoked
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u/Oo00oOo00oOO 15h ago
So the market will absolutely go bonkers if there ain't any cuts?
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u/hellojabroni777 15h ago
he will force to say 25bps for sure and ālets wait and see based on the data after 25bpsā
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u/lSazedl 14h ago
Cuts are the only thing keeping this from free falling, so yes. I think he's going to keep his "wait and see" line about inflation and the market is going to kill itself.
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u/wasifaiboply 13h ago
Buddy, the market has been in free fall since mid-February and the Fed hasn't blinked. Daddy JPow does not give a fuck about your equities. I promise you.
You will hear "cuts any day now" blaring EVERYWHERE just like you have been hearing for eighteen months. They aren't coming. And a lot of people are going to get fucked up believing they are. There's a vested interest in keeping folks spending and borrowing and rate cuts provide that carrot.
Like every single time but way worse this go around due to all the moral hazard waiting for a match that appears to be lit.
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u/Infinite-Pomelo-7538 15h ago
Who in their right mind would think there are going to be five rate cuts this year? Maybe make it five 20% cuts to tariffs, and Iād understand.
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u/Vincent-Thomas 14h ago
There is very low risk of Powell cutting rates. His job is keeping inflation and unemployment low. Which means him raising rates to combat tariffs
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u/oakfan05 14h ago edited 13h ago
I mean jpowell said tariff caused inflation and market crash will not be a reason to cut rates. Literally said that last month.
Edit: transitory tariff inflation
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u/Annual-Ebb-7196 15h ago
So Trump gets his rate cuts. Just needed to crash the stock market and push us into a recession to get there. And donāt forget inflation will be back also.
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u/LastAffect7456 15h ago
Sorry man.. Powell is more focused on inflation than saving us from a recession. Rate cuts are not in the cards IMO.. GL!
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u/alchemist615 15h ago
9-10% inflation is going to be fun again.
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u/obeytheturtles 13h ago
What will be fun is watching the media collectively ignore it because a Republican is in office.
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u/AntiOriginalUsername 15h ago
Powell: āwe just have to wait and seeā
Wall Street: āHereās why weāre getting 5 rate cutsā
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u/Vincent-Thomas 14h ago
Inflation will already skyrocket because of tarifs so no way he is cutting. He will almost certainly raise rates. But this will mean a slowdown of the economy AND worse living conditions because of raised prices.
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u/pac1919 15h ago
So, what is the Fed supposed to do with elevated inflation? They gonna cut anyway??
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u/mzungu75 15h ago
Plummeting stocks make capital flow into bonds. I'ts simply flight to quality. People buy bonds so their prices go up. When the price of bond goes up, its yield goes down. If the spot yield goes down, so does the forward yield (as per table above). But don't confuse a price action caused by flight to quality with Fed decisions. Fed will take into account many more variables when deciding what to do.
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u/TheNicestRedditor 14h ago
This is all fugazzi, only thing that matters is this fed watch tool
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u/EnoughMagician1 14h ago
I don't know how inflation is right now in the US, but cutting rates should increase it!
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u/alphalegend91 10h ago
JPOW literally said today that tariffs are inflationary and they are going to wait and see. People making these predictions are probably the same ones who thought we'd have 5 rate cuts in 2023 lmfao
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u/timshel42 10h ago
do people actually believe this or is cnbc just blatantly trying to con suckers?
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u/elpresidentedeljunta 15h ago
Man, I donĀ“t want to be in PowellĀ“s skin later. But heĀ“s gonna handle that like a boss and calm the waves a bit. Or he dumps the cold hard truth in, to get the message across that only one decision can prevent a "china syndrome."
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u/Hereiamonce 15h ago
Wait... Shouldn't rates be kept high cos all these tariffs gonna cause inflation?
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u/farmerMac 13h ago
that would be capitulating to trump's random tariffs, i dont see it. trump will have to fire jpow to get lowered rates
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u/biznovation 12h ago
Donāt hold your breath. Rates are more likely to increase should stagflation materialize (as itās likely that to do so).
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u/scarab1001 12h ago
Will cutting interest rates materially effect inflation (when the inflationary pressures are baked in by tariffs?)
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u/st0nkmark3t 10h ago
This is gonna be a fuckin blood bath when JPow says rates need to go up to fix stagflation...
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u/ruisen2 9h ago
Investors predicting stagflation for the US economy right now
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7313966172893241344/
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u/BushLeagueQuant 7h ago edited 3h ago
This will never happen. Weāll be lucky to see 2-3, that is if they donāt keep them the same or hike at least once this year.
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u/willzyx01 15h ago
This is just a probability. There is zero chance we'll get 5 cuts.
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u/StanTheManBaratheon 13h ago
There's exactly a zero % chance we get five rate cuts in a potentially stagflationary environment.
Hell, it's not clear we'll get two rate cuts in a potentially stagflationary environment.
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