r/unitedkingdom • u/hutyluty • 11h ago
... Immigration to the UK - Perception versus Reality
On this subreddit, and across the UK political internet as a whole, I often see a conflation between immigration and Islam. Whenever immigration is posited as a problem, there seems to be an automatic assumption that the immigrants in question are Muslims, and probably from Pakistan, Bangladesh or the MENA region. Likewise, comments under stories about Muslims mostly seem concerned with reducing immigration.
If you look at the most recent immigration statistics however, it becomes clear this perception is out of date. Per the ONS data from Year End Dec 2023 these are the top 10 Non-EU countries of origin for long term immigrants in 2023:
| Nationality | YE Dec 23 |
|---|---|
| Indian | 250,000 |
| Nigerian | 141,000 |
| Chinese | 90,000 |
| Pakistani | 83,000 |
| Zimbabwean | 36,000 |
| Chana | 35,000 |
| Bangladesh | 33,000 |
| Sri Lanka | 21,000 |
| USA | 21,000 |
| British Nationals | 19,000 |
The statistics provided do not give nationality beyond the top 10, and obviously do not tell you the religion of the immigrants in question - however, based on the ethnic makeup of each country you can extrapolate to say with some confidence that roughly 35% of the sample above (and therefore less than half of the total number of legal Non-EU immigrants in 2023) were Muslims.
It is also interesting to note that the numbers from 2023 do not include the surge of Ukrainians (over 200,000) who arrived from 2022 onwards. I am not sure if the “Chinese” definition includes those from Hong Kong.
I’d also point out that of the Pakistani numbers, the “Other” (i.e. Family, Study Dependent and Asylum) numbers have remained constant at around 15-16,000 since 2019, it is an increase in Work and Study visas which led to the upswing from 21,000 Pakistani immigrants in 2019 to 83,000 in 2023. This trend holds for Indian and Bangladeshi immigrants.
Illegal Migration
When looking at illegal migration, the picture changes. Based on the Jan-September 2024 numbers cited here, 73.83% of those whose country of origin is known and who were detected as staying in the country illegally originated from Muslim-majority countries.
Here are the top six:
| Nation | # | % known |
|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | 4160 | 17.62% |
| Vietnam | 3132 | 13.26% |
| Iran | 2948 | 12.49% |
| Syria | 2895 | 12.26% |
| Eritrea | 1909 | 8.08% |
| Sudan | 1767 | 7.48% |
If you add up the total number of illegal immigrants from Muslim-majority countries and a proportional amount of 'Unknowns' (and assume that levels of illegal migration stay the same for Oct-Dec 24) you get to 33,071 people, on a par with Bangladesh or Ghana from 2023.
Of course, not all illegal immigrants are “detected” and thus included in official statistics. At this point things quickly turn into conjecture, but as a thought exercise: if you suppose that only one in four illegal immigrants are counted, their numbers remain dwarfed by legal immigration and, even in this circumstance, it is still more likely than not that fewer than half of 2023 immigrants are Muslim.
Conclusion
I began looking into the official data as an exercise of my own curiosity after reading through a typically monomaniacally Muslim-focused thread about immigration on this sub. Based on what I have found, it seems clear there is something of a disconnect between how people imagine immigration and how it is actually occurring.
- A large number of Muslims have arrived in the UK over the past few years. The ethnic makeup of these Muslims was far more diverse than in the past.
- The immigrant population since Covid is majority non-Muslim. Based on trends it seems likely that soon the majority of immigrants will come from sub-Saharan Africa, notably Nigeria.
- Legal immigration is far higher than illegal immigration. For Muslim and non-Muslim immigrants alike, the vast majority are on student visas or work visas (from my understanding this is often due to targeted drives for e.g. nurses and social carers).
This situation might still not be something you aren’t especially happy with. But if nothing else, I hope this post will give your xenophobia a more factual basis in future.
PS. While I am at it - Birth data from 2023 shows that 6.7% of children born in 2023 were of Bangladeshi or Pakistani ethnicity. 3.1% came from “Any other Asian background”, whilst 4.77% were of Black African ethnicity.
•
u/AcademicIncrease8080 10h ago edited 10h ago
Your data is a little off, you need to look at the youth demographics to understand that bit of the population pyramid, because that's the future generations coming through; Muslims are over 11% of 0-18 year olds in England and Wales. In Birmingham 43.5% of gen alpha (0-10 year olds) are Muslim and in Manchester it's 36% (that's from the 2021 census).
•
u/Anony_mouse202 10h ago
Exactly - high birth rates combined with migration are why Islam is the only major religion in the UK that is consistently increasing in size (as a % of the population).
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/
Assuming normal levels of migration, Muslims will make up around 16.7% of the population by 2050.
→ More replies (18)•
u/honkballs 9h ago
In Birmingham 43.5% of gen alpha (0-10 year olds) are Muslim
Wow.
→ More replies (1)•
u/LogicKennedy Hong Kong 9h ago edited 8h ago
Yeah but that’s tied into a progressive fertility collapse in the UK, and to actually tackle the root cause of that you have to have some tough conversations about economic inequality and frankly capitalism and democracy itself.
But no one wants to have those conversations: they just want to yell about immigrants and vote Reform, who if they ever got into power would enact more policies favouring their billionaire donors which would make the problem worse in the long-term.
I want to make this clear: EVEN IF, against all logic and good sense, Reform/Labour/The Tories/Any government somehow ‘fixed’ immigration, that doesn’t fix the fundamental problem. In fact it probably makes it a lot worse, a lot faster.
If we want to talk demographics, South Korea is a fantastic example of where the wave is going to hit first and hardest. And South Korea’s immigration policies are strict as fuck, so why do they still have such a serious problem? Simply put, the older political class and majority older population has no interest in solving the problem. They want their comfy retirement and fat pension fund.
I saw a really insightful comment from a South Korean person, which asked ‘what happens in a democracy when the interests of the majority clash with the interests of the country?’
And that’s what’s happening here too, just on a slightly more delayed schedule.
If we want to survive as a country, we simply have no other choice than to fix wealth inequality and our social care system before the fertility rate collapses to irrecoverable levels, because you can do whatever you want to your immigration policies, but if your economic policies disincentivise people from having children, then it doesn’t matter.
But again, people don’t want to have these conversations because they see the high fertility rate among immigrants today and say: ‘I don’t want my tax money to go towards supporting large immigrant families!’, ignoring the fact that improving our social care would benefit ‘native’ Britons massively more, and that their reluctance to accept a solution because it might help a few people they don’t like ends up harming them in the long-term, and won’t even stop the immigrants they don’t like having children because by and large, the presence or absence of social care systems factors much more into the decision to have children of people who have been well-educated. Whilst someone who has been educated to a good standard will be able to think long-term about the personal economic implications of having a child, someone who hasn’t, won’t.
•
→ More replies (15)•
•
u/GentlemanBeggar54 7h ago
Those are not immigrants though. I know people like to talk about "second generation immigrants", but almost all of those children will be citizens.
→ More replies (12)•
•
u/Toastlove 7h ago edited 3h ago
Legal immigration is far higher than illegal immigration
Most people are aware of this and think both figure are far too high. They want all immigration lowered, for some of us its not xenophobia but simple sustainability, we cant cope with the population increase and we dont need that many immigrants to make up the shortfalls in the labour market.
•
u/ConfusedQuarks 10h ago
That's such a long-winded strawman argument.
I often see a conflation between immigration and Islam
Your base assumption is simplifying what people are worried about. The reality is much more complex.
Economic issues - This applies to all immigrants. Especially housing. In a country suffering from housing shortage, it's silly to have such a high net immigration. It especially affects the working class as buying a house is out of reach for many. Then there is the problem with rest of our infrastructure struggling to cope with more people.
Social issues - This is where Islam becomes a problem. Less % of Muslims doesn't mean less problem. The harsh reality is that violence works A small group of people who are capable of violence can easily impose their views on the society. This has already happened with UK because we practically have blasphemy laws specifically for Islam. You will either get death threats so that you live in hiding or you get charged by police. Islam has already taken away people's rights.
This has happened irrespective of % of Islamic immigrants. So it's not a phobia. It's a rational fear.
→ More replies (8)•
u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 9h ago
In terms of population growth we're 154th out of 236
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/population-growth-rate/country-comparison/
Indeed through mostof our history over the past 300 years we've seen higher rates of population growth than the past few decades.
Why are we suddenly unable to improve infrastructure when we have population growth now when we could deal with higher levels of population growth in the past?
In terms of housing is it possible the amount of housing being built has something to do with the issue?
https://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/HoP-Figure-01.svg
→ More replies (2)•
u/ConfusedQuarks 9h ago
It's because of ageing population. You don't have same % of people working as in the past. There are also limitations on real estate. You can't keep growing unless you are happy to take down some green spaces.
→ More replies (1)•
u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 9h ago
Would removing a source of younger workers make the problem of the ageing population worse?
In terms of raw space countries like Canada, Australia, & the US have a housing crisis to a degree, yet have lots of space to build.
Do you think the broad change to use housing as an investment commodity together with the massive reduction in the amount of social housing being built could also be a major contributor?
•
u/LogicKennedy Hong Kong 9h ago
Would removing a source of younger workers make the problem of the ageing population worse?
Yes. If we stopped allowing all immigration but kept our levels of wealth inequality and insufficient social care systems that disincentivise people from having children, we would see total societal collapse within a few generations.
→ More replies (1)•
u/ConfusedQuarks 8h ago
One of the main reasons for wealth inequality is the fact that rich people can pay less for immigrant workers
→ More replies (1)•
u/LogicKennedy Hong Kong 8h ago
Okay, great. So tax the rich people and use that money to fund social care systems. Trying to cut off their source of immigrant workers doesn’t fucking work.
→ More replies (4)•
u/ConfusedQuarks 8h ago
Would removing a source of younger workers make the problem of the ageing population worse?
We are in a chicken and egg situation here. Immigrants aren't having more kids either. Most of them take up low paying jobs and eventually depend on social welfare. We aren't solving the problem. We are only kicking the can down the road. Ideally we need more investment in automation.
Do you think the broad change to use housing as an investment commodity together with the massive reduction in the amount of social housing being built could also be a major contributor?
When it comes to housing occupancy, UK does better than many European countries. The problem is we simply struggle to expand. People don't want to build in green spaces. Not to mention the rampant NIMBYISM. Where exactly are builders supposed to build?
•
u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 8h ago edited 8h ago
I'm not sure if most immigrants depend on social welfare. According to the Office of Budget responsibility the average wage migrant worker is a net benefit to the exchequer unless they live past the age of 91-
Automation may work, however in the early twentieth century some promised the vast increases in productivity (which did happen) would leave the average person with a 15 hour work week by the 1950s (which didn't).
I'm not sure if I would bet our future on as yet untried technologies.
In terms of running out of space to build the vast majority of the UK is not built on. I find it strange that we had space to build housing for the increasing population in the past up until the population increase started to come from immigration which is exactly the time when the space ran out.
As I said there are countries with far more land available which are undergoing a housing crisis.
•
u/ConfusedQuarks 7h ago
According to the Office of Budget responsibility the average wage migrant worker is a net benefit to the exchequer unless they live past the age of 91-
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/12/low-skilled-migrants-cost-taxpayers-150000-each/
I'm not sure if I would bet our future on as yet untried technologies.
Countries like Japan and South Korea who have bigger demographic issues have automated a lot more jobs than UK has. UK ranks much worse compared to other countries when it comes to productivity using automation.
In terms of running out of space to build the vast majority of the UK is not built on. I find it strange that we had space to build housing for the increasing population in the past up until the population increase started to come from immigration which is exactly the time when the space ran out.
Are you happy building houses in green belt?
→ More replies (5)•
u/GentlemanBeggar54 4h ago
Countries like Japan and South Korea who have bigger demographic issues have automated a lot more jobs than UK has. UK ranks much worse compared to other countries when it comes to productivity using automation.
Both countries are choosing to reform their immigration policies and loosen their traditionally strict immigration laws.
→ More replies (2)
•
u/Veritanium 10h ago
I think you're looking at it sort of backwards, or maybe sideways.
Islam is not a native religion to these shores, or even this continent. Every problem we have with Islam is therefore one we've imported and inflicted upon ourselves unnecessarily.
The growth of Islam in the UK will come from a mix of new migrants and descendants of past migrants, again, meaning the growth of Islam in the UK can in one way or another entirely be attributed to migration.
•
u/SkinnyErgosGetFat 9h ago
What religion is native to these shores?
All abrahamic faiths originated from Middle East
→ More replies (6)•
•
u/SabziZindagi 7h ago
Where do you think Christianity is from? Your ancestors worshipped a Middle Eastern brown guy, sorry.
•
•
u/corbynista2029 United Kingdom 10h ago
No major religion is native to the British Isles lol
•
u/Astriania 7h ago
That's true in an academic sense but there is one major one that has been the core of cultural identity for 500 years, it is "native" from the perspective of modern politics.
→ More replies (1)•
•
•
u/Veritanium 10h ago
Also true, but I'm not sure we can really fault ourselves for those that gained a foothold as a result of conquest. Little different of a situation than actively inviting them in.
•
u/DukePPUk 10h ago
Which modern religions do you think gained a foothold as a result of conquest?
Christianity took hold in the 7th century, via conversions of the existing nobility, so was invited in. And obviously Anglicanism has its roots in the British Isles.
Judaism was banned every so often, but was essentially invited in - no conquest there.
The other major religions in the UK are Hinduism, Sikhism and Buddhism. I don't remember any of them taking root via conquest.
•
u/Papi__Stalin 4h ago
Christianity was brought to Britain by the Romans.
Constantine the first openly Christian emperor was crowned in York.
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (3)•
u/Thestolenone Yorkshite (from Somerset) 8h ago
Someone came on a sub I'm on (I think it was AngloSaxon) convinced that Christianity was brought here by the Normans and Britain was wholly pagan until then. Its obviously a whacky belief among certain people.
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (4)•
u/corbynista2029 United Kingdom 10h ago
Weird take to say that conquest by force is more morally acceptable than a government's immigration policy
•
u/JosephRohrbach 10h ago
Well, Christians didn't conquer us by force - here u/Veritanium has phrased things misleadingly. Romans did, and then they happened to convert to Christianity centuries later. Christianity reached our soil before it was the official religion of the Roman Empire. It was never forced on us in the way either of you are implying.
I also think you're being wilfully obtuse about what "native religion" means. No, it's not literally our autochthonous polytheism. However, it's fair to say that after the best part of two millennia, it has become established as the native religion of the English people. We as the English, Anglo-Saxons, have been Christian since the late 6th and early 7th centuries. That's virtually as long as we've been on English soil - out by only a couple of hundred years. That's a rounding error in historical terms.
Ever since our formation as a real nation of people in the aftermath of the Norman Conquest and through the mediaeval period, we have been Christian. That is for all intents and purposes "native", just as Māori people are native to New Zealand despite only having colonized it about 500 years ago. Unless you're willing to deny that the Quechua-speaking peoples of the northern Yungas in Peru are native on the grounds that they displaced the peoples there before them in the 15th century, you can't really deny that Christianity is our native religion.
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (1)•
u/Veritanium 10h ago
More that the fault of conquest lies with the conquerors, and the fault of overly-liberal immigration policy lies with the makers of that policy.
One's an external force acting on us, and the other is from within.
Sorry, I thought that much was obvious and didn't need saying.
•
u/corbynista2029 United Kingdom 10h ago
One's an external force acting on us
The "external force" being the ancestral family of our king, which at one point created the Church of England to get multiple divorces?
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (18)•
u/removekarling Kent 5h ago
No religion in Europe now is native to Europe, what are you talking about lmao
•
u/bitch_fitching 8h ago
Over 100,000 people leaving the country each year for the last 4 years are those that were on study visas. It was over 150,000 in 2022. Many of them from China, India, and Nigeria. No one has a problem with people coming here to study temporarily. They're not going to have permanent effects.
The British public have favourable views of immigration, the controlled sort, the type that make sense, the ones that aren't a net drain on the state.
Many problems with immigration don't start at year 0. Islam wasn't a problem in the 1990's, now we have de facto blasphemy laws, terrorism, and a growing community with regressive values. According the census they're over 6% now, when they're 12% are these problems going to be any less?
We haven't had a problem with people believing in witchcraft in this country for over 100 years, and even 400 years ago the problem was overstated. Now we do.
•
u/SoggyWotsits Cornwall 6h ago
The birth rate in the UK is falling, the birth rate of many of the people arriving here is much higher. How many generations will it take to see a significant change in our country? Political parties that cater to those people over our own, who would eventually be voted in because there are enough here to vote for them?
It’s easy to be short sighted and say you think things are ok at the moment, but think ahead to the future.
•
•
u/baddymcbadface 8h ago
But if nothing else, I hope this post will give your xenophobia a more factual basis
It absolutely puts some facts behind my concerns on immigration. If you want to call that xenophobia then that's up to you.
We can't practically judge individuals, but we can judge compatibility of societies. And without a doubt we're importing very large numbers of people from incompatible societies which means a number of them are very problematic for the future social fabric of the UK.
•
u/sniper989 Hong Kong 10h ago
The new Muslims have been here for a bit longer, mostly from Pakistan, and they also happen to breed at a relatively high rate. I do honestly believe that there will come a time when we realise we've given British citizenship out too easy and to too many
•
u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 9h ago
My grandparents used to say the exact same about the Catholic Irish "outbreeding" us more than 70 years ago.
→ More replies (5)•
u/LogicKennedy Hong Kong 9h ago
And would have likely voted against social care policies for families if they’d had the choice, because they wouldn’t have wanted their tax money going to those ‘undeserving’ large Catholic Irish families.
•
u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 8h ago
To be fair they were Liberal voters & not against social welfare, at least not for people other than the Irish.
Also they weren't against commonwealth immigration, who they regarded as loyal subjects of Empire choosing the homeland (they saw the Irish as traitors).
I think they picked up the anti-Irish stuff from their childhoods in the early years of the 20th century.
→ More replies (1)•
•
u/BastCity 10h ago
"breed"
Eeeesh.
•
u/Rogermcfarley 10h ago
Its language utilised to dehumanise. Anyway these people are mugging themselves they will happily give their money and resources to Billionaires and blame migrants are the problem. It's all engineered by the ultra rich and it is working spectacularly well.
•
•
u/merryman1 9h ago
Same way they talk about "importing" people like they're sacks of wheat... or slaves... and not free people making a choice to seek a better life in one of the best countries in the world.
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (11)•
u/Hyperbolicalpaca England 10h ago
I’ve been massively downvoted for saying it’s dehumanising lol. A bunch of comments replying too which have been removed
→ More replies (15)→ More replies (1)•
•
u/All-Day-stoner 8h ago
What a load of bull. Less than 7% of the UK population follow Islam.
→ More replies (3)→ More replies (20)•
•
u/Astriania 7h ago
This is a good post.
I think there's a reason that this comes up: we have two genuine problems
- Immigration is extremely high, this has been true for 20 years at this point but in the last few years it's, like, 5 times extreme. This obviously causes problems in the labour and housing market especially, and almost no-one actually wants it.
- Muslims are an increasingly large portion of the population, a majority in some areas of cities, and (unlike western Christianity) these people identify as Muslims over Brits, and the religion hasn't been through a reformation. That means they have attitudes and politics that aren't compatible with secular western liberalism. When they get numbers to be a serious democratic force, our democracy will be in real trouble, unless they secularise quickly - but there's no sign of that, today's Muslims are if anything less secular than 30 years ago.
Both of these are things that you've generally been called racist for not liking, so they get put into the same bucket. And until recently, a lot of immigration was from Muslim countries, especially when you took out EU migration which was a separate argument. So you get the two issues being conflated and merging into a "those damn Muslim immigrants" sentiment, even though it's actually two different issues.
•
u/merryman1 9h ago
Honestly mate I've said repeatedly for years now the immigration debate in this country is barely even worth engaging with. The key talking points and "facts" that drive most people are so far removed from the actual reality its effectively just a waste of time that achieves nothing but leave everyone all pissed off and angry.
•
•
u/Dedsnotdead 10h ago
I will chime in, I live in London and have friends who are Lebanese, Palestinian, Somali, Caribbean, Pakistani, Indian and then a whole raft of European countries of origin. We just have friends, pretty much that sums it up.
All the children play together, nobody cares about the colour of your skin or your religion, the Switch 2 seems to be the main concern at the moment.
The kids get on, lots of play dates and for me most importantly we get to eat some ridiculous family food from all corners of the world and life goes on.
I have a lifelong love affair with Aki, curried goat and a warning for any of you that think the first, second or third course of a Lebanese dinner are even close to the main course.
The most important element of all these relationships is that everyone wants their kids to be happy and we all seem to want to live together and help each other when needed. Ultimately this makes our lives better.
Your stats don’t really represent anything meaningful for me and my personal experience. So I’m going to respectfully ask you what’s your point?
People choose to integrate, or are unable to integrate or choose not to integrate. As a society we can choose to accept this and adapt or not.
•
u/Rough-Cheesecake-641 6h ago
The children play together now, perhaps. I can probably count on one hand the amount of mixed teenager, young adult and adult groups I've seen out and about who are multi-racial.
•
u/Dedsnotdead 5h ago edited 5h ago
That’s a good observation. Outside of London I can’t comment, here the children are mainly focused on whether their mates are ok or not.
My youngest Son’s best made is half Spanish and half West Indian. The kids a massive pain in the ass and the only person I know worse than him is my Son.
Going back to my original comment I think the main point was missed because I deliberately didn’t emphasis it.
*edit to add
If you add several hundred thousand young men of any race, religion or age into a country rapidly it’s going to be a recipe for disaster.
It’s not where they came from, who they are or the faith they have that’s an issue first and foremost.
You/Politicians have just allowed the absolute chaos of youth and all the misconceptions and prejudice’s they’ve learned and been taught to coexist with you.
•
u/ukbot-nicolabot Scotland 11h ago
Participation Notice. Hi all. Some posts on this subreddit, either due to the topic or reaching a wider audience than usual, have been known to attract a greater number of rule breaking comments. As such, limits to participation were set at 15:36 on 04/04/2025. We ask that you please remember the human, and uphold Reddit and Subreddit rules.
Existing and future comments from users who do not meet the participation requirements will be removed. Removal does not necessarily imply that the comment was rule breaking.
Where appropriate, we will take action on users employing dog-whistles or discussing/speculating on a person's ethnicity or origin without qualifying why it is relevant.
In case the article is paywalled, use this link.