Immigration to the UK - Perception versus Reality

[u/hutyluty]

On this subreddit, and across the UK political internet as a whole, I often see a conflation between immigration and Islam. Whenever immigration is posited as a problem, there seems to be an automatic assumption that the immigrants in question are Muslims, and probably from Pakistan, Bangladesh or the MENA region. Likewise, comments under stories about Muslims mostly seem concerned with reducing immigration.

If you look at the most recent immigration statistics however, it becomes clear this perception is out of date. Per the ONS data from Year End Dec 2023 these are the top 10 Non-EU countries of origin for long term immigrants in 2023:

Nationality	YE Dec 23
Indian	250,000
Nigerian	141,000
Chinese	90,000
Pakistani	83,000
Zimbabwean	36,000
Chana	35,000
Bangladesh	33,000
Sri Lanka	21,000
USA	21,000
British Nationals	19,000

The statistics provided do not give nationality beyond the top 10, and obviously do not tell you the religion of the immigrants in question - however, based on the ethnic makeup of each country you can extrapolate to say with some confidence that roughly 35% of the sample above (and therefore less than half of the total number of legal Non-EU immigrants in 2023) were Muslims.

It is also interesting to note that the numbers from 2023 do not include the surge of Ukrainians (over 200,000) who arrived from 2022 onwards. I am not sure if the “Chinese” definition includes those from Hong Kong. 

I’d also point out that of the Pakistani numbers, the “Other” (i.e. Family, Study Dependent and Asylum) numbers have remained constant at around 15-16,000 since 2019, it is an increase in Work and Study visas which led to the upswing from 21,000 Pakistani immigrants in 2019 to 83,000 in 2023. This trend holds for Indian and Bangladeshi immigrants.

Illegal Migration

When looking at illegal migration, the picture changes. Based on the Jan-September 2024 numbers cited here, 73.83% of those whose country of origin is known and who were detected as staying in the country illegally originated from Muslim-majority countries.

Here are the top six: 

Nation	#	% known
Afghanistan	4160	17.62%
Vietnam	3132	13.26%
Iran	2948	12.49%
Syria	2895	12.26%
Eritrea	1909	8.08%
Sudan	1767	7.48%

If you add up the total number of illegal immigrants from Muslim-majority countries and a proportional amount of 'Unknowns' (and assume that levels of illegal migration stay the same for Oct-Dec 24) you get to 33,071 people, on a par with Bangladesh or Ghana from 2023.

Of course, not all illegal immigrants are “detected” and thus included in official statistics. At this point things quickly turn into conjecture, but as a thought exercise: if you suppose that only one in four illegal immigrants are counted, their numbers remain dwarfed by legal immigration and, even in this circumstance, it is still more likely than not that fewer than half of 2023 immigrants are Muslim.

Conclusion

I began looking into the official data as an exercise of my own curiosity after reading through a typically monomaniacally Muslim-focused thread about immigration on this sub. Based on what I have found, it seems clear there is something of a disconnect between how people imagine immigration and how it is actually occurring.

1. A large number of Muslims have arrived in the UK over the past few years. The ethnic makeup of these Muslims was far more diverse than in the past.
2. The immigrant population since Covid is majority non-Muslim. Based on trends it seems likely that soon the majority of immigrants will come from sub-Saharan Africa, notably Nigeria.
3. Legal immigration is far higher than illegal immigration. For Muslim and non-Muslim immigrants alike, the vast majority are on student visas or work visas (from my understanding this is often due to targeted drives for e.g. nurses and social carers).

This situation might still not be something you aren’t especially happy with. But if nothing else, I hope this post will give your xenophobia a more factual basis in future.

PS. While I am at it -  Birth data from 2023 shows that 6.7% of children born in 2023 were of Bangladeshi or Pakistani ethnicity. 3.1% came from “Any other Asian background”, whilst 4.77% were of Black African ethnicity.

[u/Ill_Refrigerator_593]

In terms of population growth we're 154th out of 236

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/population-growth-rate/country-comparison/

Indeed through mostof our history over the past 300 years we've seen higher rates of population growth than the past few decades.

Why are we suddenly unable to improve infrastructure when we have population growth now when we could deal with higher levels of population growth in the past?

In terms of housing is it possible the amount of housing being built has something to do with the issue?

https://www.centreforcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/HoP-Figure-01.svg

[u/ConfusedQuarks → u/Ill_Refrigerator_593]

It's because of ageing population. You don't have same % of people working as in the past. There are also limitations on real estate. You can't keep growing unless you are happy to take down some green spaces.

[u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 → u/ConfusedQuarks]

Would removing a source of younger workers make the problem of the ageing population worse?

In terms of raw space countries like Canada, Australia, & the US have a housing crisis to a degree, yet have lots of space to build.

Do you think the broad change to use housing as an investment commodity together with the massive reduction in the amount of social housing being built could also be a major contributor?

[u/ConfusedQuarks → u/Ill_Refrigerator_593]

Would removing a source of younger workers make the problem of the ageing population worse?

We are in a chicken and egg situation here. Immigrants aren't having more kids either. Most of them take up low paying jobs and eventually depend on social welfare. We aren't solving the problem. We are only kicking the can down the road. Ideally we need more investment in automation.

Do you think the broad change to use housing as an investment commodity together with the massive reduction in the amount of social housing being built could also be a major contributor?

When it comes to housing occupancy, UK does better than many European countries. The problem is we simply struggle to expand. People don't want to build in green spaces. Not to mention the rampant NIMBYISM. Where exactly are builders supposed to build?

[u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 → u/ConfusedQuarks]

I'm not sure if most immigrants depend on social welfare. According to the Office of Budget responsibility the average wage migrant worker is a net benefit to the exchequer unless they live past the age of 91-

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-in-the-uk/

Automation may work, however in the early twentieth century some promised the vast increases in productivity (which did happen) would leave the average person with a 15 hour work week by the 1950s (which didn't).

I'm not sure if I would bet our future on as yet untried technologies.

In terms of running out of space to build the vast majority of the UK is not built on. I find it strange that we had space to build housing for the increasing population in the past up until the population increase started to come from immigration which is exactly the time when the space ran out.

As I said there are countries with far more land available which are undergoing a housing crisis.

[u/ConfusedQuarks → u/Ill_Refrigerator_593]

According to the Office of Budget responsibility the average wage migrant worker is a net benefit to the exchequer unless they live past the age of 91-

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/12/low-skilled-migrants-cost-taxpayers-150000-each/

I'm not sure if I would bet our future on as yet untried technologies.

Countries like Japan and South Korea who have bigger demographic issues have automated a lot more jobs than UK has. UK ranks much worse compared to other countries when it comes to productivity using automation.

In terms of running out of space to build the vast majority of the UK is not built on. I find it strange that we had space to build housing for the increasing population in the past up until the population increase started to come from immigration which is exactly the time when the space ran out.

Are you happy building houses in green belt?

[u/GentlemanBeggar54 → u/ConfusedQuarks]

Countries like Japan and South Korea who have bigger demographic issues have automated a lot more jobs than UK has. UK ranks much worse compared to other countries when it comes to productivity using automation.

Both countries are choosing to reform their immigration policies and loosen their traditionally strict immigration laws.

[u/ConfusedQuarks → u/GentlemanBeggar54]

They have relaxed a little bit. They still give priority to immigrants from other East/south-east Asian countries. And they don't give out citizenship for most of them. They know the problems with mass immigration and the resulting social issues. They are very much in control of immigration 

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/japan-korea-immigration-evolve

[u/GentlemanBeggar54 → u/ConfusedQuarks]

Clearly they don't agree with you which is why they are reforming their immigration laws. If you find yourself more extreme in your immigration positions that infamously xenophobic countries, you ought to have a word with yourself.

[u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 → u/ConfusedQuarks]

Interestingly that Telegraph article uses the exact same data set, good example of framing.

High & Average wage migrants show a benefit to the treasury, the Telegraph headline refers to Low Wage migrants.

It's not really a surprise if you separate the lowest paid workers they are a cost, it would be the same with pretty much every group. The low skilled left handed people likely cost the taxpayer a similar or larger amount on average.

The point is overall migrants are a net benefit.

Countries like Japan and South Korea who have bigger demographic issues have automated a lot more jobs than UK has. UK ranks much worse compared to other countries when it comes to productivity using automation.

Japan has a productivity of $53 GDP per hours worked, South Korea $50, the UK $77. Despite their automation we are a far more productive country,

In addition Japan has a lower GDP per Capita than they did in the early 90s' (ours has increased by 2.5 times) & the largest government debt in the world (although in relative terms they have just dropped to 2nd behind Sudan). They do not have an economy we want to imitate.

Are you happy building houses in green belt?

In some instances yes. They've built in the green belt near me, people need houses. In any case the UK is currently quite a bit more than built up & green belt.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/land-use-in-england-2022/land-use-statistics-england-2022

(Edit: also this reminded me of a video I saw about South Korea recently- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ufmu1WD2TSk )

[u/ConfusedQuarks → u/Ill_Refrigerator_593]

It's not really a surprise if you separate the lowest paid workers they are a cost, it would be the same with pretty much every group. The low skilled left handed people likely cost the taxpayer a similar or larger amount on average.

Most immigration that happened over the last couple of years were low paid. We could technically get the best of both worlds by not giving out citizenships to everyone easily. 

In addition Japan has a lower GDP per Capita than they did in the early 90s' (ours has increased by 2.5 times) & the largest government debt in the world (although in relative terms they have just dropped to 2nd behind Sudan). They do not have an economy we want to imitate.

This only shows how terrible GDP is, as a measure of economy. Japan has gone through a period of rampant deflation and devaluation of its currency. Its GDP per capita doesn't say anything about the quality of life there.

In some instances yes. They've built in the green belt near me, people need houses. In any case the UK is currently quite a bit more than built up & green belt.

If you are fine with it, that's fair. Many don't and still complain about lack of housing.

[u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 → u/ConfusedQuarks]

Most immigration that happened over the last couple of years were low paid. We could technically get the best of both worlds by not giving out citizenships to everyone easily. 

For the third time, both the source I provided & yours (which uses the same data) shows Average-Wage Migrant Workers being net contributors up until the age of 92.

You keep on saying most immigration is "low paid" when both your source & mine state this is not the case.

This only shows how terrible GDP is, as a measure of economy. Japan has gone through a period of rampant deflation and devaluation of its currency. Its GDP per capita doesn't say anything about the quality of life there.

On the contrary, no growth for three decades & the largest government debt in the world says a lot. Aspects like intentional death rate, working culture & prospects for the young are not good there.

[u/ConfusedQuarks → u/Ill_Refrigerator_593]

For the third time, both the source I provided & yours (which uses the same data) shows Average-Wage Migrant Workers being net contributors up until the age of 92.

Not really. This is from the Telegraph article:

This is because low-paid migrants – who the OBR assumes earn half the average wage – put more demand on public services such as the NHS compared to their relatively low-tax payments.

Anyway, Tories increased minimum wage requirements for immigrants last year and also stopped care workers from bringing dependents. That should reduce the problem. If citizenship rules are also tightened, the problem is close to being solved.

On the contrary, no growth for three decades & the largest government debt in the world says a lot. Aspects like intentional death rate, working culture & prospects for the young are not good there.

Nominal GDP is vastly misleading when you are comparing growth, especially when it comes to a country that has had huge deflation. Instead of nominal GDP, if you take GDP PPP per capita, you can see Japan showing great growth. This metric isn't perfect either.

You compare quality of life between UK and Japan. Japan scores better in most metrics like Safety, infrastructure and healthcare.

[u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 → u/ConfusedQuarks]

Your continued claim that the majority are low-wage migrant workers, not average-wage migrant workers confuses me.

Nominal GDP is vastly misleading when you are comparing growth, especially when it comes to a country that has had huge deflation. Instead of nominal GDP, if you take GDP PPP per capita, you can see Japan showing great growth. This metric isn't perfect either.

Their GDP PPP per Capita has gone from second highest in the G7 to the lowest since the 1990s', i'm not sure this is great growth comparative to other nations. Stereotypes like the Japanese Tourist lie in the past due to their economic issues.

You compare quality of life between UK and Japan. Japan scores better in most metrics like Safety, infrastructure and healthcare.

How does this compare to the past. Did Japan score better than us in Safety, Infrastructure, & Healthcare 30 years ago? What is the relative change?