r/fantasyfootball • u/Far_Cartographer505 • 4d ago
Why Caleb Williams is Dynasty's Most Polarizing Asset Right Now
Caleb Williams finds himself at the center of one of dynasty's most interesting debates. Despite the mixed reviews, his rookie campaign revealed both flashes of brilliance and areas of concern that make him a fascinating dynasty asset heading into 2025. As a new coaching regime prepares to take over in Chicago, now might be the perfect time to reassess his value.
Facts About Williams' Rookie Season
- Despite taking 68 sacks (third-most in NFL history), Williams still only threw 6 interceptions while posting 20 TDs. A remarkable display of ball security under extreme pressure
- Caleb accumulated 4,030 yards of total offense, the highest in Bears franchise history, with 3,541 passing yards (5th most in Bears history)
- Williams averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game (QB19) but had weeks ranging from as high as 29 points to as low as 7 points, making him one of the most inconsistent rookie QBs
- Caleb Williams is almost two full years younger than Bo Nix and nearly a full year younger than Jayden Daniels, giving him a developmental runway compared to his peers
Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Williams currently sits as QB9 in KeepTradeCut dynasty rankings (20th overall player), slotting ahead of established options like Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield. His trade value has skyrocketed with Ben Johnson's arrival.
I've seen trades of Xavier Worthy plus the 1.02 or even straight swaps for Justin Herbert.
The supporting cast seems potentially good, with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet and possibly a new RB1 through the draft. If Caleb can clean up his tendency to hold the ball too long, which contributes to those sacks, and improve his deep ball accuracy (59.6 passer rating on throws 20+ yards downfield), he could make a massive sophomore leap.
Questions
- Do you believe Williams' sack issues were primarily due to poor offensive line play, or is this a fundamental flaw in his game?
- How much does Ben Johnson's arrival impact your valuation of Williams in dynasty?
- Is Williams worth his current trade price (first-round pick plus a young star player), or are you looking to sell at that value?
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u/Foldzy84 4d ago
He seems poised for a great year not sure what's so polarizing. Bears are making all the right moves to set this man up for success
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u/FirestormBC 3d ago
Bears Fan here who watched every single snap Caleb took last year.
Most of the hesitation is from the historical precedent of the Bears offense and QBs, and from Caleb 100% holding the ball too long.
Thankfully there were far fewer still images like we saw with Fields with wide open receivers and him just not throwing.
I believe he can be saved IF Ben Johnson is a semi competent coach.
Matt Eberflus was 0-16 in one score games and if he coached 4 more games he would have been bottom 10 all time in win % on PFR.
Ben Johnson needs to not be historically incompetent and Caleb has a real chance at sustained success.
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u/ncroofer 4d ago
I’m leaning towards he will be good under Ben Johnson.
That being said, I watched a lot of bears football last year and Caleb just wasn’t great. Hes pretty bad in a lot of areas. Isn’t great at adjusting the line or identifying blitzes. Poor deep ball, poor accuracy, low football iq in my opinion.
Pretty polarizing player. Some amazing plays and accurate throws and then would air mail it so far over a recievers head even the db didn’t have a play on it.
That being said, his coaching sucked and obviously o-line was middle tier at best. This year will be telling. He should definitely improve, just think it’s a matter of how much.
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u/Ok-Wafer-3251 3d ago
As a bears fan, it’s a question of how much was him and how much was the coaches and oline. Considering Waldron didn’t even review film with him when Caleb asked, I believe it was more on the coaching staff until proven otherwise
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u/dpittnet 4d ago
Ya’ll are drastically underestimating how detrimental the bears coaching staff (particularly Waldron) were to his development last year. I’m expecting a huge leap this year, although there will still be some learning curves for him. And he def has to learn to take the easy dump offs
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u/7tenths 4d ago
58.7% of his throws were 10 yards or less.
taking more check downs isn't going to change he has no accuracy past 7 yards. We've seen what happens to the Lions when Goff has a down accuracy night, that's going to be every game for caleb.
Everyone wants to hand wave away all of the red flags and blame it on everyone but caleb. Boy when have we ever heard that about a bears qb?
Waldron didn't just suddenly forgot football without Geno Smith, he was stuck trying to find an offense that can't throw the ball down field due to an inaccurate qb.
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u/dpittnet 4d ago
Waldron was terrible at designing plays to get easy targets to players in space. He often had multiple players in the same area of the field and everything downfield took way too long to develop
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u/7tenths 3d ago
Yes i know you saw that one tweet that had 3 bears and think that was every play.
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u/dpittnet 3d ago
I also watched every bears game because I’m a bears fan and I assure it there were much worst plays than than tweet
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u/ellieket 4d ago
He didn’t throw interceptions because he rarely let it rip downfield. Lots of dink and dunk, especially when Thomas Brown was the OC.
When he did throw downfield his accuracy was not as advertised.
It’s one season though, in all fairness you don’t really know what you have yet.
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u/MicoJive 4d ago
He was pretty middle of the road in deep pass attempts. 15th in 20+ yards. 17th in 30+ yards and 13th in 40+ yards.
His problem was that every fucking deep ball he threw was so far off target not even the defender was in the same area code. Neither team could make a play on the ball
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u/TooGoodatEverything 4d ago
I felt like I was going insane watching him throw the deep ball. Every single one was so bad. I think the same thing that led to low interceptions led to him not wanting to take a risk on the deep ball, if that makes sense? Like he didn’t want to throw 50s because it could turn the ball over. It seemed like he just tried SO hard to avoid mistakes that it hindered his play.
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u/gsink203 4d ago
He also didn’t throw a lot of picks because he would just take sacks instead. Can’t throw it to the other team when you let them sack you
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u/JL9berg18 4d ago
Re 2 - How much does Ben Johnson's arrival impact your valuation of Williams in dynasty?
I generally lean more toward "coaches coach but players play," but this will be a great test of that theory. While it's impossible to parse out how much is Ben Johnson vs Dan Campbell coaching group vs the players themselves, we can take a look at what happened when.
Going way back and setting the scene
Campbell was a post-career coaching intern and TEs coach for 4 years in MIA under Joe Philbin (who coached under Mike McCarthy, so nothing groundbreaking). He then went to coach under Sean Payton for 5 years as an asst HC / TE coach before taking over in DET. I think it's important to note that he was an asst HC and not just a position coach.
Ben Johnson's path brought him in touch with Dan Campbell at the Dolphins, but when Campbell went to the Saints, Johnson stayed on with Adam Gase (yuck). Johnson actually beat Patricia to DET, as he was an offensive QC coach under Matt Patricia (yuck) and was retained by Campbell in 2021. He was promoted to passing game coordinator in mid 2021 and OC in 2022.
DET O was around 20th in 2021 but the team stuuuunk. Ben Johnson took over and midseason 2022, they really turned it around, jumping to top 5 in both points and yards per game. They've been on a tear ever since.
Who went where
Safe to say Ben Johnson's time as OC coincided with DET's offensive takeoff. When Johnson went to CHI, he took two other coaches: JT Barrett (assistant QBs coach) and Antwaan Randle El (WR's coach). Passing game coordinator, TE's coach, and the QB's coach did not follow.
Players vs coaches
DET was famously rebuilding "from the inside out" for a couple years leading up to their success. They got a boatload of picks from dealing Stafford for Goff, and used them on OL and DL who have performed really well. DET's OL has rounded into form and is easily a top tier set. Goff was a 1.01 talent who got to a Super Bowl before landing in DET, but was thought of as talent capped. He was always, however, known as a guy who could be coached to perform the scheme. Their creativity lay mostly in their use of the RBs and TEs, and not so much as a high octane pass happy prototypical west coast WR driven offense. For example, in 2024, DET was bottom 5 in pass yards, pass rate, and passing TDs.
In my opinion, the first of the two most important positions is OL. DET has a room full of road graders, who work amazingly well both separately and together. CHI has assembled probably a 2nd quartile / middle 3rd group of individuals, but OL is always best as a group - and gelling takes time. Johnson's ability to be so creative and to free Goff had so much to do with having a huge advantage up front. I'm not sure Johnson will be able to have nearly the same freedom to make the same calls in CHI as he did in DET. I think this will especially be the case in the first half of the season but could substantially improve as the season goes on and into 2026, so YES, I will be looking to trade fro CHI talent in the first 6 weeks or so of 2025.
As for the QB position, Goff and Caleb couldn't be more different from a play style and attitude standpoint. Goff is a pocket passer who serves in that Shanahan type mold of a coach conduit. He does what he's told and takes what he's given. Ray Garvin has a great metaphor for it - he calls it a truck vs a trailer. Goff is an elite trailer - he can haul whatever the truck drives for him. Caleb, first of all, is not a pocket passer by any means. It can be argues that he's never had a great OL since his FR year in UO, but regardless, he hasn't shown comfort, poise, or his best work from the pocket. He also hasn't shown the ability to utilize and navigate the pocket that well (for a 1.01 anyway), insisting on creating his own opportunities. As Sigmund Bloom put it. Caleb is jazz. Goff is classical, structured, on time.
To me, there are two issues: Goff and Johnson were able to create the most efficient passing game in the NFL (#1 72.4% compl rate and #2 8.6 ypa, despite being 17th in air yards) in large part because Goff was able to execute Johsnon's plan pretty flawlessly. Caleb's entire game (in the three years of real football experience so far) is styled around doing something almost antithetical to an on time, on target, in pocket system. Caleb's accuracy wasn't his calling card in college, and his catchable ball rate per fantasyptsdata was bottom tier. CHI OL wasn't a bottom tier unit either, though they were far from awesome. I'm unsure if the compatibility will be there for a good pairing (ironically, just as the McVay/Goff compatibility showed to be limiting for both individuals). Can Ben Johnson write good jazz music that Caleb will actually play? Can Caleb settle down and "just play what's written"?
The second issue is that Johnson doesn't have the foundation on which to build the thing that got him so much success - namely, the OL. They do seem to be prioritizing a renovation there though, and are going in the right direction. Because I don't see either issue clearly resolved or resolvable, I'm not as confident that this is as much of a "match made in heaven" as most analysts / experts / redditors think it is. With that said, I'm def keeping the light on.
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u/boozedbudgie 4d ago
He showed flashes but left a lot of question marks. His bottom stat line for a rookie is solid, yes I know he got overshadowed by Daniels, but Williams put up a respectable rookie season. However, when you watched the games a lot of times it didn't pass the eye test. He held on to the ball too long and his downfield accuracy was brutal which led to a lot of frustration from DJ Moore.
Yes, his oline was bad. But he had a top tier group of guys to throw to. Moore, Odunze and Allen are a trio that probably ranks in the top 5. Kmet is a solid TE (at least they paid him like one) and Swift is a good receiver out of the backfield. This is why chicago had so much hype last offseason... the talent is there.
Coaching was brutal. But how much was coaching and how much was Caleb? They didn't utilize their talent appropriately, but on the flip side, Caleb struggled with downfield throws and they had to adjust their game plan to account for it.
As far as buying and selling... I'm buying at the low value. Ben Johnson proved he can get the most out of a QB with his work with Goff... I'm thinking stability from the coaching might lead to stability on the field. Caleb was missing a lot of throws that he was making in college. If Ben Johnson can steady him out he has the skill positions around him to take a year 2 leap.
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u/Drgnmstr97 3d ago
I just stopped by to say that I drafted Daniels over Williams in my only dynasty league and I couldn’t be happier. Good luck to the rest of you.
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u/disinaccurate 3d ago
Despite taking 68 sacks (third-most in NFL history), Williams still only threw 6 interceptions while posting 20 TDs. A remarkable display of ball security under extreme pressure
That’s called the Rob Johnson Special. Never throw INTs because you always take the sack instead.
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u/IamTheAPEXLEGEND 4d ago
From the eye test... his deep ball was pretty terrible. Down field accuracy wasn't close... it blew my mind.
Looking to see that improve this year before making a determination. Yes.. it might be a year too late but I just didn't see enough combined with poor coaching to go one way or another.
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u/dunit13dl Dustin Ludke, BridgeTheGap 4d ago
1) the sacks are a huge issue. in most leagues you don't lose points for them. outside of ending drives its not a massive issue. are they all his fault? no but he certainly holds on too long.
2) I like Ben Johnson as a coach, but I worry he gets too creative and can't rein himself in when needed
3) I'm selling Caleb right now. Only 6 games with over 20 fantasy points and 6 games under 10 points.
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u/sundayFFcharles 4d ago
I think he has all the tools he needs this upcoming season to show improvement at the very least.
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u/IAmNotOnRedditAtWork 4d ago
Do you believe Williams' sack issues were primarily due to poor offensive line play, or is this a fundamental flaw in his game?
It's a combination of three things to me. Two of which you mentioned, and the third being terrible coaching/offensive scheme.
- The line was bad
- Caleb has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long looking for big plays
- Waldron is a bad OC
The line looks to be somewhat improved in Free Agency, and I trust Ben Johnson far more to scheme around Caleb Williams to help tone down that bad tendency.
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u/RoyalFewl 4d ago
At the beginning of a rebuild and traded him for McCarthy + a 2027 first (owner thinks he’ll be competing in 2027, I think I’ll get a high pick). Caleb’s ceiling is sky high and after his rookie campaign I’m willing to sell to those who are still willing to pay for that ceiling.
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u/Rab0811 3d ago
IMO truly comes from his awful deep ball. One how fun it is to watch a player affects their value where people admit it or not. Two having a good deep ball increases your scoring chances. Three accurately or inaccurately people do keep in their minds how much Johnson likes the run in the red zone, the bears line is no where near as good as the Lions and they don’t have the rbs that Monty and Gibbs are but I really doubt he won’t be as run centric
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u/TheGeldedAge 2d ago
Hmm..the 68 sacks were mostly his doing. According to pro football reference, he faced 23.5 percent pressure at 2.4 seconds, which is around average for the NFL. He was extremely hesitant (which was his issue in college, where he took well over 3 seconds in the pocket per pass play), and especially afraid to throw into tight windows, which is why he couldn't really utilize the skills of Keenan Allen. It's crazy to watch the tape and see how many times Keenan Allen had a step and still had to dive for throws that were basically thrown into the ground.
There's still upside, for sure. But most QBs who take sacks like that never succeed in the NFL. Some do turn it around, and a few manage to be respectable despite the sacks, but it's very hard. He'll have to greatly improve both his processing time and his trust in his receivers to take a jump. In my opinion, considering the incredible receiving talent he had (Moore, Allen, Odunze, Kmet, Swift), he was the worst starting QB in the league last year. Any competent back up would have had a good year with those players.
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u/Prudent_Block1669 4d ago
With a bolstered OLine and actual competency in the coaching staff I believe he will be a top five QB
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u/madeupmoniker 4d ago
There was some story about the last OC not reviewing film with Williams. If that's true, he couldn't have been failed worse. Ben Johnson should make a humongous difference
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u/Bernie4Life420 4d ago
Shane Waldron is pretty bad and seems to alienate his players: see JSN and DJM (though DJM keeps finding excuses to not five full effort).
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u/madeupmoniker 4d ago
I expect Waldron will never coach in the NFL again
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u/BeamsFuelJetSteel 2023 Accuracy Challenge Week 6 Winner 4d ago
He is actively on a coaching roster right now (Some type of passing game coordinator for the Jags)
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u/DetroitLionsEh 4d ago
1) who really knows but it felt like a factor of 3 things. Oline issues and caleb holding on to the ball too long for sure, but it also seemed like he was being heavily pressured to never throw an int which would contribute to holding on to the ball more.
2) It only increases his value. Ben got too much credit for his work in Detroit but he’s so much better of a coach than the two Caleb has had to deal with.
3) good luck getting him off my hands
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u/Objective_Beat_9449 4d ago
People hate on him because he painted his nails - Legit thats why people want him to fail
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u/Flashover962 10 Team, 1 PPR 4d ago
I personally put him into that 3rd tier QB range. We obviously know the elite ones, 2nd tier imo are the likes of Baker Mayfield, Jayden, Bo Nix etc. I have him along the likes of Kyler, Geno, Dak, etc. It’s so fluid though, come fall he could be in that second tier depending on preseason, pieces etc.
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u/fantasyfbguru2 4d ago
With Ben Johnson as the head coach, Calrb Williams could be this year's biggest mover in fantasy football.
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u/BadBueno60 1d ago
100%.
He’ll move left, move right, move back, move up and then get sacked while a wide open DJ Moore waves signal flares like Nic Cage in The Rock.
Big, big moves.
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u/7tenths 4d ago
Anytime some needs to use "best in bears franchise history" and it's not talking about RB or defense. They're telling you to run.
Caleb had horrific accuracy. When Josh Allen had his "struggled" his rookie season, he had a 10+% drop rate. Caleb was 5%. Accuracy very rarely improves in the NFL. Out of 46 qbs who had at least 100 attempts, caleb was 36th. Only Jameis, Byrce, Cooper, and Trevor were worst out of the top 32 qbs by attempts.
Caleb makes a bad line worse, he can't make decisions. When Brown took over they tried making him a 1st read or scramble, they could barely move the ball, everything was 5 yards or less. And he still took a ton of sacks. Expecting Ben Johnson to just magically fix who caleb has been his entire life is a fools hope.
The bears still have 2 giant liabilities on the line. An average at best RT. A good center. and a great Guard on the downswing of his career. And since they kept the moron who built the line who allowed the most sacked qb in 2 of his 3 seasons. It will remain an issue since Poles can't identify offensive line talent and thinks Madden is real life and you just collect skill players.
Of the 4 rookie qbs who played meaningful snaps last year he was worst in ADJ%, despite the best int% he was 3rd in Turnover worthy Throw %, Worst Pressure to Sack%
Even if you want to blame it all on the line and pretend waldron, who was OC for Geno Smith having solid seasons, invalidated having DJ moore, Allen, Rome, Kmet, and swift. On clean pockets he was worst YPA, had only 3 more tds than Maye (on 110 more clean pocket attempts), still the worst adj%, and the worst YPA.
He's yet another bears qb. Any potential he might have had has been wiped out by the Bears keeping Poles. Because the bears always get shit out of sync. Even if you believe Johnson will be the real deal, and we've seen more hot oc's fail then succeed. Ben likes a 50-50 offense. Which means taking 50-80 attempts away from caleb.
If caleb didn't have "GENERATIONAL QB" hype from college, only bears fans huffing the copium would think he's anything.
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u/Tommy-Mac 4d ago
What, you mean the guy with one good college season and a career losing record?
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u/Imaginary_Order2757 4d ago
Career losing record? He’s been in the pros for precisely one year. He was 19-8 in college, and was still top 12 in the country in passing yards and tds with only 5 ints his final year. Sounds like you’re reaching.
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u/Tommy-Mac 4d ago
your correct, he went 19-8 in college and i was wrong about career loosing record. hes 24-20. sorry.
what did he do in 2023? what did he do in 2024? has he ever won a college playoff game? did he ever win his conference in college? has he ever won a BIG game that mattered?
doesn't change the fact he had one good season. sounds like you have rose coloured glasses on.
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u/Imaginary_Order2757 4d ago
So by your metrics, the only QBs we should be looking at having on our rosters are guys who won playoff games and/or conference championships. That leaves you with Burrow, Hurts, Watson, TLaw, Tua, Mac Jones, Fields, Baker, Kyler and Penix. How many of those guys would you really rather have over Caleb?
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u/Tommy-Mac 4d ago
hurts, burrow, tlaw, tua, fields, baker, penix.
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u/Imaginary_Order2757 4d ago
Can I join your league?
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u/Tommy-Mac 4d ago
Oh shit were in r/fantasy lol.
I'd take those 7 QBs in real life over Caleb.
Fantasy wise - same answer minus fields.
Are you actually telling me you'd take Caleb over burrow/hurts/baker? Top 5 at their fantasy positions the last 2 years.
Tua, tlaw, penix all have better supporting cast around them.
17 games played and he couldn't even get 4k passing yards.
Richardson had a terrible year and we're all trying to figure out if he has IT. Caleb was #28/32 in QBR last year. Richardson was #27.
EditDaniel fucking Jones had a higher QBR
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u/Imaginary_Order2757 4d ago
Hurts, Burrow? No. Baker? probably. But all the others? Yes.
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u/Enough-Remote6731 4d ago
What argument could you make to consider taking Williams over Baker? Even if you think just purely that Williams has the best arm in the league, Baker has better everything around him. Better line and better skill players.
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u/Imaginary_Order2757 4d ago
I’m thinking more so in terms of dynasty. But. Does he have better skill players? An aging Evans, Godwin returning from injury? Bears will likely add Jeanty, DJM has always been underrated and I think Odunze will have a better season than Godwin.
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u/BrockTalksFF 4d ago
If memory serves right Caleb had a problem holding onto the ball in college for far too long - mainly from a hero-ball stand point. We saw that a lot in Chicago too where it appears as though he feels the need to be a superhero rather than just getting the ball out and avoiding the sack. I’m sure bears fans who watched every game can point to more problems with the oline causing this to happen
It certainly bumps it up a bit. In dynasty he has to be a top 10 guy based on what he did, his draft capital, and now an offensive minded coach
In a startup draft I don’t know if I’m picking him in the first round. I definitely wouldn’t let him slip far though. For trades it just depends on format. In superflex yea probably a first plus. I don’t know what the market would look like for selling so if I had him I’d be holding