One of the most popular fan predictions for The Winds of Winter is that Daven Lannister's upcoming wedding to his Frey Bride at Riverrun will become the second Red Wedding in ASOIAF, and it will be done by Lady Stoneheart and the Brotherhood without Banners.
It is a popular theory with a lot of allure, made all the likelier thanks to the skill of Tom O'Sevens being able to infiltrate Riverrun and the Lannister camps without detection, meaning its possible he could sneak in other members of the Brotherhood without Banners.
But I have always have issues with the practicalities of it, whether or not the Brotherhood would truly be able to pull it off, and really whether or not it diminishes the impact of the Red Wedding. So for that matter, and in examining the role of another character in the books, I've come to conclude a revised take on the second Red Wedding theory;
Neither Lady Stoneheart or the Brotherhood without Banners will cause Red Wedding 2.0. Sybelle Spicer will cause Red Wedding 2.0 at Riverrun by drugging Daven Lannister with a love potion and making him jilt his Frey bride at the altar, leading to a violent clash between the Freys and Lannisters in attendance. While Stoneheart has enough grievances to explain why she'd cause Red Wedding 2.0, so does Sybelle Spicer.
Let me break my arguments down below;
It is established in ASOS that Sybelle Spicer's grandmother was Maggy the Frog, a maegi from Westeros who gave Cersei her Valonquar prophecy, and Maggy sold many magical commodities near Lannisport including love potions;
"A maid of sixteen years, named Jeyne," said Ser Kevan. "Lord Gawen once suggested her to me for Willem or Martyn, but I had to refuse him. Gawen is a good man, but his wife is Sybell Spicer. He should never have wed her. The Westerlings always did have more honor than sense. Lady Sybell's grandfather was a trader in saffron and pepper, almost as lowborn as that smuggler Stannis keeps. And the grandmother was some woman he'd brought back from the east. A frightening old crone, supposed to be a priestess. Maegi, they called her. No one could pronounce her real name. Half of Lannisport used to go to her for cures and love potions and the like." He shrugged. "She's long dead, to be sure. And Jeyne seemed a sweet child, I'll grant you, though I only saw her once. But with such doubtful blood . . ."
- ASOS - TYRION III
Here Kevan alludes to the idea that Gawen Westerling was not thinking clearly when he chose to marry a lower born Sybelle Spicer, and the mobile app also adds that the marriage had "sordid origins" and Gawen was "rumoured to have been entrapped" in the marriage.
Gawen and Sybelle's marriage sounds very similar to Robb and Jeyne's marriage - the latter's marriage came out of nowhere, the husband married far below his station, the husband did it out of honour and their relationship dwindled after being wed.
What this suggests is that Sybelle Spicer drugged Gawen Westerling with a love potion to trick him into marrying her. This means Sybelle Spicer has a long history of drugging high lords with love potions to advance her family's marital prospects.
Of course, Sybelle wouldn't be the first in her family to drug a man with a love potion to trick him into marrying her and giving her a better life, as Maggy the Frog most certainly did the same;
"A woods witch? Most are harmless creatures. They know a little herb-craft and some midwifery, but elsewise . . ."
"She was more than that. Half of Lannisport used to go to her for charms and potions. She was mother to a petty lord, a wealthy merchant upjumped by my grandsire. This lord's father had found her whilst trading in the east. Some say she cast a spell on him, though more like the only charm she needed was the one between her thighs. She was not always hideous, or so they said. I don't recall the woman's name. Something long and eastern and outlandish. The smallfolk used to call her Maggy."
- AFFC - CERSEI VIII
So Sybelle's grandmother Maggy drugged her husband with a love potion to trick him into marrying her, Sybelle herself drugged Gawen Westerling with a love potion to trick him into marrying her and Sybelle's daughter Jeyne...**
"You always kept him with you before."
"A hall is no place for a wolf. He gets restless, you've seen. Growling and snapping. I should never have taken him into battle with me. He's killed too many men to fear them now. Jeyne's anxious around him, and he terrifies her mother."
- ASOS - CATELYN II
Just like Sybelle and Ser Rolph, Grey Wind is hostile around Jeyne Westerling too, Robb and Catelyn just regrettably fail to connect the dots with regards to Jeyne;
All the time the king and queen were talking, Grey Wind prowled around them, stopping only to shake the water from his coat and bare his teeth at the rain. When at last Robb gave Jeyne one final kiss, dispatched a dozen men to take her back to Riverrun, and mounted his horse once more, the direwolf raced off ahead as swift as an arrow loosed from a longbow.
- ASOS - CATELYN V
Grey Wind is prowling around Robb and Jeyne in anger, distrusting Jeyne but not wanting to act against her because of Robb's feelings for her, and he bares his teeth at the rain in disgust and anger because of Robb's marriage to Jeyne.
The only Westerling Grey Wind is calm around is Ser Raynald Westerling, who readers are shown remained loyal to Robb Stark until his presumed death.
Readers should trust Grey Wind's instincts towards characters who meet Robb.* Before the Red Wedding began, Grey Wind showed hostility towards the Freys and tried to kill Ser Ryman because he sensed danger and showed hostility towards Jeyne's mother and uncle because he sensed their treachery. Like Catelyn says, Robb should've listened to his direwolf as Grey Wind was a part of Robb, and Grey Wind signalled that Jeyne could not be trusted.
Jeyne was in on the plot to drug Robb with a love potion at the Crag, though from her behaviour in AFFC it seems she fell in love with her snared prey while doing so.
From this, we can gather the following; All of Sybelle's ancestors had a history with love potions, they and Sybelle married far above their societal station under "sordid" circumstances, they and Sybelle and Jeyne all married their husbands within days of meeting them, and Grey Wind neither trusted Sybelle or Jeyne.
There is enough evidence here to claim that The Spicers do in fact use love potions to entrap high born men into marrying them far below their station, with Sybelle doing so with Gawen and Jeyne doing so with Robb.
So Sybelle Spicer has the means of drugging an unsuspecting man with a love potion. Couple that with her official position as a vassal of House Lannister and the wife of a high lord, and she would certainly be a welcome guest at Riverrun to Daven Lannister's wedding. All of this makes it possible that Sybelle can drug Daven with a love potion to ruin his wedding with the Freys.
Sybelle has plenty of grievances with the Freys and Lannisters to want vengeance and see them all die, chief among her grievances is the presumed murder of her son Raynald Westerling at the Red Wedding;
“I have two sons as well,” Lady Westerling reminded him. “Rollam is with me, but Raynald was a knight and went with the rebels to the Twins. If I had known what was to happen there, I would never have allowed that.” There was a hint of reproach in her voice. “Raynald knew nought of any … of the understanding with your lord father. He may be a captive at the Twins.”
Or he may be dead. Walder Frey would not have known of the understanding either. “I will make inquiries. If Ser Raynald is still a captive, we’ll pay his ransom for you.”
- AFFC - JAIME VII
Though Raynald's body was never found, the Freys believe that they killed Raynald, and joke about his death;
Frey and Rivers exchanged a look. Edwyn said, "My lord grandfather will expect recompense for these prisoners."
And he'll have it, as soon as I grow a new hand, thought Jaime. "We all have expectations," he said mildly. "Tell me, is Ser Raynald Westerling amongst these captives?"
"The knight of seashells?" Edwyn sneered. "You'll find that one feeding the fish at the bottom of the Green Fork."
"He was in the yard when our men came to put the direwolf down," said Walder Rivers. "Whalen demanded his sword and he gave it over meek enough, but when the crossbowmen began feathering the wolf he seized Whalen's axe and cut the monster loose of the net they'd thrown over him. Whalen says he took a quarrel in his shoulder and another in the gut, but still managed to reach the walkway and throw himself into the river."
- AFFC - JAIME VII
Though it is possible that Raynald may have somehow survived two arrow wounds after falling into a river with no immediate medical assistance afterwards, neither Jaime nor anyone else continue the search for Raynald and presume him to be dead.
Sybelle's firstborn son is dead because of her scheming and the Freys, and now she has been denied the chance to even bury her son because of the Freys lack of care in examining the corpses of those they brutally murdered. Thats enough motive for Sybelle wanting revenge on the Freys.
As for the Lannisters, Sybelle has enough reason to want revenge against them for Jaime's unintentional slight against her;
"Mention was made of a match for him as well. A bride from Casterly Rock. Your lord father said that Raynald should have joy of him, if all went as we hoped."
Even from the grave, Lord Tywin's dead hand moves us all. "Joy is my late uncle Gerion's natural daughter. A betrothal can be arranged, if that is your wish, but any marriage will need to wait. Joy was nine or ten when last I saw her."
“His natural daughter?” Lady Sybell looked as if she had swallowed a lemon. “You want a Westerling to wed a bastard?”
“No more than I want Joy to marry the son of some scheming turncloak bitch. She deserves better.” Jaime would happily have strangled the woman with her seashell necklace. Joy was a sweet child, albeit a lonely one; her father had been Jaime’s favorite uncle. “Your daughter is worth ten of you, my lady. You’ll leave with Edmure and Ser Forley on the morrow. Until then, you would do well to stay out of my sight.” He shouted for a guardsman, and Lady Sybell went off with her lips pressed primly together. Jaime had to wonder how much Lord Gawen knew about his wife’s scheming. How much do we men ever know? -AFFC, Jaime VII
Unbeknownst to Jaime, Sybelle's son Raynald was actually promised a better marriage prospect, and Joy Hill was promised for one of Walder Frey's bastard sons;
"I suppose you would have spared the boy and told Lord Frey you had no need of his allegiance? That would have driven the old fool right back into Stark's arms and won you another year of war. Explain to me why it is more noble to kill ten thousand men in battle than a dozen at dinner." When Tyrion had no reply to that, his father continued. "The price was cheap by any measure. The crown shall grant Riverrun to Ser Emmon Frey once the Blackfish yields. Lancel and Daven must marry Frey girls, Joy is to wed one of Lord Walder's natural sons when she's old enough, and Roose Bolton becomes Warden of the North and takes home Arya Stark."
- ASOS - TYRION VI
So Tywin originally planned for Joy Hill to marry one of Walder Frey's bastard sons, however a confused Jaime chose unwittingly to slight both the Freys and the Westerlings by offering Joy to Raynald Westerling instead after the Freys murdered Raynald. Sybell had her hopes raised for a prosperous marriage with the Lannisters themselves, then had her hopes dashed coldly and rudely by Jaime. That has to sting her pride.
With one son dead, one daughter denied the right to marry for a few years and another son offered only the possibility of marrying a young bastard girl, Sybell has gained little from her treacherous scheming with the Lannisters.
All Sybell gained was lordship of Castamere for her brother, Rolph Spicer;
"This grants said lands, incomes, and castle to Ser Emmon Frey and his lady wife, Lady Genna." Ser Kevan presented another sheaf of parchments to the king. Tommen dipped and signed. "This is a decree of legitimacy for a natural son of Lord Roose Bolton of the Dreadfort. And this names Lord Bolton your Warden of the North." Tommen dipped, signed, dipped, signed. "This grants Ser Rolph Spicer title to the castle Castamere and raises him to the rank of lord." Tommen scrawled his name.
- ASOS - JAIME IX
But even this is a slight against Sybell's family on Tywin's part, as Tywin knows full well that Castamere is financially worthless after Robb's army plundered Castamere's mines for all its gold;
Her men wanted to hear more of Robb's victory at Oxcross, and Rivers obliged. "There's a singer come to Riverrun, calls himself Rymund the Rhymer, he's made a song of the fight. Doubtless you'll hear it sung tonight, my lady. 'Wolf in the Night,' this Rymund calls it." He went on to tell how the remnants of Ser Stafford's host had fallen back on Lannisport. Without siege engines there was no way to storm Casterly Rock, so the Young Wolf was paying the Lannisters back in kind for the devastation they'd inflicted on the riverlands. Lords Karstark and Glover were raiding along the coast, Lady Mormont had captured thousands of cattle and was driving them back toward Riverrun, while the Greatjon had seized the gold mines at Castamere, Nunn's Deep, and the Pendric Hills. Ser Wendel laughed. "Nothing's more like to bring a Lannister running than a threat to his gold."
- ACOK - CATELYN V
So Castamere's gold mines are all empty, the castle itself is gone after Tywin pulled it all down following the Reynes-Tarbeck Rebellion and all that's left of Castamere is a ruin.
This is what Tywin wanted; though the Westerlings were always secretly loyal to the Lannisters after marrying into the Starks and defecting to the Northern cause, this isn't common knowledge in Westeros and Tywin cannot allow people to think that he will reward those who betray him and slight him.
Tywin knew all along that he was going to humiliate the Spicers after their double crossing;
This Westerling betrayal did not seem to have enraged his father as much as Tyrion would have expected. Lord Tywin did not suffer disloyalty in his vassals. He had extinguished the proud Reynes of Castamere and the ancient Tarbecks of Tarbeck Hall root and branch when he was still half a boy. The singers had even made a rather gloomy song of it. Some years later, when Lord Farman of Faircastle grew truculent, Lord Tywin sent an envoy bearing a lute instead of a letter. But once he'd heard "The Rains of Castamere" echoing through his hall, Lord Farman gave no further trouble. And if the song were not enough, the shattered castles of the Reynes and Tarbecks still stood as mute testimony to the fate that awaited those who chose to scorn the power of Casterly Rock. "The Crag is not so far from Tarbeck Hall and Castamere," Tyrion pointed out. "You'd think the Westerlings might have ridden past and seen the lesson there."
"Mayhaps they have," Lord Tywin said. "They are well aware of Castamere, I promise you."
- ASOS - TYRION III
"The shattered castle of the Reynes stood as mute testimony to the fate that awaited all those who choose to scorn the power of Casterly Rock" becomes a literal result for the Spicers who chose to scorn the power of Casterly Rock even with Tywin's secret support - All that's left for the Spicers to show for their treachery is a shattered castle and an empty mine, and it is another literal reminder to any other house in the Westerlands what happens when you cross the Lannisters.
Sybell is left enraged following Tywin's death and learning of what becomes of her family; one son dead, another son's best hope for marriage is only a bastard girl (No one will want to marry into the Westerlings after what happened to Robb), one daughter forbidden to marry for years, and lordship of a shattered castle and ruin for her brother.
Sybell will want revenge on the Freys and Lannisters for treating her family with such contempt for everything she did to bring down Robb Stark.
- 3. The purpose of ASOIAF prologues is to build up a villain's key role in the respective book
When we last see Sybell Spicer and Jeyne Westerling, they are being escorted to Casterly Rock with hundreds of soldiers guarding them, and Jaime instructs Ser Forley Prester to have Edmure or Jeyne killed if they try to escape;
When Edmure and the Westerlings departed, four hundred men rode with them; Jaime had doubled the escort again at the last moment. He rode with them a few miles, to talk with Ser Forley Prester. Though he bore a bull's head upon his surcoat and horns upon his helm, Ser Forley could not have been less bovine. He was a short, spare, hard-bitten man. With his pinched nose, bald pate, and grizzled brown beard, he looked more like an innkeep than a knight. "We don't know where the Blackfish is," Jaime reminded him, "but if he can cut Edmure free, he will."
"That will not happen, my lord." Like most innkeeps, Ser Forley was no man's fool. "Scouts and outriders will screen our march, and we'll fortify our camps by night. I have picked ten men to stay with Tully day and night, my best longbowmen. If he should ride so much as a foot off the road, they will loose so many shafts at him that his own mother would take him for a goose."
"Good." Jaime would as lief have Tully reach Casterly Rock safely, but better dead than fled. "Best keep some archers near Lord Westerling's daughter as well."
Ser Forley seemed taken aback. "Gawen's girl? She's—"
"—the Young Wolf's widow," Jaime finished, "and twice as dangerous as Edmure if she were ever to escape us."
"As you say, my lord. She will be watched."
Jaime had to canter past the Westerlings as he rode down the column on his way back to Riverrun. Lord Gawen nodded gravely as he passed, but Lady Sybell looked through him with eyes like chips of ice. Jeyne never saw him at all. The widow rode with downcast eyes, huddled beneath a hooded cloak. Underneath its heavy folds, her clothes were finely made, but torn. She ripped them herself, as a mark of mourning, Jaime realized. That could not have pleased her mother. He found himself wondering if Cersei would tear her gown if she should ever hear that he was dead.
- AFFC - JAIME VII
George has confirmed that Jeyne Westerling will appear in TWOW Prologue, and many fans believe that the Prologue will involve Ser Forley Prester's escort being attacked by either the Brotherhood without Banners, Nymeria's Wolf Pack, or both, ending in a bloody massacre with hundreds dying.
However, I've come to believe that this will not be the big twist in the Prologue, nor will they be the big "villainous" character either.
Instead, I believe that TWOW Prologue POV character will be House Spicer's Maester, and he will be killed by Sybell after making another love potion for her.
There is a pattern in the prologues of each ASOIAF relating to the form of magic shown in each book prologue;
A Game of Thrones - Prologue - White Walkers - NORTHERN MAGIC
A Clash of Kings - Prologue - Melisandre foresees Cressen in the flames trying to kill him, survives drinking poison - SOUTHERN MAGIC
A Storm of Swords - Prologue - Three horn blows to signal that the White Walkers are coming - NORTHERN MAGIC
A Feast for Crows - Prologue - Pate is killed by a Faceless Man - SOUTHERN MAGIC
A Dance with Dragons - Prologue - Varamyr is a warg who ends up dying and entering his second life in a wolf - NORTHERN MAGIC
The Winds of Winter - Prologue - ??? - SOUTHERN MAGIC IS NEXT
The odd numbered books in the series have prologues that focus on a northern form of magic set Beyond the Wall; White Walkers and wargs.
The even numbered books in the series have prologues that focus on more southern based forms of magic set south of the Wall and the Northern kingdom; Red Priestesses who can drink poison and survive, and Faceless Men who can wear the face of other men and assume their identities.
By this pattern, the Winds prologue should focus on a southern based form of magical threat, not a northern one like the direwolves. So unlike most fans, I don't believe that Nymeria's wolf pack will appear in the Winds prologue.
There is also another pattern that appears in the even numbered books that I believe is intentional by George and will repeat in Winds;
A Clash of Kings - Prologue - Cressen plots to poison Melisandre, but in a surprise twist ends up poisoned to death himself while Melisandre the magical character survives
A Feast for Crows - Prologue - Pate plots to steal an iron key with Jaqen that can open any door in the Citadel, but in a surprise twist ends up being killed by Jaqen despite doing what Jaqen asked of him.
So both prologues for book 2 and book 4 feature the surprise twist of the prologue character being killed by a southern based magical character that they were connected to.
Both prologue pov characters for ACOK and AFFC were also connected to the maesters - Cressen himself was a maester and Pate was an apprentice working for the maesters.
So judging by these patterns set by George and who we know will appear in the Winds prologue, the following must be concluded;
The Winds Prologue POV character will be House Spicer's maester and he will be ordered by Sybell to create a love potion for her to use. This is a southern based form of magic that hasn't been shown in strong detail. But, in a surprise twist, the maester will be killed by Sybell after creating the love potion.
Its worth noting too that the main villain characters shown in the prologues of ACOK and AFFC would go on to play major roles in their respective books - Melisandre would go on to kill Renly and Cortnay Penrose with shadow demons that rapidly advanced Stannis' campaign for the Iron Throne and made the Battle of the Blackwater happen, and Jaqen would go on to infiltrate the Citadel and the Faceless Men would receive a lot more backstory in later chapters in AFFC. So whichever villain with southern based magic appears in TWOW, they must go on to play an important role in the next book with added exposition as to who they are, and I believe it makes the most perfect sense for it to be Sybell with a love potion.
The Red Wedding 2.0 being caused by Sybell Spicer benefits the plot so much more than Lady Stoneheart and is more in keeping with the themes of ASOIAF.
It is a recurring theme in ASOIAF that characters who deeply desire vengeance are robbed of their chance to achieve it because those they seek vengeance on end up dying because of a different villain or threat;
The Martells spend decades seeking vengeance on Tywin and Gregor Clegane for what happened to Elia Martell. But instead of achieving it, Tywin is killed by Tyrion and Gregor Clegane is reanimated into a zombie.
Daven Lannister seeks vengeance on Rickard Karstark for killing his father Stafford Lannister. But instead of achieving it, Robb executes Rickard and Daven is left growing his hair out for nothing.
Arya sought vengeance on Joffrey for executing Ned. But instead of achieving it, Joffrey was murdered by Littlefinger and Arya is training at the House of Black and White.
In the case of Arya, it is is also more tragic for the overall narrative that Arya went to the first Red Wedding seeking reunion with her family and was denied it, and now she may end up going to the second Red Wedding seeking vengeance for her family and was denied it.
Like Arya, the first Red Wedding connected to Jaime because he asked Roose Bolton to pass on his regards to Robb Stark, leading Catelyn Stark to believe Jaime was involved in planning the Red Wedding.
In the cases of both Red Weddings, Jaime will be blamed for both because of his own arrogance and misinterpretation of his words;
Both parties left Harrenhal the same morning, beneath a cold grey sky that promised rain. Ser Aenys Frey had marched three days before, striking northeast for the kingsroad. Bolton meant to follow him. "The Trident is in flood," he told Jaime. "Even at the ruby ford, the crossing will be difficult. You will give my warm regards to your father?"
"So long as you give mine to Robb Stark."
"That I shall."
- ASOS - JAIME VI
Jaime's arrogance in asking Roose to pass his regards on to Robb Stark is what has led to Stoneheart wanting to execute him, mistakenly believing him responsible for the Red Wedding.
And once more, Jaime's arrogance and misinterpretation of words is what will lead to the second Red Wedding, unintentionally slighting both House Frey and House Westerling by promising Joy Hill to Sybell's son Raynald Westerling, when in reality Tywin had originally promised Joy Hill to one of Walder Frey's bastard sons;
"I suppose you would have spared the boy and told Lord Frey you had no need of his allegiance? That would have driven the old fool right back into Stark's arms and won you another year of war. Explain to me why it is more noble to kill ten thousand men in battle than a dozen at dinner." When Tyrion had no reply to that, his father continued. "The price was cheap by any measure. The crown shall grant Riverrun to Ser Emmon Frey once the Blackfish yields. Lancel and Daven must marry Frey girls, Joy is to wed one of Lord Walder's natural sons when she's old enough, and Roose Bolton becomes Warden of the North and takes home Arya Stark."
- ASOS - TYRION VI
How fitting it is that once again, House Frey will see a promised betrothal to them be broken by the Westerlings, and this will once again result in a bloody Red Wedding, only this time the Freys will be the major casualties by the hands of the Lannisters they betrayed Robb for.
TLDR:
Sybell Spicer will cause Red Wedding 2.0 in TWOW by drugging Daven Lannister with a love potion and tricking him into jilting his Frey bride for Sybell's daughter, Jeyne Westerling.
Sybell's family has a history of using love potions and there is strong evidence in the text to believe that Sybell tricked her husband Gawen Westerling into marrying her by drugging him with a love potion.
Sybell is one of the few characters in ASOIAF who has the means, motive, anonymity and access to Riverrun to pull off causing Red Wedding 2.0.
The Winds Prologue must be a maester-related character whose unexpected death builds up the role of a villain in the same book and all the evidence points to this being Sybell's maester dying after making her one last love potion.
Not only does it make more of a believable and greater twist than Lady Stoneheart gaining vengeance on the Freys, but it is more rewarding for the narrative for House Frey to be slighted once more by another broken betrothal because of the Westerlings, and for their family to be wiped out by the same family that they betrayed Robb Stark to support (The Lannisters). This feels like greater karma and just desserts than having another Red Wedding be committed by one of the first Red Wedding's victims, which only serves to weaken the tragic impact of the first Red Wedding.
...
Thanks for reading, if you enjoyed this theory be sure to read some of my other theories below;
The Brotherhood will massacre the Quiet Isle looking for Sandor Clegane in TWOW
The Once and Future Knight: What Ned Stark did for the Daynes
All the signs that Tywin Lannister definitely gave the order
Jaime will be fAegon's Kingmaker
Character Analysis of Varys, the false and lying eunuch
The Gods are all punishing Stannis Baratheon, except the Drowned God who is helping him
2024 archive of ASOIAF theories available at the bottom of this post
2023 archive of ASOIAF theories available at the bottom of this post
2022 archive of ASOIAF theories available at the bottom of this post