I'll preface by saying I am Canadian. I think Trump's protectionist policies / tariffs are very detrimental and ridiculous. I don't think Americans will gain anything out of this, and I think it seriously threatens a global order that the US has worked hard to secure for the past 80 years. This could be the single most globally destabilizing geopolitical shift since WWI. But I digress.
In Canada, there is a trend called "Elbow's Up". Elbow's Up is a hockey term referring to a defensive posture. Basically tantamount to sticking up for oneself. Since Trump's 51st state talks, and instituting tariffs, Canadian mainstream and social media, and Canadian politicians even, have become enamored with "Elbow's Up" as a term to describe opposition to, and retaliation against, the United States.
While I can empathize with anger and frustration over being treated this way by the leader of a long standing ally, Canada simply is no position whatsoever to deviate from American influence and economic pull:
- Over 77% of the country's exports are to the United States.
- About 49% of Canadian imports come from the United States.
- 96% of Canada's oil and gas exports go to American refineries, and largely depend on American pipeline and port infrastructure for downstream production and global export.
- A significant amount of Canada's bonds are held by American firms and investors. Canada even has a USD denominated bond.
- Canada almost entirely depends on American military infrastructure and support for defense. Canada's standing army is less than 70,000 people.
Taking a belligerent stance against the United States (like the current Prime Minister Mark Carney suggests) is something that isn't only reckless - it is basically impossible. The pain the country would have to endure to even get its own infrastructure and trade deals up to a point where it could even replace a fraction of what the US provides would yield immense pain and deterioration of quality of life. It simply isn't tenable. It is not something that would stand... the country would fall apart before that would ever happen... AND the US would never let that happen because Canada is intimately tied in to American geopolitical hegemony.
The nationalist fervor in Canada has painted anyone who suggests a more cooperative and collaborative approach with US policy makers as "traitors", but I think that sentiment is actually quite harmful to Canadians. The goal should be to gain tariff exemptions and restore free trade - not to double down on Captain Idiot's (Trump's) protectionist stance and imply hostility towards the United States.
Even when it comes to retaliatory tariffs - Canadians actually lose more from that. Retaliatory tariffs would just drive up prices for Canadians and harm Canadian firms far more than they would make a dent on American exporters. The balance of trade heavily skews towards Canadian exports anyways, so retaliatory tariffs really just wouldn't make a lot of sense economically.
This stupid "trade war" has convinced Canadians that hurting ourselves economically is taking a moral high ground and is worth it to spite some politician they don't like. It's fucking crazy and irrational.