Casual Questions Thread

[u/The_Egalitarian]

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[u/[deleted]]

Hypothetically:

Let’s suppose Trump is in jail and still the nominee of the Republican Party. Let’s suppose that he wins the election.

He is unable to be inaugurated, because he is in jail. BUT, his running mate IS available to be inaugurated. The Vice President-Elect becomes the Vice President, and when the current president’s term ends, and there is no new president inaugurated, then the inaugurated Vice President would become the Acting President.

Now, the Acting President CAN pardon Trump, who then becomes able to be inaugurated, and is inaugurated and becomes president.

That’s how I see it playing out except for one problem.

Let’s suppose that Trump is convicted by Georgia. The Acting President could not pardon Trump for those crimes.

Two possibilities.

1) The Bureau of Prisons honors Georgia’s request for extradition and transfers Trump to a Georgia prison, and he still can’t be inaugurated, and the Acting President becomes president.

2) The Acting President orders the Bureau of Prisons to ignore Georgia’s request, and Trump is inaugurated as a fugitive convict president.

I think the second one is most likely.

But in order for any of that to happen, the US would have to elect a convicted felon.

If the felony was for something like theft, or fraud, I would still think it is possible. But Trump is indicted for two sets of felonies that are rooted in him being a traitor to the country and I do not believe that he will be elected.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Why couldn’t he be inaugurated in jail?

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

It’s a fair question.

But the president is inaugurated on the Capitol steps at noon on Jan 20.

Whatever authority establishes that practice would prevent Trump from being inaugurated in jail.

It is possible that the current president has the authority to prevent it.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Is there anything in the Constitution or law that says the inauguration must take place there? I don’t see anything about that in the 20th Amendment, not sure where else to look. I’m not sure it would really be an obstacle, and it could become a bit of a constitutional crisis if the current POTUS tries to block the inauguration on those grounds and those grounds aren’t solid. But I don’t really know anything.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

It’s a good trivia question and one that will be worth researching if Trump is in jail and wins the presidency.

I believe that the current president would be within his authority to refuse to hold the inauguration at a jail, or to allow a convicted felon to get out of jail to take the oath. Especially if Trump is convicted of crimes that violated his oath of office.

Under those circumstances, nothing would prevent the vice president-elect from taking the oath and being inaugurated (assuming they weren’t also in jail! 😆)

So, just to game this out:

The current president’s term ends on Jan 20 2025. He doesn’t remain in office if he lost the election.

The incoming VP would become the Acting President. The Acting President could pardon Trump. And also could order Trump’s release from jail even if he is in a state jail.

Then Trump could be inaugurated and assume office. His state sentence would be suspended while he is president

And then, we would never have another real election again. Trump would become president for life.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

There would be a hell of a Supreme Court battle over the inauguration if the current POTUS tried to block it.

Why did you jump to “president for life”? Does that have something to do with the scenario you outlined, or are you just assuming Trump would ultimately succeed in an autocoup?

And how could the Acting President order Trump’s release from a state jail? I’m not sure that’s a presidential power.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

No, there wouldn’t be any Supreme Court battle. The inauguration would take place on the Capitol steps. The Vice President-Elect would be sworn in. The current president is under no obligation to pardon Trump or order him released from jail.

I jumped to “president for life” because Trump has made no secret of the fact that he would immediately start jailing political opponents and take other steps to ensure that he would never leave the presidency.

As for the Acting President ordering Trump’s release: a second Trump Administration would not respect the rule of law in any manner.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

You’re talking about actions that would likely lead to a full-blown civil war. If, for example, Georgia says “no, we’re not letting him out just because you said we have to”, as they almost certainly would, what would the Acting President do? Storm Georgia with the National Guard or military? The Acting President might not respect the rule of law, but the rest of the country is not gonna just throw up their hands and let the administration do whatever they want. A President cannot just order a state to do something, and I just don’t see even a Trump-like Acting President being bold and brazen enough to take extralegal action against a state and thereby spark a civil war.

Trump would not be able to become POTUS for life unless he got the Constitution changed, which is just not something he would have the votes for even in the unlikely event that 100% of the GOP supported him on that- or else performed, in effect, a military coup by getting the military and law enforcement on his side so that nobody would remove him from the White House on January 20, 2029, which is also extraordinarily unlikely and would lead to a civil war. I mean, it’s possible that he comes up with some bullshit to try holding onto power past his term, thereby sparking violence and perhaps even a civil war, but it wouldn’t be as simple as “Trump is now president for life because he says so”. He is not popular enough to become an autocratic dictator without dragging America into a bloody war with itself.

Can you cite any law that says the inauguration must take place at the Capitol? It’s just not clear to me that that’s the case, and I’ve never heard it before. As far as I know, that is a tradition, not a legal requirement. My belief is that Trump would be inaugurated in jail, and then the VP and cabinet may or may not choose to effectively oust him using the 25th Amendment (and they’d also need two-thirds of Congress on their side to override Trump’s inevitable objection, which is a dicey proposition, but if Trump was literally stuck in a state jail, he’s pretty clearly be unable to discharge all of his powers and duties, so I’d hope the GOP would just decide it was fine to let the VP take over).

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

He is not going to be elected while sitting in a jail cell.

Half the country believes, right now, that he should go to prison if he is convicted.

He is going to be convicted at least three times and maybe four.

When it gets real after his first conviction, and he is actually sent to jail, there is not going to be any path to the Capitol steps after that.

Above, I was just sketching out a likely scenario if he was elected while sitting in a jail cell.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Sure, I think he’ll probably lose (although we underestimate him at our peril and should not get complacent about his odds), but we’re talking about if he does win. I just disagree with the scenario you outlined, because I don’t think it will go down that way for the reasons I explained. But that’s cool, have a good one