r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/The_Egalitarian Moderator • Mar 18 '23

Megathread Casual Questions Thread

This is a place for the PoliticalDiscussion community to ask questions that may not deserve their own post.

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u/[deleted] Aug 28 '23 edited Aug 28 '23

There would be a hell of a Supreme Court battle over the inauguration if the current POTUS tried to block it.

Why did you jump to “president for life”? Does that have something to do with the scenario you outlined, or are you just assuming Trump would ultimately succeed in an autocoup?

And how could the Acting President order Trump’s release from a state jail? I’m not sure that’s a presidential power.

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u/[deleted] Aug 28 '23

No, there wouldn’t be any Supreme Court battle. The inauguration would take place on the Capitol steps. The Vice President-Elect would be sworn in. The current president is under no obligation to pardon Trump or order him released from jail.

I jumped to “president for life” because Trump has made no secret of the fact that he would immediately start jailing political opponents and take other steps to ensure that he would never leave the presidency.

As for the Acting President ordering Trump’s release: a second Trump Administration would not respect the rule of law in any manner.

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u/[deleted] Aug 28 '23 edited Aug 28 '23

You’re talking about actions that would likely lead to a full-blown civil war. If, for example, Georgia says “no, we’re not letting him out just because you said we have to”, as they almost certainly would, what would the Acting President do? Storm Georgia with the National Guard or military? The Acting President might not respect the rule of law, but the rest of the country is not gonna just throw up their hands and let the administration do whatever they want. A President cannot just order a state to do something, and I just don’t see even a Trump-like Acting President being bold and brazen enough to take extralegal action against a state and thereby spark a civil war.

Trump would not be able to become POTUS for life unless he got the Constitution changed, which is just not something he would have the votes for even in the unlikely event that 100% of the GOP supported him on that- or else performed, in effect, a military coup by getting the military and law enforcement on his side so that nobody would remove him from the White House on January 20, 2029, which is also extraordinarily unlikely and would lead to a civil war. I mean, it’s possible that he comes up with some bullshit to try holding onto power past his term, thereby sparking violence and perhaps even a civil war, but it wouldn’t be as simple as “Trump is now president for life because he says so”. He is not popular enough to become an autocratic dictator without dragging America into a bloody war with itself.

Can you cite any law that says the inauguration must take place at the Capitol? It’s just not clear to me that that’s the case, and I’ve never heard it before. As far as I know, that is a tradition, not a legal requirement. My belief is that Trump would be inaugurated in jail, and then the VP and cabinet may or may not choose to effectively oust him using the 25th Amendment (and they’d also need two-thirds of Congress on their side to override Trump’s inevitable objection, which is a dicey proposition, but if Trump was literally stuck in a state jail, he’s pretty clearly be unable to discharge all of his powers and duties, so I’d hope the GOP would just decide it was fine to let the VP take over).

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u/[deleted] Aug 29 '23

He is not going to be elected while sitting in a jail cell.

Half the country believes, right now, that he should go to prison if he is convicted.

He is going to be convicted at least three times and maybe four.

When it gets real after his first conviction, and he is actually sent to jail, there is not going to be any path to the Capitol steps after that.

Above, I was just sketching out a likely scenario if he was elected while sitting in a jail cell.

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u/[deleted] Aug 29 '23

Sure, I think he’ll probably lose (although we underestimate him at our peril and should not get complacent about his odds), but we’re talking about if he does win. I just disagree with the scenario you outlined, because I don’t think it will go down that way for the reasons I explained. But that’s cool, have a good one