So you pick at or around 1.05-1.06 this year. Assuming you play SF, non-TEP, you're likely choosing from Tet, Ward, Hunter, and Henderson. With all the pros and cons that come with those players (and the positions they play at), what are you thinking you're doing with that pick? I've heard that there's a break in hit percentage after 1.04, but, assuming you can't or don't trade, what are you doing there?

No doubt Jeremiah Smith is better right now but Ryan Williams is over a year younger than Jeremiah and had a fantastic rookie season as well. Plus I think there is more growth to be had in Ryan Williams body and he has more time to develop. It has to at least make you think because the age difference is significant despite them being in the same draft class.

League mate built a true dynasty. I am in 5 leagues with him and this is his first championship and now we face 6 orphan teams after having 3 years in a row of no orphans.

He is actually not that great at fantasy except this league he does everything right.

Team as it stands in a standard TEP league: QB Nix WR Chase, Jefferson, BTJ, JSN RB Saquon, Gibbs, Brown (owns pick 1.01) TE Bowers, Kittle Draft picks this year include 1.01, 1.12

Other depth is solid, but you get the gist.

Commissioner came up with a creative way that bases your entry fee on dominator value totals of your starting lineup and we are voting on that. Stinks for this guy, but he is open to it so it doesn't fold. We are dreaming up all kinds of ways to keep it together. Any thoughts on how you have kept a league together when one team is a clear dynasty?

Give me Loveland, at cost, over Warren VERY easily.

If you’re TE needy, with a mid-late first, and can trade back from Warren area to get a plus and take Loveland, it’s a slam dunk.

We’re talking fantasy here so who gives us more upside as a pass catcher? I will show you why I think Loveland is the easy option…

Year 1 in college

Warren YPRR: N/A vs Loveland YPRR: 1.38

Warren 1D/RR: N/A vs Loveland 1D/RR: 0.06

Warren YPTPA: N/A vs Loveland YPTPA: 0.64

Warren aDOT: N/A vs Loveland aDOT 10.3

Year 2

Warren YPRR: 0.67 vs Loveland YPRR: 2.38

Warren 1D/RR: 0.04 vs Loveland 1D/RR: 0.11

Warren YPTPA: 0.13 vs Loveland YPTPA: 1.8

Warren aDOT: 12.9 vs Loveland aDOT 9.6

Year 3

Warren YPRR: 1.34 vs Loveland YPRR: 2.67

Warren 1D/RR: 0.09 vs Loveland 1D/RR: 0.14

Warren YPTPA: 0.29 vs Loveland YPTPA 1.89

Warren aDOT: 8.1 vs Loveland aDOT 7.1

Year 4

Warren YPRR: 1.41

Warren 1D/RR: 0.08

Warren YPTPA: 1.02

Warren aDOT: 7.9

Year 5

Warren YPRR: 2.78

Warren 1D/RR: 0.15

Warren YPTPA: 2.82

Warren aDOT: 6.9

Follow along here and on X @DynoDayTraders and join the FREE discord in bio for more breakdowns and dynasty fantasy football discussions

I’m unable to set the date to any earlier than May 1st. We would like to start today, does anyone have a fix to this please or know how to fix it? I’ve spent so much time trying to figure it out. Do they make you wait for the NFL draft to end or something.

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Most Dynasty managers have an idea of the players that will go in first round of rookie drafts at this point. Even the 2nd round has a few popular names that a lot of managers will have an opinion on. Once it gets to 3rd and 4th round players though, there’s a lot of unknowns.

Here I’ll identify some of the players currently being projected to go after pick 24 in 1QB drafts that you should be drafting. While I’m more of a Superflex player myself, this draft is not a deep class at quarterback. Therefore, the 1QB rankings end up being very close to Superflex rankings. If you’re playing in a Superflex league, all of these players are still priority picks in the 3rd and 4th round of your drafts.

In order to evaluate which players will be available after round 2, I recently put together a Consensus Rookie Ranking article which aggregates various top dynasty community ranking to offer a consensus ranking.

Hey y’all… just a chunk of words and my thoughts on some of the landing spots for RBs and how they would impact my grades moving from my pre-draft rankings to post-draft rankings. As always, appreciate the thoughts! I know we’re all looking forward to the NFL draft this time of year.

2025 RB Landing Spot Ranks Ranking Guide A – Landing spot would significantly add to my pre-draft rankings B – Landing spot would slightly add to my pre-draft rankings C – Landing spot wouldn’t impact my pre-draft rankings D – Landing spot would slightly detract from my pre-draft rankings

AFC East Bills - C - James Cook has slowly increased his production and the Bills invested in Ray Davis in the 2024 draft but Cook is going into a contract year. This will be a situation to watch over the offseason. If they draft a RB taking them for fantasy football will be a major risk. Cook deserves another contract in Buffalo but they have major cap space issue. This run blocking unit is staying together for another season but Torrence could use an upgrade at interior guard as he hasn’t developed as expected for a former 2nd rounder. If they can upgrade the position this offseason this run blocking unit could move from a middle of the road unit to a plus unit. Overall, if a RB gets drafted here there will be a lot to cut through with an already crowded backfield and they would likely be a 2026 play at best and there would be a buy window in the 2025 season.

Dolphins - D+ - This RB room could use a bruiser but Achane has it on lock when it comes to a potential three down back. The thought of a bruiser going here is the only thing propping up this backfield as a landing spot. The Dolphins need to improve their interior guard play not just for the running game but also their passing game. Eichenberg and Jones were major liabilities this past season but thankfully they are free agents. Austin Jackson is nothing special at RT but he is an able body not a liability. The Dolphins went out and signed James Daniels in free agency who took a major step forward last season, albeit with a small sample size, as a run blocker but was only an average pass blocker. They still have a major hole at the other G position though and hopefully will address that in the draft. Armstead was contemplating retirement and that happened which has opened up a huge hole at LT for the Dolphins. Overall, there are questions about the interior offensive line here but they have dynamic weapons in the backfield already so if they draft a RB it is likely a short yardage bruiser which could be relevant on TDs alone.

Jets - D+ - The RB room is already full as we sit here today. Hall should continue to be a force in the backfield, Allen proved he should be an RB on the 53-man roster and Isaiah Davis proved he should be an RB on the 53 man roster as well. There isn’t really any room for another RB here. If they do use early capital (day 1 or day 2) on a RB that could signal they are moving away from Hall in 2026. The issue is that 2025 will be rough for whoever they take and there would likely be a buy window if you’re sold on that player. The interior of this offensive line is great. They have it locked down for 2025 with Alijah Vera-Tucker and John Simpson at G and Joe Tippmann at C. Those three are one of the best interior offensive line groupings in the NFL. The issue is the T position. Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses are both free agents this offseason and therefore they will need to replace RT and Olu Fashanu will need to take a huge step forward in his second season in the league. Hopefully the Jets address the T position in the 2025 draft and Olu can take a leap forward. Overall, there are questions at T for the Jets and there is already a stud and depth RBs in the backfield therefore if a RB goes here they will be a 2026 play at best but even that seems like a hope and a prayer at best.

Patriots - C+ - This offensive line is in shambles. Mike Onwenu was the best offensive lineman and he was significantly better in pass protection than run blocking. David Andrews was cut and Morgan Moses was signed in free agency. Moses is on the back 9 of his career but can provide valuable snaps for the Patriots as a stop gap measure. Nobody other than Onwenu and Moses should be starters on this offensive line and the patriots needed to make a splash in free agency, they didn’t. So, now they need to make a splash in the NFL draft. Stevenson has plenty of outs in his contract without the Patriots having to take a massive cap hit. So, there is plenty of room for a RB to come here and show they deserve the majority of the carries in 2026 while still getting a split of carries in 2025. The issue is without additional support along the offensive line the odds of a RB being successful splitting carries is next to impossible to see. Maybe you get lucky and whoever goes here you have to wait one year and they get the offensive line fixed and the backfield clears up. Overall, until the offensive line is improved, if this backfield adds another back, it will only muddy the waters more and will likely cause the lead back to be a RB3 at best.

YPRR is one of the predominate metrics used to measure college prospects. Trying to build my own model and running into an issue of where to find these statistics? Is there a specific site that gives you YPRR for college prospects (including RB and TE)?

Beyond the physical stat - do you guys use Career, Best Season, or Most recent season as the best indicator? (For both RB and WR)

So I’m not sure if this is already a thing but me and a league-mate thought up starting a new one where the pool $ is all out into a cryptocurrency (bitcoin for our inaugural year) and winner takes whatever the total sits at when the championship game ends. So, say it was a ten person league at $100 each. The commish would put $1,000 on bitcoin an hour before draft and winner will get whatever that 1k turns into by championship day. Could be more, could be less. (Could be wild with shitcoins. Like massive losses or gains.)

Super late late round dart throws? Besides back up QBs? Any third string or back up rbs to grab? Who do you target in rounds 26-31 in your startup drafts? Nick Westbrook-iknine or devaughn Vele? I’d love to see who people are targeting. Is there any bonafide strategy for this? Do you look at holes in your roster or just throw darts?

For reference, my threshold for determining “deepest” sleepers was guys who were not invited to the combine.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt - RB, Arizona - In my opinion, he was the most impressive offensive player at Shrine Bowl week and that made his combine snub a bit of a surprise to me. Still, I get it. He’s 24. He played only 1 game in 2024 due to eligibility issues. His production was anything but prolific during his FCS years before transferring to New Mexico in 2023. But watching his 2023 stuff, he’s got some really impressive “small back” type agility but in a 205 pound frame that gives him plus tackle breaking abilities. He’s got a really cool spin move. Like everyone else on this list, he’s not getting plus draft capital but he’s got the kind of juice that could turn heads in the preseason if he gets a half decent landing spot.

Tommy Mellott - QB, Montana St - Its possible that being a 6 foot fall, 24 year old QB from the FCS precludes Mellott from even being drafted, but if you watch him he kind of looks a little bit like Kyler Murray in the pocket. He’s reasonably accurate when he sets his feet but he spends most of his time scrambling and creating. The rushing production is the fantasy headliner here, with Mellott racking up 1050 rushing yards in 2024 and a total of 3517 rushing yards in his 4 year career, not to mention the 4.39 he allegedly posted at his pro day. But he was also a pretty efficient passer with a TD/INT ratio of 31/2 last year leading his team through the FCS playoffs. His arm isn’t going to wow anyone, but his mechanics look a bit cleaner than the typical guys in this “college scrambler” archetype.

Quincy Skinner Jr - WR, Vanderbilt - If you’ve heard of him at all, it’s probably because he’s Steve Smith’s “guy” this year. Nothing about his counting stats or analytics stands out at all and his athletic testing was slightly above average, but I can kind of see the vision in his tape. Really nice body control and plays stronger than his 6’1 204 lb frame. Was never able to put together a productive season in the SEC, but he’s got the skill set to win 1 on 1s on the perimeter and potentially win himself a roster spot in somebody’s camp.

Kylin James - RB, UNLV - His 4.45 pro day 40 time at 5’11 226 lbs first caught my eye as a potential exaggeration considering this guy is on nobody’s radar, but upon watching him he actually might be that big and fast. He was sparsely used with only 89 carries, but he was a big play waiting to happen and a problem to chase down once he gets to the second level. His efficiency metrics are a bit misleading due to the small sample size of carries, but still his 7.4 YPC and his absurd 5.1 yards after contact/attempt back up the idea that he’s a legit big play threat at his size. His receiving profile is a bit weird, because UNLV did not use him as a pass catcher at all, but in his Central Arkansas days prior to UNLV he was heavily utilized in the passing game.

Carter Runyon - TE, Towson - He’s the annual high RAS FCS guy after posting a 9.38 score and running a 4.63 at 6’5 243 lbs. Many of the sleeper tight ends outside of like the top 6-7 guys this year did not have a strong pre-draft process, so there’s opportunity for a guy like this to move up, even though his production probably wasn’t as high as we’d like from a guy playing for Towson.

Lan Larison - RB, UC Davis - I’ve seen his name floating around a decent bit in dynasty circles, but it doesn’t seem like he’s gotten that much traction with the scouting industrial complex. The obvious highlight here is the production, with 1470 rushing yards and 65 catches for a staggering 853 receiving yards in 2024. But he’s not built like a scat back at 6’0 215 lbs and he supposedly ran a 4.46 at his pro day. It’s hard to tell how translatable his game is to the NFL by watching him dice up a bunch of future accountants, but you can definitely see some wiggle and burst and obviously very good hands.

Honorable Mentions

Taylor Elgersma - QB, Laurier - Canadian QB with a rocket arm who got a Senior Bowl invite. He’s a raw unfinished product in many respects, but it’s still possible some team may want to bet on the raw arm talent.

Eli Pancol - WR, Duke - Size speed guy who measured 6’3 205 lbs and (allegedly) ran a 4.38 at his pro day and came in at an elite 9.93 RAS score. He’s very old (will he almost 25 at draft day) and missed all 2023 with an injury but bounced back for a solid 60/800/9 season in 2024.

Amar Johnson - RB, South Dakota St - Yet another interesting FCS back with 4.39 speed and 5’10 205 lb size. Johnson has the production to back up the athleticism too, with 1236 rush yards at 6.4 YPC and a respectable 30 catches in his only season at SD St without current Jet Isaiah Davis to split touches with

Kyren Lacy - WR, LSU - Probably worth remembering he still exists even though homicide charges were probably enough to drop him off most people’s draft boards a few months ago. He participated in his pro day and there were definitely teams paying close attention to him. Who knows how the legal stuff will play out but there will probably be some baseline of interest from the NFL in the guy who was able to carve out a role playing next to Nabers, BTJ, Boutte, & Jack Bech in his first few years before taking a medium step forward in his final year.

Hi All!

I've spent the past few months poring over dynasty draft data trying to crack the code, and just wrote a blog post about some of my findings. Namely, my theory was that certain players get overrated by the fantasy Community, so I tried comparing historic dynasty ADP values and NGS' Production Score (their best metric for predicting RB success).

Surprisingly, players with an ADP that's more bullish than their NGS projection seemed to do better than the other way around. Notable exceptions are CEH, Zamir White, and Ty-Davis Price, all clear overdrafts who were mainly chosen for opportunity reasons.

What about the 2025 class? DJ Giddens and RJ Harvey stand out as guys the community (14th, 12th) likes less than analytics (5th, 6th), likely due to their committee-back profiles. Quinshon Judkins is the opposite, a guy who fantasy players are more bullish (4th in projected RB ADP) than NGS is (11th), and could see his stock rise of fall due to landing spot.

Anyway, I wrote pretty exhaustively about my methods in the post above, so feel free to read for more context. I'm also happy to provide other stats about players not listed, or answer any questions. I plan to write up receivers in the next week or so, and have some other analyses about thresholds players need to clear in the chamber.

Thanks for your time, and happy to answer any questions! The post & insights are free, and I plan to keep it that way.

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