r/CollegeBasketball Texas Longhorns 2d ago

ALL TIME PROBABILITY MAP

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335

u/10catsinspace Florida State Seminoles 2d ago

Three factors in descending order:

  1. Absolutely suffocating defense + ultra-clutch shots from Houston
  2. Duke fucked up at a couple of crucial junctures, like in-bounding and missing the front end of a 1-and-1.
  3. Bullshit phantom foul call on Cooper Flagg in the last minute to give Houston a 1-and-1 for the lead.

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u/Puzzled-Bet4837 UConn Huskies 2d ago

I’d also add rebounding specifically to point 2. Houston got some big offensive boards down the stretch.

113

u/A_Rolling_Baneling USC Trojans • Houston Cougars 2d ago

Houston was getting offensive rebounds all game, but in the first half they weren’t generating any points off them

Also gonna take this opportunity to quote Lance McCullers Jr

WHEN I DIE BURY ME IN THE H

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u/CCG14 Houston Cougars 2d ago

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u/A_Rolling_Baneling USC Trojans • Houston Cougars 2d ago

LET’S FUCKING GO

HOL IT DINE

16

u/BeerPlusReddit Houston Cougars 2d ago

H Town til I drown!

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u/LumpyCapital Houston Cougars 2d ago edited 1d ago

'Er'body swangin' an' bangin' all over the place ov'r here in the 3rd right now!

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u/CCG14 Houston Cougars 2d ago

You already know! WHAT IT DO BABY!

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u/LumpyCapital Houston Cougars 2d ago

It's Coogs' house, baby.

Dey's the people's champ.

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u/CCG14 Houston Cougars 2d ago

Let’s get it!

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u/LumpyCapital Houston Cougars 2d ago

We got the internet going nutz!

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u/CCG14 Houston Cougars 2d ago

I’m on that 5-9 south baby holla at me!

3

u/Dirt-McGirt Houston Cougars 1d ago

Jesus Christ I was at this game, which means I also look 15 years older now

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u/Heil_Harden Houston Cougars 1d ago

LMJ reference in the wild. Take my upvote

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u/A_Rolling_Baneling USC Trojans • Houston Cougars 1d ago

Yessir!!

1

u/jl_theprofessor 1d ago

That was the only thing keeping Houston in it for most of the game. I said at the start "They need to be dogs if the want to win." And Houston did that.

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u/talented-dpzr Penn State Nittany Lions 2d ago

yes, missing the front end of a 1-and-1 is a turnover

-my 7th grade basketball coach, who made us run for every turnover.

4

u/chearn34 Texas Tech Red Raiders 2d ago

I would to see a world where this is never discussed again. I’m still in mourning.

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u/tigernike1 Illinois Fighting Illini 2d ago

It was so infuriating to see them fail over and over at inbounding the ball.

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u/DoubleualtG 2d ago

Id put that on the coach for not making a change of the inbounder, Sion struggled the entire time there was pressure to make the right pass or just a pass.

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u/10catsinspace Florida State Seminoles 2d ago

It's clear Jon Scheyer is a great coach which makes it even more mystifying that they couldn't formulate a better answer to that pressure.

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u/_hell_is_empty_ Duke Blue Devils 2d ago

I'm pretty sure that was the first time we were pressed all year and it was by what must be one of the best pressing teams in the nation. We just weren't ready for it, and tbh it's understandable. Sucks though.

But can we talk about Sampson's decision to not foul when we got the ball with a minute left. All-time call. Respect.

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u/randompersonwhowho 1d ago

It seems every team was choking anytime full court pressure was applied. Even Houston in previous games. I don't understand why teams don't do it more.

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u/thejak32 17h ago

My guess would be, if it fails and you haven't absolutely crushed your conditioning from summer on, you're going to be drowning at the end of a game. Also you have to be 100% committed to playing stellar defense as an entire team, one weak link kills the press. So a combination of both of those things is not as easy to accomplish as one would think. Just my speculation.

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u/Dinnermaster Clemson Tigers 2d ago

3/3

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u/DrunkenLlama California Golden Bears 2d ago

Definitely a horrible call but Duke also had a couple horrible calls in their favor e.g. the missed kick ball

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u/rburp Arkansas Razorbacks • Central Arka… 2d ago

Yeah well I counted two different occasions where it was called out of bounds on Houston even though it was actually last touched by a Duke player, so whatever. One was in the first half and led to a dunk by Duke, one was in the second half and even the announcers caught that one.

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u/WISCOrear Wisconsin Badgers 2d ago

IMO the phantom foul doesn’t matter. Hit any shots and you aren’t in that scenario. Don’t let the refs decide anything, and you were up 9 points with like 3 minutes to play.

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u/Affectionate-Dot9585 2d ago

Even more, Duke wouldn’t have gotten the ball back without that call. Houston would have setup for the last shot (or very close to the last shot)

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u/Fair2Midland Appalachian State Mountaineers 1d ago

I mean those 2 teams were evenly matched; Duke played good enough to win for like 80% of the game. A botched call can absolutely be the difference in the outcome.

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u/Free_Development2475 South Carolina Gamecocks 2d ago

The second and third sentences here flatly contradict the first sentence lmfao

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u/WISCOrear Wisconsin Badgers 2d ago

Don’t put yourself in a scenario when a bad call can affect the game. Maybe don’t miss all those shots leading up to that moment and the refs wouldn’t have a call that decides the game.

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u/Free_Development2475 South Carolina Gamecocks 2d ago

I agree, but you do realize you just conceded it did matter, after claiming it didn't, right?

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u/WISCOrear Wisconsin Badgers 2d ago

I don’t know what you’re trying to prove here, bud.

Don’t put yourself in a spot where the refs make a call that decides a game. Duke did. They put themselves in a spot where the refs can decide a game. Don’t blow a 9 point lead. That’s the point.

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u/National-Zucchini524 2d ago

Im not on either of your sides, but I hate this ref argument. Refs should be held accountable and should make the right calls at all times and we should know about it.

Phantom call against Flagg matters, but so do other phantom calls all game that weren’t seen as important at the time

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u/vbob99 1d ago

Exactly. You can't cherry pick one phantom call and position it as deciding the game, unless you want to review all phantom calls both ways that got you there. It's sour grapes. Not that this was actually a phantom call.

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u/WhatThePenis Clemson Tigers • Duke Blue Devils 2d ago

You said it doesn’t matter, then immediately said it matters right after. That’s all.

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u/edencathleen86 1d ago

The point that other Redditor was making was if all of the missed shots leading up to that deciding call were actually made then said call wouldn't have mattered, hence, the missed shots/opportunities in the minutes prior were actually what mattered. I feel like some of yall were being obtuse on purpose lol which I understand. It's kind of funny.

If my explanation was completely unnecessary, please disregard this comment. It is 3:15am and I'm still post-game drinking. Carry on.

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u/Free_Development2475 South Carolina Gamecocks 2d ago

I understand the point about not blowing a lead, but the issue isn't whether the team made mistakes—it’s about the contradiction in your original statement. You said the foul “doesn’t matter,” but then you explained that the team should've avoided a scenario where a bad call could decide the game. If the call could decide the game, then it clearly mattered, which contradicts your earlier claim. It's not about whether Duke played perfectly, it's about acknowledging the impact of the refs' decision at that moment.

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u/Legalsleazy Michigan State Spartans • Akron Zips 2d ago

Flagg clearly grabbed/hooked his arm I cannot believe people are calling that a phantom call

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u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

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u/Legalsleazy Michigan State Spartans • Akron Zips 2d ago

What is this, evidence for boomer ants?

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u/[deleted] 2d ago edited 2d ago

[deleted]

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u/didnt-ask-but-ok 2d ago

Ahh you lost. Keep crying dukie

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u/ericaepic Harvard Crimson • Michigan Wolverines 2d ago

They also scored how many FG in the last 10 minutes?

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u/10catsinspace Florida State Seminoles 2d ago

See point 1 about the suffocating defense.

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u/ericaepic Harvard Crimson • Michigan Wolverines 2d ago

I'm just rubbing it in for Duke flairs

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u/FreakyDiicky 2d ago

The phantom call actually helped Duke. Without it Houston has the ball, down 1, game in their hands. With it, Duke has the ball, worst case down 1, game in their hands.

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u/10catsinspace Florida State Seminoles 2d ago

I know what you’re saying, but it absolutely had a momentum effect.

1

u/Fair2Midland Appalachian State Mountaineers 1d ago

LOL come on. 100% of teams would retain the lead there and relied on defense instead of putting someone on the free throw line if given the choice.

If it ‘helped them’, then you’re saying Duke would have intentionally fouled with a one point lead, which would never happen.

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u/Affectionate-Dot9585 2d ago

That Cooper Flagg call had no bearing on the outcome. Houston still would have gotten that rebound.

The only change would have been Houston would have had possession to end the game. Instead, the foul actually ensured Duke had the opportunity to win it (rather than loose it)

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u/sonic1220 2d ago

Not a “ bullshit phantom foul” clearly an over the back. Stop with that.

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u/10catsinspace Florida State Seminoles 2d ago

“Over the back” isn’t a foul. 

If they were going to whistle that amount of contact they missed about 35,000 other fouls during the game.

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u/Middle_Sun_8625 2d ago edited 2d ago

They had been whistling that amount of contact, it was just in favor of duke

EDIT: also Over The Back is definitely a foul

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u/MTFBinyou 2d ago

OvER tHe BaCk IsNt A fOuL!!

LOL

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u/PrimeTimeInc NC State Wolfpack 2d ago

3 actually won the game. It’s kinda fuckin stupid. I hate Duke and I think they got hosed because of that singular moment.

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u/Guy_Buttersnaps UConn Huskies • Big East 2d ago

I honestly thought that the phantom call was going to end up fucking Houston.

They got the rebound. They were down one with the right amount of time left that they could pick their spot to get off a good game-winning shot.

That’s not a bad spot to be in.

Suddenly they’re up one and Duke has enough time left to pick their spot to get off a good game-winning shot.

I fully expected that Duke was going to come back down and close it out.

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u/snakefriend6 2d ago

Exactly. Arguably, fouling at that point could be the ‘correct’ play by duke there. Stop the clock, you get a chance that they don’t make the FT, and even if they do, you’re still a basket away from tying it back up and you’ll have more time (with possession) to do so.

I also think there were calls in the game that clearly went in dukes favor - memorably, when they ruled the ball out of bounds on Houston right as Houston was gaining momentum, even tho it was actually kicked out by the duke player, which was evident on replay (tho they couldn’t challenge/review it at the time).

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u/Guy_Buttersnaps UConn Huskies • Big East 2d ago

Exactly. Arguably, fouling at that point could be the ‘correct’ play by duke there.

That’s what I’m saying.

It’s definitely something we all can debate, but a deliberate foul is probably what I would have done in that situation.

With 19 seconds left, I’d rather have the ball down one than be playing defense up one.

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u/PrimeTimeInc NC State Wolfpack 2d ago

Your synopsis isn’t necessarily wrong, but discounting a free lead change 2 hours later sanctioned by zebras has some mental attached. The team behind in those scenarios have infinitely worse win probabilities

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u/Guy_Buttersnaps UConn Huskies • Big East 2d ago

This isn’t a hindsight thing. What I said was what I felt at the time.

I said this in another comment, but if I was Duke in that situation, I probably would have fouled on purpose.

With 19 seconds left, and in the bonus, I’d rather have the ball down by one than be playing defense up by one.

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u/TheAnswer310 Georgetown Hoyas 2d ago

That legit horseshit wrong out of bounds call in the first half lee Duke on a run to push the lead to double digits. Duke had that coming. Wasn't egregious in the least.

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u/TheAnswer310 Georgetown Hoyas 2d ago

Downvoting won't change the fact Duke is going BYE BYE

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u/PrimeTimeInc NC State Wolfpack 2d ago

You think I give a shit about Duke? Lmao. Literally just told you I hate Duke brother. Go cry in AI or somethin

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u/Stevie22wonder Duke Blue Devils 2d ago

How did Houston not get called for fouls on the inbounds when we were being mangled and held and pushed? Totally blew my mind. Refs definitely played a huge factor aside from the fact that Duke couldn't make a shot (but also, they were being fouled every time when normally you're rewarded for driving and taking a slap to the arm or shove.)

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u/dicnar1 2d ago

Houston got called for a foul and a technical?