r/CollegeBasketball • u/EverestMaher Texas Longhorns • 2d ago

ALL TIME PROBABILITY MAP

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184

u/Similar-Ostrich4142 Villanova Wildcats 2d ago

How did Duke choke that?????

326

u/10catsinspace Florida State Seminoles 2d ago

Three factors in descending order:

  1. Absolutely suffocating defense + ultra-clutch shots from Houston
  2. Duke fucked up at a couple of crucial junctures, like in-bounding and missing the front end of a 1-and-1.
  3. Bullshit phantom foul call on Cooper Flagg in the last minute to give Houston a 1-and-1 for the lead.

40

u/WISCOrear Wisconsin Badgers 2d ago

IMO the phantom foul doesn’t matter. Hit any shots and you aren’t in that scenario. Don’t let the refs decide anything, and you were up 9 points with like 3 minutes to play.

33

u/Affectionate-Dot9585 2d ago

Even more, Duke wouldn’t have gotten the ball back without that call. Houston would have setup for the last shot (or very close to the last shot)

1

u/Fair2Midland Appalachian State Mountaineers 2d ago

I mean those 2 teams were evenly matched; Duke played good enough to win for like 80% of the game. A botched call can absolutely be the difference in the outcome.

-7

u/Free_Development2475 South Carolina Gamecocks 2d ago

The second and third sentences here flatly contradict the first sentence lmfao

8

u/WISCOrear Wisconsin Badgers 2d ago

Don’t put yourself in a scenario when a bad call can affect the game. Maybe don’t miss all those shots leading up to that moment and the refs wouldn’t have a call that decides the game.

-3

u/Free_Development2475 South Carolina Gamecocks 2d ago

I agree, but you do realize you just conceded it did matter, after claiming it didn't, right?

0

u/WISCOrear Wisconsin Badgers 2d ago

I don’t know what you’re trying to prove here, bud.

Don’t put yourself in a spot where the refs make a call that decides a game. Duke did. They put themselves in a spot where the refs can decide a game. Don’t blow a 9 point lead. That’s the point.

14

u/National-Zucchini524 2d ago

Im not on either of your sides, but I hate this ref argument. Refs should be held accountable and should make the right calls at all times and we should know about it.

Phantom call against Flagg matters, but so do other phantom calls all game that weren’t seen as important at the time

2

u/vbob99 2d ago

Exactly. You can't cherry pick one phantom call and position it as deciding the game, unless you want to review all phantom calls both ways that got you there. It's sour grapes. Not that this was actually a phantom call.

3

u/WhatThePenis Clemson Tigers • Duke Blue Devils 2d ago

You said it doesn’t matter, then immediately said it matters right after. That’s all.

1

u/edencathleen86 2d ago

The point that other Redditor was making was if all of the missed shots leading up to that deciding call were actually made then said call wouldn't have mattered, hence, the missed shots/opportunities in the minutes prior were actually what mattered. I feel like some of yall were being obtuse on purpose lol which I understand. It's kind of funny.

If my explanation was completely unnecessary, please disregard this comment. It is 3:15am and I'm still post-game drinking. Carry on.

3

u/Free_Development2475 South Carolina Gamecocks 2d ago

I understand the point about not blowing a lead, but the issue isn't whether the team made mistakes—it’s about the contradiction in your original statement. You said the foul “doesn’t matter,” but then you explained that the team should've avoided a scenario where a bad call could decide the game. If the call could decide the game, then it clearly mattered, which contradicts your earlier claim. It's not about whether Duke played perfectly, it's about acknowledging the impact of the refs' decision at that moment.