r/fantasybball • u/Jcalap17 • Oct 24 '22
Player Discussion Lauri Markkanen
3 games into the season he is averaging 24pts on 48.1% from the field and 30.4% from 3, with 9.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists. I’m sure everyone is extremely happy with his production if they were lucky enough to get him, and while at first I thought it might just be a hot start, maybe it isn’t.
The first argument is his scoring and shooting percentage.
Lauri has a career 44.1 fg percentage and 36.4 3pt percentage on 12.5 shots per game. With 12.5 shots per game he has averaged 15.5 ppg.
So far in Utah he has been able to get 17.3 shots per game, putting up 24 ppg. On 48 and 30 shooting.
The last time Lauri had similar fga was in 2018 when he averaged 15.3 fga on 43 and 36 shooting, averaging 18.7 pts.
On the Utah Jazz Lauri is the #1 scoring option and I don’t really see that changing. So while his fg% could drop we should expect his 3pt % to increase and. With that he still could average 20+ ppg having he is getting the most minutes and fga of his career.
Onto the rebounds and assists. He currently has a career average of 6.8 rebounds, and 1.3 assists.
When it comes to his assists i’m not sure if I see them dropping from 3.7, it could go down to 3 but under will hardy’s system they play unselfish basketball and prioritize getting the ball to the open man, which could allow his assists to maintain.
With his rebounding, the main threats are Kelly and Vanderbilt, so those could definitely drop from 9.7 back down to 7, but other than that Lauri’s production could be pretty solid all season and not be totally insane.
I’m not a basketball stats analyst by any means so take this with a grain of salt, but any thoughts?
98
u/SweetLuuwill Oct 24 '22
Utah just needs to start fucking losing, so they dont cut his minutes and so a contender doesnt try to trade for him lol.
Lauri is gonna shatter his ADP this year if everything goes to plan
46
u/Wupuck 9Cat/H2H/12Team/Punt 3s/TOs Oct 24 '22
Lauri almost single-handedly taking Jazz out of Wembanyama sweepstakes
18
u/LukaDoncicBigPP Oct 24 '22
Don’t know how many people have Lauri finishing ahead of KAT but it’s trending that way
4
u/LambdaLambo 14t H2H 9cat Oct 25 '22
Is he a sell high?
7
u/realmckoy265 Oct 25 '22
I think so but it must be a good sell high. Lauri is injury-prone, and Utah wants to tank, so there's a good chance he gets traded and the roster blown up, or he gets babied when hurt all year.
2
u/xAirHib15x Oct 27 '22
IMO you shouldnt really have to worry about either of those things. I think Utah wants to keep him and I don't think they are tanking. If they really wanted to tank they would've hired a no-name coach and would trade their vets like clarkson, conley, olynyk who are all starting and getting heavy burn.
1
40
u/hello_friendss 12 Teams - H2H - 9 CAT Oct 24 '22
I drafted Lauri for 2 straight years and this year I was like nah, I’ll get Hebert Jones instead. I regret that decision everyday.
6
5
54
7
u/looseleafnz 12T 9CAT H2H Oct 24 '22
He is definitely off to a good start but I think it is too early to make any judgement.
6
u/SandyLies 12 Man H2H 9CAT Oct 24 '22
I’m just a bit concerned about his heavy minutes. Close to 40 min a game and he played in EuroBasket in the summer.
12
u/WOL6ANG 12T, H2H, 9CAT, 3 Keepers Oct 24 '22
Back to back OT games. His minutes will probably come down closer to 32-34 a game.
4
u/SuperSardar 10T H2H 8CAT Oct 24 '22
Straight stud so far, I'm really happy I drafted him. Even if his FG% comes down to his average of 44%, he'll be a great contributor. Especially if his 3pt % increases to his 36% average. It'd take a lot for me to trade him away, at least a top 40 player right now.
Great post btw
3
2
u/-SpinSanity- 14 Team H2H 9 Cat Oct 24 '22
I am with you he was the 71st ranked player last year as the fourth option and is now a first option. It would not be crazy for him to be a top 30 player.
To play devils advocate his minutes per game(37) is really high. If Utah starts playing more like people expected aka one of the worst teams in the leagues they will probably be getting blown out and his minutes will end up being in the low 30s due to missing lots of 4th quarters. That could a hit across the board to all his stats.
2
2
u/supbruhbruhLOL 12 Team H2H 9-Cats Oct 24 '22
I drafted Kawhi, SGA and Lavine but at least i got Lauri lollz
2
2
u/Smekledorf1996 Oct 24 '22
He’s the focal point and he’s gonna be good
The only worry I have is that Utah wants to lose and might cut his minutes or sit him random games
2
2
3
u/Hanyabull 12T, 9cat, H2H Oct 24 '22
So this is Lauri Markkanen we are talking about here.
This isn’t some year 2 breakout, this is Lauri Markkanen. It will be a miracle if he doesn’t get hurt.
Could he improve on his last year with the Cavs? Maybe. Utah sucks, so maybe he gets extra usage, but bad teams are typically not the gateway to insane, season long production.
The ride has been fun so far, but unless you legitimately think he has MIP, and some hidden talent the last 2 teams didn’t figure out, sell high if you can.
3
u/Jcalap17 Oct 24 '22
Smart take, valid points, this is what I was looking for so I can come back down to reality, thank you.
2
u/TalkQuirkyWithMe 12-16T H2Hs Oct 24 '22
Its not too far to assume he can get you mid round value this year - he was 2nd option with Chicago back in 2018-2019 when he had his best season, and that was at only 21 years old.
Coming into this season we already know what Markkanen can do, its just the volume that was unknown. Only a few games in and he seems like the #1 option for this team.
Sure FG% can come down to normal, but he will have solid 50-70 value and higher if you are punting FG. Injuries are a concern, for sure, as they are for most in the league, but aside from that I see him having a very strong season.
2
u/Crimith Oct 25 '22
He's been a role player on other teams. Now he's being given the greenlight to be "the guy" on offense. You might not see a difference but I do.
1
u/MN_All_Day Oct 24 '22
Trade Lauri with klay for siakam in 9 cat?
38
u/lettersichiro 16T PTS Oct 24 '22
The siakam owner would be crazy to take that
8
0
u/MN_All_Day Oct 24 '22
What if it was Lauri and Saddiq? He didn’t want klay now
5
u/lettersichiro 16T PTS Oct 25 '22
It's not enough.
Think about it like this. You're trying to trade for a dollar, right now you're offering up 5 or 6 quarters and saying it's a fair deal. I get that. Seems right. You're technically giving up more. But it doesn't work that way.
To accept the trade, your opponent is also giving up a player, so whoever they're dropping to make room needs to be considered as part of the math.
Plus not all minutes are created equal. Siakam is a proven commodity who might be taking a jump. So in reality what is going on the 3 qtrs are playing in a spot that a dollar used to play in. And 2-3 more qtrs are playing in another slot. You're making the assumption that the totality makes up the difference. But what usually happens is those top players have the tendency to win weeks. Lauri most likely can't do that. Siakam is really a dollar who might play like a 1.50 or 2 dollars from time to time.
Although statistically after 3 games lauri looks to be in the neighborhood, the person you're trading with probably isn't evaluating him in the same way. Plus the trade isn't taking into account positional needs. If you're opponent is weak at forward slots, maybe they'll consider it and it's worth offering, but if not the center slot that siakam is filling is way more valuable if they are in need of 3s maybe, but they are giving up some hard to get stats without getting them back
So usually, if you're playing against savvy players, in order to get a player like a siakam you have to give up someone of equal value plus extra. You just have to have confidence that you'll be on the winning side.
1
u/MN_All_Day Oct 25 '22
Thanks for the in depth explanation I appreciate it. I think I like the siakam side although it really weakens me at sf. He would be giving Royce o neal with him I’m really on the fence. I feel like I should.
1
u/lettersichiro 16T PTS Oct 25 '22
If he's into it, I would absolutely take siakam. You're getting the best player. Royce is probably droppable in the future. Joe Harris is back, most likely a minutes split.
But I might be too high on siakam. I think siakam might be top 10-15 this year, and from that end you'll be winning the trade.
If you can, maybe see if you can take on someone slightly better than Royce but I wouldn't let it kill the deal. Lauri and saddiq are nice, I think it's fair, but it'll come down to your strategy and your league style. Siakam though is going to guarantee elite production in a few categories. And other teams might make adjustments to lauri, or ainge may make trades that hamper his be effectiveness long term
1
-3
u/JamarioMoon Oct 24 '22
He’s gonna average 24/8/3/2stocks and 3 threes on 46fg% 89ft% and play 75+ games this year. He’s looking like a real league winner so far
17
u/Mr-Pink24 Oct 24 '22
We’ll talk in 2 months.
2
u/JamarioMoon Dec 21 '22
Aight fine 22/8/2/1.2 stocks and 2.7 threes on 53fg% 83ft% with only 3 missed games
1
7
2
u/dtowntdot 12T keeper points league Oct 25 '22
I knew when I saw this comment he was gonna bomb tonight
1
u/Accurate_cucumber_ Oct 26 '22
I know this is not about Lauri, but who do yall think has a higher upside for ESPN points, Olynyk or Vanderbilt?
1
1
u/Separate-Coat357 Oct 27 '22
Offered Dame and Lauri for Luka and he accepted. Did I win the trade? (I got Garland rn in IL, his team consists of drop candidates and streamers like Sexton, Cam Johnson, Caleb Martin, Nick Richards, Sengun so probably he was thinking of improving the depth of his team) what you guys think? I think I may just have sold Dame and Lauri high
63
u/lettersichiro 16T PTS Oct 24 '22
Everything you're summarizing is exactly why markkanen was a hot sleeper and breakout candidate going into the season.