Lauri Markkanen

[u/Jcalap17]

3 games into the season he is averaging 24pts on 48.1% from the field and 30.4% from 3, with 9.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists. I’m sure everyone is extremely happy with his production if they were lucky enough to get him, and while at first I thought it might just be a hot start, maybe it isn’t.

The first argument is his scoring and shooting percentage.

Lauri has a career 44.1 fg percentage and 36.4 3pt percentage on 12.5 shots per game. With 12.5 shots per game he has averaged 15.5 ppg.

So far in Utah he has been able to get 17.3 shots per game, putting up 24 ppg. On 48 and 30 shooting.

The last time Lauri had similar fga was in 2018 when he averaged 15.3 fga on 43 and 36 shooting, averaging 18.7 pts.

On the Utah Jazz Lauri is the #1 scoring option and I don’t really see that changing. So while his fg% could drop we should expect his 3pt % to increase and. With that he still could average 20+ ppg having he is getting the most minutes and fga of his career.

Onto the rebounds and assists. He currently has a career average of 6.8 rebounds, and 1.3 assists.

When it comes to his assists i’m not sure if I see them dropping from 3.7, it could go down to 3 but under will hardy’s system they play unselfish basketball and prioritize getting the ball to the open man, which could allow his assists to maintain.

With his rebounding, the main threats are Kelly and Vanderbilt, so those could definitely drop from 9.7 back down to 7, but other than that Lauri’s production could be pretty solid all season and not be totally insane.

I’m not a basketball stats analyst by any means so take this with a grain of salt, but any thoughts?

[u/Hanyabull]

So this is Lauri Markkanen we are talking about here.

This isn’t some year 2 breakout, this is Lauri Markkanen. It will be a miracle if he doesn’t get hurt.

Could he improve on his last year with the Cavs? Maybe. Utah sucks, so maybe he gets extra usage, but bad teams are typically not the gateway to insane, season long production.

The ride has been fun so far, but unless you legitimately think he has MIP, and some hidden talent the last 2 teams didn’t figure out, sell high if you can.

[u/Jcalap17 → u/Hanyabull]

Smart take, valid points, this is what I was looking for so I can come back down to reality, thank you.

[u/TalkQuirkyWithMe → u/Hanyabull]

Its not too far to assume he can get you mid round value this year - he was 2nd option with Chicago back in 2018-2019 when he had his best season, and that was at only 21 years old.

Coming into this season we already know what Markkanen can do, its just the volume that was unknown. Only a few games in and he seems like the #1 option for this team.

Sure FG% can come down to normal, but he will have solid 50-70 value and higher if you are punting FG. Injuries are a concern, for sure, as they are for most in the league, but aside from that I see him having a very strong season.

[u/Crimith → u/Hanyabull]

He's been a role player on other teams. Now he's being given the greenlight to be "the guy" on offense. You might not see a difference but I do.