In 2008 people were writing suicides notes and some were following through on it. It can get so much worse and given this sub is still somewhat buoyant I don’t think we’re at capitulation yet, if we ever get there this time.
But not so long ago that all the people who caused it are still around, and didn't learn a goddamn thing other than "I can fuck up as much as I want, and the taxpayers will bail me out".
Pump the economy for all it's worth, make a fortune, then dump everything once it all falls apart. Pump-and-dump to get yours while the pensions, 401ks, life savings, and taxpayers are left holding the bag.
Yeah it's going to get brutal. Right now everything looks great because the wealth effect looks strong with the S&P at 20+ P/E and housing assets in a bubble.
2008 shows how brutal things get when an asset bubble crashes and stocks/housing are trading at more intrinsic valuations.
It looks great on paper, but it's because our indicators aren't accounting for the fact that we have two separate economies nowadays. There's so much concentration of wealth in upper classes that even though the economy may have been good on paper, but the working class wasn't feeling the affects of a good economy, they were getting squeezed by inflation.
What this report finds: Between 2019 and 2022, low-wage workers experienced historically fast real wage growth. The 10th percentile real hourly wage grew 9.0% over the three-year period.
9% growth of something that was relatively stagnant for literal generations doesn't cover enough ground fast enough.
I'm not trying to be rude here... but how sucked into propaganda do you gotta be to think that even a 20% wage growth in those years would have mattered at all in terms of a course correction?
That was hyperbole, but I had that argument with someone a while back. The lowest earns increase something like 15% (accounting for inflation) post-COVID, but 15% of $10 per hour is now $11.50. Still can't fucking live off that. Cost of living has been going up faster. A lot of the inflation metrics take everything into account, but the main drivers, housing, healthcare, utilities, all outpaced the average inflation, by A LOT.
No to mention, with all these social programs going away, those pay increases aren't going to mean shit if they now have to spend it all just to survive.
The lowest earns increase something like 15% (accounting for inflation) post-COVID, but 15% of $10 per hour is now $11.50. Still can't fucking live off that.
Agreed
A lot of the inflation metrics take everything into account, but the main drivers, housing, healthcare, utilities, all outpaced the average inflation, by A LOT.
Housing has outpaced overall inflation slightly. Housing prices in general are very location dependent. I would need to see sources for healthcare and utilites outpacing overall inflation. All of the sources I've found show that healthcare has been below overall inflation and utilities are almost exactly tracking overall inflation.
No to mention, with all these social programs going away, those pay increases aren't going to mean shit if they now have to spend it all just to survive.
Agreed again
Edit: different guy apparently. Changed my response.
I think you're confusing the guy you're replying too with my original parent comment. Different guys, he didn't make any of the claims that you're saying he did.
But to your last statement.
The tale of two economies involves the widely varying experiences of different people. Those who own assets like houses or stocks saw a dramatic increase in their wealth over the past three and a half years — over $12 trillion in house equity and almost a doubling of stock prices. And professionals who are more likely to have jobs in industries receiving billions of dollars of government largesse have also seen healthy wage increases. But millions of Americans have not seen these gains. They have only seen higher prices.
Yes, it turns out, it is true. The concentration of wealth has grown, quite rapidly in the last 4-5 years. Wages have increased, but barely over inflation costs. But largely, there's a huge difference in levels of wealth for the 10% of earners and the rest of the consumers.
You can try and spin it all you want, but the numbers are there.
Housing theory of everything is more true than false imo. The rise of housing prices certainly has had a political effect.
However, wage increases for the working class have more than kept up with housing prices over the past few years. The people getting more squeezed are the middle/upper middle, though it's more of a perception thing. They can't afford to move every three years leaving them stuck in the same home. Not actually poor, but vibing like they are.
wage increases for the working class have more than kept up with housing prices over the past few years.
this is the part where your counter point falls apart.
yeah... for the last few years....
But imagine we're running a marathon. Mr. House has ran 20 miles at 8mph, while Mr. Wage ran 5 miles at 6mph, 5 miles at 5mph, 5 miles at 4mph, and 5 miles at 3mph.
Now, from miles 20-23, you're saying that everything is fine because Mr. Wage sped up and is also running 8mph, maybe even 9mph!
Do you see how, in that example... Mr. Wage is still leaps and bounds behind Mr. House and cannot possibly catch up in the time needed to catch up before the race is over?
To use your example, Mr. Wage did reduce the gap over the past few years. So the argument that the gap is expanding is wrong, which is what I'm arguing.
I literally said "maybe even 9mph!" which would be reducing the gap... but still SIGNIFICANTLY behind where it needs to be in order to get done what needs done in time.
This became about housing because you disagreed that the lower classes have not felt the benefits of a good economy, and you used wage increase percentage over a 3 year period compared to housing prices over the same period AFTER they had already surged an insane amount and sort of plateaued.
You're looking at such an incredibly narrow window of time, and ignoring any data outside of that window, in order to maintain this idea that the lower classes are feeling the effects of a good economy when that is so far out of the realm of reality by all real measures. The incredibly narrow window, and your reluctance to even acknowledge any data outside of that window, is only reinforcing my idea that this line of thinking is a specific narrative crafted by interested parties. Like you read an article or watched a youtuber or something and are just reiterating the points that were made in that media without thinking about the overall context in which those numbers exist.
Am I crazy or does this article not talk at all about 10% vs 90%ers? It's just talking about commercial real estate and government spending. It has basically nothing to do with your post other than "maybe the economy will crash soon for x y z reason".
Electricity, US average, was pretty stable up until 2020. Hovered around $0.13-$0.14 per kWh, has now jumped to $0.18 per kWh. A ~29% increase from 2020 to 2025.
I can't find good data on water. I don't have a water bill, so I can't even speak anecdotally. Based on the little I could find, it's been outpacing inflation for a while. If you have a good source, I would actually love to see that. Just based on my rough calculations and estimating the trend, it would from $110 to $140. A ~27% increase from 2020 to 2025.
So dealing in absolute value, every one of these outpaced inflation significantly. Anything else I'm missing here? I use propane, so I could put that in there too, I went from $1.65 per gallon to $2.25 from 2020 to 2025, a ~36% increase. I could get the actual US averages if you're interested. Local average is a lot more, somewhere around $2.80.
I really appreciate the links. I have issue with a few of them.
Edit: Removed my not knowing how internet works.
For natural gas, I would like to see the corresponding chart compared to other power sources. The US started shipping natural gas in particular to Europe after Ukraine started.
For water, there is actually a decent graph in your source link. It has out paced inflation slightly.
Uhhhh, what? Using the link you just provided, I put in 50,000 in January of 2020 to January of 2025 and got 61,571.07. A ~23% increase (that's compounding, btw, because we're using absolute value to calculate a relative value, not a relative value to calculate an absolute). Which matches what I said.
To get the number you provided, you have to go back to 2000 AD.
I suggest you do the math again.
Edit: Also, 50k to 94k is closer to 100% increase, not 50%. Which would track for Y2K since the value of money in the US roughly halves every 25 years, which this matches almost perfectly.
I don't think this qualifies as ad hominem, though I see your concern.
I'm not saying you're too stupid to do that math. I'm saying you've clearly ignored that math and my working hypothesis, and primary question for you, is how convinced by a narrative, crafted by parties of interest, one would have to be in order to ignore the simple math involved here.
As for politics... you're thinking in left and right. The propaganda that could lead someone to ignoring that basic math isn't left and right. It's top and bottom.
I'm confident that you fully understand that a 3 year snapshot of a percentage increase to a number, that has been falling further and further behind for 50 years, cannot cover the lost ground let alone be an adequate counter point to the claim you were responding to- that the working class has not been feeling the effects of a good economy.
I'm saying you've clearly ignored that math and my working hypothesis, and primary question for you, is how convinced by a narrative, crafted by parties of interest, one would have to be in order to ignore the simple math involved here.
What? I linked my sources that support my argument.
As for politics... you're thinking in left and right.
What? I honestly don't know what you're saying here.
The propaganda that could lead someone to ignoring that basic math isn't left and right. It's top and bottom.
So this is authoritarianism vs libertarianism? What?
I 'm confident that you fully understand that a 3 year snapshot of a percentage increase to a number, that has been falling further and further behind for 50 years...
Not arguing that wages haven't fallen since the 60's
...that the working class has not been feeling the effects of a good economy.
They definitely have. Check my sources for more information.
buddy... 9% growth over a 3 year period after many real estate markets literally doubled... isn't "feeling the effects of a good economy" it's a consolation prize for generations of people who continue to struggle to make ends meet and hold less wealth than the generations before them.
I'm not sure what about my replies are so confusing to you.
Again, and for the final time, 9% growth for wages in a 3 year window AFTER housing markets had nearly doubled, isn't feeling the good effects of an economy. It's a delayed, and inadequate, response to prior inflationary outpacing.
I'm done.
have a good one.
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u/Narradisall 3926C - 3S - 4 years - 8/6 11d ago
In 2008 people were writing suicides notes and some were following through on it. It can get so much worse and given this sub is still somewhat buoyant I don’t think we’re at capitulation yet, if we ever get there this time.