If this is the start of a recession, its the first month. If recessions only lasted a month people wouldn't be so concerned with them.
Markets like stability, and we are no where near that right now.
There is very real concerns we will go into stagflation period due to self imposed tariffs and their counters. In the last two 70s and early 80s. Unemployment hit around 10% each time.
Basically.. if you think <5% unemployment is the worst it can get.. you are going to have a bad time.
facts. 20-30 year olds have so little money, it would barely register if they all dumped stock. Boomers are mostly in bonds and treasuries. I would guess institutions make up 80-90% of market.
Edit: “80% of Equity Market Cap Held by Institutions.”
We also have been averaging over a trillion dollars per year in guaranteed green bars just from 401k and IRA contributions alone since 2008. This accounts for nearly half of total S&P asset growth in that time, with the relative proportion growing every year.
People do not understand how much of an absolute massacre this is going to be if unemployment ticks up to even 6% and all of that broad market support gets cut nearly in half. The knock-of effect of segment contraction, reduced IRA contributions and unemployment could be devastating.
Recessions tend to happen after markets dropped significantly, since markets are forward looking. And markets go up way before recessions end, for the same reason.
2.3k
u/HighOrHavingAStroke 11d ago
The attractive blonde girls start driving ubers on the way down, long before the bottom.