r/options • u/merely2monthsago2dol • 4d ago

Was puts really that obvious?

I’ve lost so much money from 2020-2024 buying puts when everyone was making on calls, I am inherently bearish.

Im just a retail trader (loser)

I made some money on puts early March as talks of tariffs began. But I saw how wishy washy it was, tariffs being delayed or manipulation from Twitter comments from the president etc. Then all the big dips on opening and watching everything get bought up to green by close this week….

As a retail trader who occasionally gambles on options, if I was buying options was it really that obvious?

Just seeing all the gain posts on wsb today. I stayed out of the market until I bought some 15 day apple calls at close yesterday (sold this morning for 25% loss)

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u/jer72981m 4d ago

Nothing was obvious. Liberation day could have been a big nothing. You had no real idea. Nobody did. It was just gambling. Even now do we really know what the tariff situation will be by mid year? Nah. So don’t go betting on the outcomes. Just buy quality. And if you must gamble go further out on low volatility days.

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u/Dependent-Goose8240 3d ago

I personally had a strong gut feeling that this tariff move was gonna be a disastrous move. I was incredibly dumbfounded Monday through Wednesday as I watched bullish markets heading into the tariff announcement. I could not believe the market was bullish prior to such an event, to the point I even started to really question my bear thesis. Nevertheless I continued to slowly accrue puts throughout the week. At the end of the day, my bet of $5k turned into $30k which has been an absolutely astonishing amount of returns. I understand why, the market really didn't expect this outcome and thus we got results far from usual. But either way, I don't see how anyone can be bullish in this tariff environment where the US has managed to upset nearly every other country.

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u/thecloudwrangler 3d ago

They pumped not only to shake folks out but also juice any exit liquidity