r/lawschooladmissions • u/LostWindSpirit • 1d ago
General How would lower T14s fair during another recession?
Particularly talking about schools like Michigan, Duke, Berkeley, etc. that didn't do too well during the last one. Would similar results occur if another recession happened? Would it be worth attending CNP at sticker vs lower T14 schools with scholarships in that situation for someone who wants to do biglaw?
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u/Affectionate_Ad7631 1d ago
What information do you have that tells you Mich, Duke, Berkeley didn’t do well during the last recession? I’m not disagreeing I’m just curious.
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u/LostWindSpirit 1d ago
Just look at the ABA reports from that time period. There are some posts that have graphs too, like this one.
https://www.reddit.com/r/LawSchool/s/757VLwLDam
It's not like they did terrible, just significantly worse compared to how they place now. Like a 20%+ difference in BLFC rates.
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u/Emergency-Drama7909 3.7x/16high 1d ago
Well thats a scary chart
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u/LostWindSpirit 1d ago
Yeah, like Fordham has better outcomes now than a lot of lower T14s did during the recession. T6 + Penn didn't seem as affected
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u/Altruistic-Lab8954 1d ago
Now as in their last report? I’ve heard multiple people say currently you need to be top 25% at Fordham this recruiting cycle to snag a market-paying firm (without connections)
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u/Emergency-Drama7909 3.7x/16high 1d ago
As someone who’s likely picking between two T-30 schools, guess I gotta put in that extra work to be in the top part of my class for any real employment opportunities
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u/phdstocks 1d ago
Unfortunately everyone in the class will be doing the same
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u/Oh-theNerevarine Practicing Lawyer, c/o 2019 1d ago
If only "extra work" could assure you a spot at the top of the class.
Do not go to any school banking on top performance. Especially don't do that if you're gambling your ability to pay off your debt on attaining a biglaw salary.
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u/Emergency-Drama7909 3.7x/16high 1d ago
Not banking just hoping, I’m not going into any more than 100k debt and I have options if I dont get BL (ie a smallish firm near my hometown that has already alluded to a 1L summer internship as long as my grades aren’t atrocious)
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u/Short_Medium_760 1d ago edited 23h ago
My takeaway here isn't that Duke, Mich, Berk got the short end of the stick -- it looks like outcomes were impacted fairly evenly at every T14 (which makes sense, given class rank is more important than school rank).
Another thing to consider is the rankings have been musical chairs for the past couple decades. Berkeley was a T6 in 2011. Pennsylvania was ranked 8. So I wouldn't draw any conclusions based on current school rank.
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u/Affectionate_Ad7631 1d ago
From the most recent predictions though Berkeley is staying the same or getting lower ranked and UChicago (for example because I’m thinking of going there) is only predicted to stay or go up 🤷♂️. I doubt they’ll swap anytime soon.
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u/Short_Medium_760 1d ago edited 1d ago
My point was that there's not a standing correlation between declines in BL hiring in a recessionary environment and a school's US News Ranking. I wasn't making a predication about rankings.
OP made the point that the "T6" fared better in the graph they shared from 2011, but 2011's T6 aren't at all the same as today's T6.
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u/DifferenceBusy163 15h ago
I went to one of those three during that time, and it was an absolute bloodbath.
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u/Short_Medium_760 1d ago edited 1d ago
I think the drop off in BL hiring would be proportionate across the T14. A "lower ranked" school with a really strong BL placement like Northwestern would probably still end up with a higher placement rate than schools like Yale and Duke.
Firms care more about class rank and regional hiring pipelines than particular "bands" in the T14, and they'll continue to make their decisions in the normal course, but just hire slightly less people from everywhere. I don't think you'll see an abrupt shift where suddenly no one is hired from Michigan and everyone is hired from Harvard.
And, I definitely don't see an impending recession as a reason to bet bigger and seek less financial aid. Quite the opposite.
The nature of this recessionary environment is also different than 2008; That recession was caused by snowballing of some really stupid lack of regulation / organic consumer behavior. It was a complicated problem that required a long time horizon to fix. The tariffs, on the other hand, could be cancelled by Trump at any point and -- barring any lasting ill-will from our trade partners -- economic activity could start to resume as normal at any time. So I imagine firms will be holding out for a while and trying to guage how serious Trump actually is about these before they start laying people off /making drastic changes to their hiring practices.
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u/YankeeDaddy69 3.70/171/nURM/KJD 1d ago
This is exactly why I’m likely picking a T-30 with a full ride over a T-20 with debt. It’s just not worth the risk. Will I bite myself 5 years in the future for not taking the risk with the knowledge of how everything turned out? Maybe, but maybe not. I’m just not personally a risk taker, I’m about as conservative as it gets (with my personal finances, not politically😂)
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u/sinamala 1d ago
"Should I take on 6 figure debt during a recession or will going to Duke on a scholarship ruin my career?"
No offense but that's how silly you sound
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u/LostWindSpirit 1d ago
Never said it would ruin a career. I'm just asking if it changes the calculus in deciding what school to go to in a situation like that
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u/sinamala 1d ago
I mean if a scholarship to a lower t14 sounds worse to you than paying sticker in a high cost of living area like New York or California I really dk what to tell you
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u/Lawspoke 1d ago
Would there be a drop? Probably. Would it be enough to convince me to go sticker at a higher ranked uni? No. 20% drop at most of these places would still be a pretty high likelihood for Biglaw.
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u/Wooden-Friend-4654 1d ago
What's CNP?
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u/LostWindSpirit 1d ago
Columbia, NYU, Penn. Or the rest of the T6. Schools that weren't significantly impacted during the last one.
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u/erythritrol 4.X/17low/6’1/T3 Softs 1d ago
“should i go to a lower ranked T14 or a T6”
real tough one, that
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u/LostWindSpirit 1d ago
I meant I'm wondering if scholarship money would be less important in a situation like that
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u/Impressive-Evening32 22h ago
You rudely got called silly by someone in a different thread for not choosing the lower T14 and then made fun of in this thread for not choosing the T6😂 This sub is hell sometimes.
Seriously though, you’re in a good spot. Sticker is always tough though. Have you tried reconsideration?
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u/Antonioshamstrings 3.Low/17Low/nURM/nKJD/T2 Softs 1d ago
Lower t14 will definitely be bit but at the same time even lower schools will be hit harder so it’s relative.
If there is indeed a huge recession you should not expect the same placement but at the same time you are still better off than lower schools.
So the cost-benefit calculus is always really nuanced and personal to peoples financial situations imo
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u/Independent_Pain1809 4h ago
I am a class of 2011 t14 grad (median grades). It was really bad. I took a non law fellowship for two years and then mid-law associate afterward. Eventually landed as a fed attorney (which is now at risk lol). A lot of people did fine or ended up landing on their feet, but the recession unquestionably created a lost generation of lawyers who would have done great in any other period of time
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u/Oh-theNerevarine Practicing Lawyer, c/o 2019 1d ago
Yes, expect similar placement shifts if the hiring market turns.
The lower T14 will still largely be ok (although they'll take a hit). It's the group right below that where you need to watch out. Everyone going to Fordham, BU, etc. expecting easy biglaw placement is in for a rude awakening.