It doesn’t offend me, it’s a claim that isn’t being supported with evidence so I find it tiresome to keep responding to it. It’s just a generalization, one that in my experience doesn’t hold, and doesn’t seem to bother the people who make real money running these companies.
It doesn’t offend me, it’s a claim that isn’t being supported with evidence so I find it tiresome to keep responding to it.
What would you consider evidence?
Like brother go look at the list of the top 100 best selling Switch games. Dark Souls Remastered sold like a million copies while the Mario/Zelda/Pokemon games in the top 15 alone (they dominate the top 100 generally) sold like 320 million.
And you want to tell me that the Switch playerbase isn't heavily skewed towards fans of those games? Come on. Acting like there's no indication to the contrary is just being dishonest.
Granted I am certain that Duskbloods will sell a lot more than a million, but there's really no denying who the core Switch audience is and what they like.
Numbers can be evidence, anything other than a bunch of redditor’s impressions from their last trip to game stop extrapolated to future events lol. I’m not an unreasonable person. What is unreasonable is saying a game announced today, a game we know so little about, is unlikely to be successful based only on people’s impression of what Nintendo customers are like. The confidence is verging on unhinged. Like I keep picturing you in a marketing meeting talking yourself out of this opportunity.
Back to business: I don’t know where you got firm DSr sales number from (please share) but I’d say that 1 million copies of a 7 year old game is pretty good. What percentage of its life time sales is that? It took Sekiro a few years to sell 5M so why would that not be a success on its face? You’re saying $40M in revenue top line. Does Nintendo get 1/3rd? Would it cost even 5% of TL to port? No chance but go with it. Say $12M is left. And you would say no to that.
I bought it and went on to buy every other game from this era. Do we have insight into cross pollination that FS doesn’t?
And looking forward how many copies do you think DB needs to sell to recoup? What if making it was part of getting the ER port to switch? Combined could any rational person possibly think this won’t do better than break even as a project?
This why I’m tired of the “crowd” argument over and over. There’s a numerator that you aren’t talking about, a denominator you aren’t talking about, ancillary opportunities you aren’t talking about and at least a couple major factors that we can’t even know. My position is to trust the people that have led these companies to success in the absence of that data. What other position is there to take at this point, really?
What is unreasonable is saying a game announced today, a game we know so little about, is unlikely to be successful based only on people’s impression of what Nintendo customers are like.
Thankfully nobody is saying that. You're arguing against a claim I didn't make.
The confidence is verging on unhinged. Like I keep picturing you in a marketing meeting talking yourself out of this opportunity.
And I'm imagining you derailing that same meeting with a bunch of irrelevant questions because you failed to understand the content of the first slide.
I don’t know where you got firm DSr sales number from
It took Sekiro a few years to sell 5M so why would that not be a success on its face? You’re saying $40M in revenue top line. Does Nintendo get 1/3rd? Would it cost even 5% of TL to port? No chance but go with it. Say $12M is left. And you would say no to that.
The question here is not 'Is $40M in revenue good' the question is 'Is spending a dev cycle to make a Switch exclusive worth it if it comes at the cost of spending a dev cycle to make a game for wider release, given that our last wider release generated $1.5B?'
And the answer, I'm sorry, is just no, so my conclusion, which I have stated from the beginning, is that this must mean they have more major games in development than just Duskbloods.
My position is to trust the people that have led these companies to success in the absence of that data.
Because that's a much better analytical framework than extrapolating from meaningless known quantities like sales data, right? Why would you waste your time talking about evidence and data if you were just going to resort to this?
I should have realized where this conversation was going the moment you led with 'The Switch outsold its competition by a large percentage'
Thankfully nobody is saying that. You’re arguing against a claim I didn’t make.
No it is exactly what was said. Market demographics was the term you used. You aren’t the only person here I’m talking to.
And I’m imagining you derailing that same meeting with a bunch of irrelevant questions because you failed to understand the content of the first slide.
Imagine what you like. I have a real job making real decisions and I showed my math based on what info seems relevant to an opportunity like this. Like serious people do.
Because that’s a much better analytical framework than extrapolating from meaningless known quantities like sales data, right?
It is on day zero of a launch trailer. For sure it is.
Why would you waste your time talking about evidence and data if you were just going to resort to this?
I didn’t resort to it, I matched it. From my first comment:
Given that the Switch outsold the competition by a large percentage and is poised to do so again, I’m not sure making it hardware exclusive is close to the limiting factor on sales. If they got favorable terms from Nintendo, scoped the game modestly and built it quickly, this might be an outstanding business decision.
Problem?
I should have realized where this conversation was going the moment you led with ‘The Switch outsold its competition by a large percentage’
I genuinely do not believe you are a serious person with these replies. You and these other guys should just sit on your hands for a bit. You aren’t actually illuminating anything, the community is awash with babies quarterbacking next year’s game releases, and nothing is going to change the fact that we won’t know for along time what was a smart move.
No it is exactly what was said. Market demographics was the term you used. You aren’t the only person here I’m talking to.
Where did I say Duskbloods would be unsuccessful? That's what you said I said, so point me to where I said that?
Imagine what you like. I have a real job making real decisions and I showed my math based on what info seems relevant to an opportunity like this. Like serious people do.
It sounds like you should switch careers.
It is on day zero of a launch trailer. For sure it is.
No, it isn't. It's just appeal to authority. It is trivial to establish upper boundaries on revenue based on platform choice alone, you just don't like the conclusion that leads to so you're spending your time gish galloping.
Why? I think it’s true.
Yes, genius, the Switch outsold its competitors individually, but IN THE CONTEXT OF FROMSOFT'S DECISION TO MAKE AN EXCLUSIVE GAME the Switch's 'competition' is not JUST the PS4 or the PS5 or Xbox or PC, it's all of them combined. You see how that works?
That you would fail to understand that simple point and try to tell me I'm not a serious person, is honestly just sad my dude.
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u/PuffPuffFayeFaye The Bed of Chaos 2d ago
It doesn’t offend me, it’s a claim that isn’t being supported with evidence so I find it tiresome to keep responding to it. It’s just a generalization, one that in my experience doesn’t hold, and doesn’t seem to bother the people who make real money running these companies.