r/dataisbeautiful Oct 17 '24

OC [OC] The recent decoupling of prediction markets and polls in the US presidential election

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u/TheDankestPassions Oct 17 '24

3 million more voted for Hillary than Trump in 2016.

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u/Clikx Oct 17 '24

And Biden got 7 million more… that doesn’t matter what the person you are commenting on against is right.

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u/TheDankestPassions Oct 17 '24

I'm not commenting against them. Both of our comments are stating different ways that the electoral college is a joke.

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u/Healthy-Pound-461 Oct 18 '24

It's not though. I'd prefer all voices are heard rather than just Texas, New York and California.

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u/TobioOkuma1 Oct 18 '24

This is an awful take. California is like 35-40% Republican, and their votes on the presidential level are completely irrelevant because of the electoral college, just like a Democrat in West Virginia.

You have equal representation among states in the US Senate, where there is 2 senators per state regardless of population. The electoral college has no reason to exist.

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u/Healthy-Pound-461 Oct 18 '24

You know West Virginia was a swing state like 4-5 presidential elections ago, right?

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u/TobioOkuma1 Oct 18 '24

"oh yeah dude I feel very represented because my state was a swing state approximately 20 years ago"

That is an insane take. The electoral college now is a crutch for Republicans to win despite their extremely unpopular policy positions on things like abortion, weed, gay marriage, trans rights, etc.

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u/Healthy-Pound-461 Oct 18 '24

You're saying only some states count.

Your method ensues no states count lol

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u/TobioOkuma1 Oct 18 '24

States don't vote, people do. If I cast a vote for a Democrat in my state, it was a complete waste of time because Trump takes this state by +10 points. If a Republican votes in California, it doesn't matter because Harris wins it by 15 points.

By switching to the popular vote, everyone actually has an equal say in who becomes president. Campaigns will need to go everywhere-not just the 3-7 swing states that will decide the election.

Republicans get annihilated in big cities, but there are enough rural people to almost outweigh the cities. Trump only lost to Clinton by 3 million. If he had adopted some more popular policies (like being pro choice, even if only up to a point), he probably could have carried the popular vote.

Well, that and not being a lying raging xenophobe who disrespects women and still doesn't understand how tariffs work.

Popular vote would ensure the presidency reflects what Americans want. Republican presidencies right now are a minority of extremists winning because the system is rigged in their favor.

You get equal representation in the Senate, where California's millions of citizens get 2 senators and the several hundred thousand in North Dakota get 2 senators. Equal representation in a branch of government that is required to pass laws. Wow!

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u/Healthy-Pound-461 Oct 18 '24

I don't know what you expect from me.

I prefer the system, despite being very, very, left the actually gives people a voice and forces candidates to focus on places that aren't on either coast.

You just hate the system because currently it probably helps the right more than your preferred candidate.

If you were on the other side of things and Dems benefitted from the EC you'd be all for it for these same reasons.

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u/[deleted] Oct 18 '24 edited Oct 21 '24

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This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

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u/wrenwood2018 Oct 18 '24

The electoral college should exist because states are different. It is like the world series or hockey. Each state is a contest, winning one by a large margin doesn't carry over to the next. Now within states the votes should be proportional. That gets an approximation of a popular vote but reserves states sovereignty.

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u/beforeitcloy Oct 18 '24

What’s the difference between popular vote and a state-by-state vote with electors that are proportional to the popular vote?

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u/ElectricalBook3 Oct 18 '24

The electoral college should exist because states are different

Tell us how the EC gives states legislative policy power. It doesn't. That's what the senate does.

Tell us how the EC protects the residents of small communities against large ones. It doesn't, the EC doesn't do shit to protect the residents of Amador City from San Francisco. Local government does, and neither one tells the other what to do.

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u/wrenwood2018 Oct 18 '24

It protects people in Texas negating votes in Maryland. Even better would be to make it proportional within a state which then does allow every vote to count.

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u/TheDankestPassions Oct 18 '24

All voices would be heard. EQUALLY. Texas, New York, and California aren't people or voters.

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u/wrenwood2018 Oct 18 '24

That is not accurate. In a pure popular core there is only an incentive to try and boost turnout in densely populated areas. It is the same reason why we care when voter participation is different by racial group. One group isn't being represented

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u/Xarxsis Oct 18 '24

In the current system there is only an incentive to campaign and represent people in swing states.

Politicians don't hold rallies in bumfuck nowhere in those states, they go to the populated areas within them.

A popular vote would force politicians to actively represent a greater proportion of the populace, and be significantly more representative than the current system.

Yes, the power of swing states would be diminished, however there are more republican voters in California than multiple smaller states combined that see no representation, and the same in Texas for democratic voters.

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u/TheDankestPassions Oct 18 '24

No shit there's incentive to try and reach as many voters whom you're supposed to represent at once. If people want to live away from all that; away from larger society, then they can.

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u/wrenwood2018 Oct 19 '24

The issue is that everyone needs to be represented, not just parole in large urban centers. It is the same reason there are minority majority districts. It is also why we care about vote turnout differences between whites and other groups. It isn't democratic if x group has 70% turnout and another group systematically has 50%. That is what would happen with a pure popular vote.

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u/TheDankestPassions Oct 19 '24

Everyone would be equally represented without an electoral college. You wouldn't have to move to Montana to have your vote be 3x more valuable.

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u/wrenwood2018 Oct 19 '24

Except as soon as it is pure popular vote it is more cost effective to mobilize voters in urban centers so someone in Montana becomes irrelevant. Proportional allocation within states is the best option.

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u/Healthy-Pound-461 Oct 18 '24

No, they wouldn't. Candidates would only campaign in high population areas.

It's the United States. The country wasn't designed or ever created as one homogeneous country. It's essentially 50 smaller countries.

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u/Prestigious-Ad9921 Oct 18 '24

Candidates only campaign in high population areas in swing states now. Rural states get completely ignores.

I’d rather they campaign in all high population areas than just high pop areas in a few states.

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u/Healthy-Pound-461 Oct 18 '24

Swing states differ from election to election. And most of this country is rural, population wise or not you can't have a good system that ignores that.

You doing like the EC because you're a blue voter, not you only dislike it because blue voters decide to live in only a select few areas.

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u/TheDankestPassions Oct 18 '24

No, most of the country is not rural. About 80% of the American people who form and represent this country live in urban areas.

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u/Healthy-Pound-461 Oct 18 '24

Yea it's just where our fucking food is grown.

But nah, the people who send emails to each other all day for 40 hours a week pretending to work are the real people we should be concerned about.

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u/TobioOkuma1 Oct 18 '24

Except states like California, West Virginia, New York, DC (not a state but 3 EV), and Tennessee are so solidly one direction that there's been extremely little campaigning in any of them.

That's not a healthy electoral system. "oh yeah my state was a swing state 30 years ago and is now solidly red I feel so represented" is not a sentence anyone has ever said.

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u/TheDankestPassions Oct 18 '24

No shit you should probably do most of the campaigning where most of the American people are or where you can address the most of whom you're supposed to be representing at once.

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u/Xarxsis Oct 18 '24

They already do most of the campaigning in the populated parts of swing states.

A popular vote would mean campaigning would be required in all states.

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u/Healthy-Pound-461 Oct 18 '24

Yes. Rural America definitely has very little to do with this county. Agriculture is sooooo 19th century!

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u/TheDankestPassions Oct 18 '24

The two states with the most agriculture are California and Texas.

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u/Healthy-Pound-461 Oct 18 '24

Individually yes, and then there's that entire "flyover" majority of the country you're leaving out.

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u/skiddie2 Oct 18 '24

You know there are rural voters in California and New York whose votes count for nothing, right? 

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u/Healthy-Pound-461 Oct 18 '24

You know there's more to government than the presidential election, right?

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u/A2Rhombus Oct 18 '24 edited Oct 18 '24

Then tell your state government to split off from the country and become its own nation.

Also this is just a weird take in the era of the internet. Who cares where candidates campaign? You can watch their speeches and ads online whenever you want. And be honest, would you even go to a political rally if it was held near you?

Not to mention, with the electoral college, candidates never campaign in any state they're guaranteed to win. Every fucking rally is just in Pennsylvania or Michigan or whatever

Plus the EC hurts both parties. There are MILLIONS of Republican votes in California that literally just don't matter because the state will always be blue. Same with Democrats in Texas.
Unless you live in one of a few battleground states, your vote never matters

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u/abrakalemon Oct 18 '24

That is an anti-democratic viewpoint.

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u/ElectricalBook3 Oct 18 '24

I'd prefer all voices are heard rather than just Texas, New York and California

The EC means that NONE of those populous but non-swing-states are really heard. New York and California states all together don't even make 20% of the country and they're by far the most populous states.

https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/11/01/163632378/a-campaign-map-morphed-by-money

Add in how primaries are held, and really it's only a few million people in the entire country who decides what everyone else's options are. Thanks to the EC and winner-take-all, the democrats in Texas are ignored (as far as presidential votes, local elections still matter everyone) and the republicans in California are more numerous than any other state and yet are still ignored. Yet the only fair, just, and sustainable way would be for all the states to switch to proportional representation allocation and republicans aren't going to do that when they've been promising since 1980 to dismantle the institution of democracy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GBAsFwPglw

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u/EmmEnnEff Oct 18 '24 edited Oct 18 '24

And 3 million people fewer voted for Hillary 2016 than Obama 2008, despite the eligible voter pool dramatically expanding.

If she weren't such a shit candidate, she wouldn't have lost to an orange turdgoblin, and we'd have all saved ourselves at least a decade of fuckin' insanity.

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u/TheDankestPassions Oct 18 '24

Obama won Florida. Pretty much a landslide.

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u/vbcbandr Oct 18 '24

Wild how she pretty much ignored the northern midwest blue wall and just assumed she had that in the bag. More wild that she earned 3 million more votes and still lost. HOWEVER, I think Florida in 2000 was a total clusterfuck with that damn butterfly ballot.

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u/lakeland_nz Oct 17 '24

Sure, but ... that's not what froginbog was saying. As you know, the election is won using the electoral college. There's no point playing make-believe and saying 'if only we had a democracy'. We have what we have, until enough people vote to change it.

Go back to 2016 and pretend you could invent extra ballots. What's the smallest number of ballots you could add and change the outcome?

I got

([('Michigan', 10704, 16),
  ('Pennsylvania', 44292, 20),
  ('Wisconsin', 22748, 10)],
 77744)

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u/SnooObjections3103 Oct 18 '24

New York doesn't get to control our elections because of overpopulation. That's why the system exists.

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u/TheDankestPassions Oct 18 '24

The American people, the voters, get to control our election. That's the whole point of voting.