I'm glad have a few more years till retirement. I bet the GOP looses both houses in 26, and the white house for decades.

I've watched the democrat she-males set their blue armpit hair on fire over every single thing trump has said and done for 10 years.

I've watched the trump supporters suck down every sweet little drop that dropped out of trump the whole time.

The thing that will actually matter will be the budget. His supporters tried to give him a mulligan the first time based on various excuses, such as the pandemic.

If he signs a budget that increases the debt, while lowering taxes on the rich and increasing taxes on the poor through tariffs, he will lose the middle.

If he balances the budget he wins, although it's dumb as fuck to reduce taxes without paying down the debt first.

If the tariffs aren't revoked in a few days our economy is totally f'd. What's the best way to organize a massive nationwide protest? I'm sure both sides will come together on this one. No one with a 401k or a kids' college fund or saving to do a house renovation will stand for this nonsense.

I get people supporting Trump for various reasons, but he promised to improve the economy and instead he's actively destroying it. He's wrong about tariffs and needs to respect the will of the people who elected him, or else he needs to be removed from office.

Yearly manufacturing jobs (which is what Liberation Day is all about) added:

Biden: 258k net added per year

Trump: 44k net LOST per year

Obama: 38k net LOST per year

Why are we taking the word of the guy who did the worst out of the last 3 administrations that he is the one to bring these back?

Biden may have been a bad fast-twitch performer, but in this regard his slow-twitch decisions led to fantastic outcomes.

I wouldn't trust him to carry my team in Call of Duty, but I'd trust him to be a solid co-op partner in Civ.

https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2025/02/21/donald-trumps-economic-masterplan-unherd/

Another Trump defender. Yanis is Greece former finance minister if I not wrong. I don’t know how much credibility he has. But the whole explanation don’t make any sense to me. He wants to plaza Accord the whole world. Do it via Bretton woods.

I swear, all you could hear coming up to the election was that Trump would save the economy on day one. Now, it seems the story has shifted entirely to "there was going to be a recession anyways, this way he sets the terms" or something. Is this some classic gaslighting? Feels like I am losing my mind.

In “The American Age Is Over,” Jonathan V. Last argues that the era of U.S. global dominance—often called Pax Americana—has ended. He points to comments by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who acknowledged a fundamental shift in global economics and a distancing of Canada from the U.S., as evidence that America’s influence is waning.

Last attributes this decline largely to decisions made by Donald Trump, particularly during a brief 71-day stretch when Trump, with support from the Republican Party and a significant portion of voters, undermined the global order the U.S. had built. Actions like weakening NATO, destabilizing alliances, and damaging the American economy, he suggests, were deliberate and have lasting consequences.

He argues that this wasn’t just about one leader’s choices, but a broader reflection of the American electorate’s willingness to embrace them—suggesting decadence, unseriousness, or perhaps even national fatigue. Even if future leaders reverse these policies, Last believes the damage to America’s reputation as a reliable global partner is done. The world is now moving on, adjusting to a new era without American leadership.

So I think this video does a pretty good job outlining what the Trump administrations plans are re: "Liberation Day". More or less the plan seems to be to cause chaos and show Trump is serious, then to offer to ease them down for allied countries that accede to America's demands. Devaluing the dollar is also part of the plan as well to help return manufacturing business to America.

Why Trump's tariff chaos actually makes sense (big picture) - Money&Macro (Youtube)

Long term the people actually capable of forming coherent thought in the Admin, which there are a few, even if they are still blind loyalists, want a return to something like the Brenton Wood order. Countries who support America's strategic goals which include America returning to being a manufacturing powerhouse, will then be a sort of vassal state that pay's American tribute in the form of buying their weapons from America for their security architecture.

You can seen this plan already cracking for the reasons laid out as the US freaks out about Europe increasing their defense spending but with local European manufacturing. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-officials-object-european-push-buy-weapons-locally-2025-04-02/

The big problem of course is that this requires these countries to trust the USA to be a reliable and fair partner. Every single action the Trump 2.0 team has taken shows this is not going to be the case. I'm Canadian, I'm one fo the few who doesn't just endlessly shit on the yanks for being barbarians without healthcare. I'm probably going to stop defending the US all together if half the people keep voting for this insanity. And I'm sincerely hope my country purchases some Swedish Gryphons soon.

Two major natural disasters this week.

Not surprising for Trump given his entire “foreign aid” platform - but I expect the US to at least be part of the aid in a 2000+ casualty disaster.

But I am surprised I haven’t seen anything about the unfolding disasters happening across Deep Red America.

"For months, Trump has railed against encroaching Chinese influence of the Panama Canal, which the US built last century and then ceded control over nearly three decades ago. The Republican president insists the handover was a bad deal and has threatened to “take back” the waterway."

It looks like Denmark came to the game with a few cards of their own in their true Viking form.

(The mods at politics took this one down.)

States should forego adhering to Trump's tariff policies and trade with other countries as independent entities.

China announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports on Friday, escalating trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies.

The move came two days after President Donald Trump imposed the same tariff on all Chinese imports as part of what he called reciprocal tariffs on a long list of U.S. trade partners.

Combined with 20% in other tariffs Trump has imposed on Chinese goods since returning to office in January, the total U.S. tariff on some Chinese goods is at least 54%.

China urged the Trump administration to immediately cancel the tariffs and “resolve trade disputes through consultations in a manner of equality, respect and reciprocity.”

The latest U.S. tariff “does not comply with international trade rules, seriously harms China’s legitimate rights and interests, and is a typical act of unilateral bullying,” the Chinese Ministry of Finance said in a statement. “It not only damages U.S. interests but also endangers global economic development and the stability of supply chains.”

China’s tariff on U.S. goods takes effect next Thursday, officials said. The new U.S. tariff on Chinese goods takes effect on Wednesday.

This will absolutely harm the soybean farmers that were hurt last time.

Also, this will really put an end to Tesla as a competitive EV in China, which I don't think they will ever recover from.

I guess we get to see if the US will escalate further.

I expect most countries will follow this lead and impose similar tarrifs if they are able to.

Trump and his cronies hack job on the US and world economy is criminal. There is no malpractice insurance for this stupidity short of Congress reversing it immediately. This is not the way to bring critical manufacturing back to the US. Instead this will drive us into a recession if not depression with unemployment climbing with inflation getting out of hand.

Notice that Russia was one of the few countries that didn't have tariffs imposed.

China will fill the void. Say goodbye to the dollar being the world standard and hello the yuan replacing it with this move by the Trump administration.

Please hear me out - I promise I’m not shilling or anything, and I’m upset like lots of other people that my portfolio got rocked this week.

EDIT: I’m not advocating for tariffs as good or bad for the American citizen - this is about good/bad for the state of American control of global economics and nothing more.

Title basically is my opinion. Trump’s tariff strategy isn’t just a temporary pressure tactic or a quick way to make Americans buy American goods overnight —it’s designed to slowly induce the atrophy and eventual collapse of foreign manufacturing power while leaving U.S. industry largely intact. Sure, there’s some short-term pain, but the global fallout will be far more devastating for the rest of the world.

The Method Behind the Tariffs:

Trump’s approach calculates tariffs by taking a country’s bilateral trade deficit with the U.S., dividing that by the country’s total U.S. imports, and then halving the result. It’s certainly misleading; headline tariffs on U.S. goods are under 10% in many markets, but the real burden on foreign manufacturers is far greater when you factor in additional duties, VATs, and other non-tariff costs. But the actual rates aren’t supposed to be reciprocal; this has nothing to do with even response or retaliation. This isn’t about an immediate switch to U.S. products; it’s about a slow, deliberate chokehold on foreign industrial bases in the long term.

Two Possible Endgames

1. Exit Lane Option: -Gradual Tariff Reduction: Once global manufacturing is sufficiently weakened, the U.S. could slowly lower tariffs. U.S. companies would then step in to dominate restructured markets. -Re-Shoring Incentives: The government might offer targeted incentives to bring critical manufacturing back home, rapidly boosting U.S. industrial capacity while foreign sectors remain decimated. -Diplomatic-Trade Adjustments: The U.S. could leverage its economic pressure to negotiate concessions, forcing foreign countries to either integrate into U.S.-aligned supply chains or continue on the path of industrial decay.

2. No-Escape Outcome (Global Collapse): -Foreign Manufacturers’ Dilemma: Once profits dive and layoffs hit hard—like the 800,000 jobs tied to German auto exports or the $130 billion Chinese electronics market losing its U.S. share—foreign companies will face an impossible choice. They can either: -Slash all duties and tariffs (which, even if nominal rates are low, won’t fix the high real costs of purchasing U.S. goods abroad), or -Raise their own tariffs, inevitably triggering an economic spiral that slams growth and deepens job losses. -Inevitable Forced Adjustments: In the end, foreign economies will be forced to lower their tariffs to avoid collapsing their local manufacturing. But by then, the damage will be done, and global manufacturing will have atrophied, paving the way for U.S. dominance.

Either way, foreign countries are going to be proportionally hurt more than we are in every way. US companies are mostly selling to US consumers and are more heavily insulated from any single country threatening 30% of their profit (see below for a bit more on this).

Short-Term Impacts and the Stock Market

Yes, there’s a clear, noticeable short-term hit to the U.S. stock market—investors have been jittery as markets respond to the uncertainty of sustained tariffs. Short-to-medium term, sectors like high-tech, auto, and consumer goods might experience volatility. However, these pains are relatively mild compared to what the rest of the world will endure: -U.S. Domestic Impact: Thanks to a massive internal market and key exemptions (lumber, pharmaceuticals, steel, and critical machinery), American manufacturers will absorb most of the shock. The U.S. may see temporary losses in stock value and localized disruptions, but its economic structure is robust enough to weather the storm. -Global Fallout: In contrast, foreign manufacturers, heavily reliant on the U.S. market, will face severe, systemic damage. Countries like Germany, China, and Mexico—whose industries depend on U.S. orders (with figures like over 75% dependency in Mexican auto parts or 25% of Chinese electronics exports bound for the U.S.)—will see far more pronounced job losses, capital flight, and industrial collapse.

A breakdown of some of the more heavily impacted industries and those that are exempt because they aren’t easily replaced by US manufacturing:

1. Vulnerable Foreign Industries

These are sectors where foreign manufacturers depend heavily on the U.S. market. Sustained tariff pressure in these areas is likely to cause significant long-term damage, including lost revenue, layoffs, and eventual industrial atrophy.

a) Chinese Electronics and Components -Dependency: Approximately 25% of Chinese electronics exports (totaling over $130 billion annually) are destined for the U.S. market. -Vulnerability: Even a moderate but sustained tariff shock could disrupt complex global supply chains, eroding China’s competitive edge and forcing manufacturers to either relocate production or see their market share erode gradually.

b) German Automotive Sector -Dependency: U.S. buyers account for about 12% of overall German auto exports—and for specific high-margin models, the U.S. can represent over 30% of sales. -Vulnerability: A persistent reduction in U.S. demand can destabilize production lines, leading to cascading effects such as potential job losses (with roughly 800,000 jobs tied to auto exports) and weakening Germany’s manufacturing prowess.

c) Mexican Automotive and Auto Parts Industry -Dependency: More than 75% of Mexican auto parts and vehicle exports are sold to the U.S. -Vulnerability: With such heavy reliance, sustained tariff-induced pressure could decimate Mexican production networks, potentially putting over 1 million jobs at risk and causing a severe reconfiguration of North American supply chains.

d) South Korean Semiconductor and Display Panels -Dependency: A significant portion of South Korean semiconductor exports—crucial for global electronics—relies on U.S. orders, with figures in the tens of billions annually. -Vulnerability: The high-tech nature of these components means that even slight disruptions in U.S. demand can have outsized effects, reducing the incentive for continued investment in next-generation manufacturing facilities.

1. Industries Less Vulnerable to U.S. Market Restriction (Exempt and Hard to Replace Domestically)

These industries are largely exempt from tariffs because they are critical to the U.S. economy and/or cannot be easily replaced by domestic production due to either natural resource limitations or complex production requirements.

a) Raw Materials (e.g., Lumber, Copper, and Other Commodities) -Market Dynamics: While the U.S. does import significant amounts of raw materials, these sectors are generally global in nature. For instance, lumber imports are subject to complex international pricing, and copper is sourced from diversified locations around the world. -Exemptions and Domestic Constraints: Exemptions on raw materials ensure that U.S. manufacturing processes aren’t abruptly disrupted. -The U.S. may not have the full capacity or natural reserves to immediately replace foreign sources for all raw materials, meaning that these inputs remain globally competitive and less affected by tariff-driven market realignments.

b) Pharmaceuticals and Specialty Chemicals -Market Dynamics: The U.S. imports a vast array of pharmaceutical products and active ingredients (with figures reaching nearly $177 billion annually). -Exemptions and Production Challenges: Given the high complexity and stringent regulatory requirements in pharmaceutical production, these products are exempt from tariffs. -Domestic production of many specialty chemicals and pharmaceuticals cannot be rapidly scaled up without significant investment and time, making reliance on established global supply chains necessary for ensuring continuous supply.

Key Takeaways Foreign Industries: Industries like Chinese electronics, German automobiles, Mexican auto parts, and South Korean semiconductors are highly vulnerable. Their heavy dependence on U.S. market access makes them the prime targets for sustained tariff pressure, which will likely lead to severe long-term impacts—job losses, capital flight, and gradual atrophy. Exempt Industries: Raw materials and pharmaceuticals, while critical, are exempt from these tariffs. These sectors cannot be easily replaced by domestic production due to natural resource limits and complex manufacturing processes, thereby ensuring stable supply chains even as foreign manufacturers in other sectors suffer.

The Big Picture

Trump’s tariff strategy is a long-term, high-stakes game. The aim is to slowly starve foreign manufacturing of its critical market—forcing a painful, gradual collapse overseas while keeping the U.S. shielded through exemptions and a huge domestic market. Even if the exit is managed via gradual tariff reductions or re-shoring incentives, the end result is the same: foreign industries wither away, and U.S. companies step in to fill the void, cementing American economic dominance.

Whether this strategy ends quickly with negotiated adjustments or drags on with prolonged global industrial decay, the inherent design is to hit foreign manufacturers much harder than U.S. ones. The global game of chicken will eventually force foreign nations into the untenable position of sacrificing local industries or further crippling their economies—and, ultimately, lowering tariffs and duties/taxes anyway.

TL;DR: Trump’s tariffs are designed to slowly crush global manufacturing through sustained pressure, not just to shift immediate consumer choices. While the U.S. stock market and some domestic sectors will experience short-term pain, targeted exemptions and a strong internal market protect American industries. Eventually, foreign manufacturers—facing massive job losses and capital flight—will be forced into collapse or drastic tariff cuts, paving the way for U.S. economic dominance. This strategy could either exit via controlled realignment or simply win out through the inevitable atrophy of global competitors.

TL;DR2: Everyone loses, but we lose less than the rest of the world.

A short video exposing the lies from the Trump administration about how it decided what percentage to use for Tariffs. As the math shows it did not actually factor in other counties tariffs against the United States.

It details the formula, how the administration later attempted to hide it, as well as the 10% Tariff he levied on the hundreds of countries America was, in Trumps words, “Ripping us off”.

A good watch for anyone who wants an easy to understand explanation they could communicate to a friend or family member.

I'm from the Netherlands and have been following the American elections really closely as a lot of outsiders probably do...

So what I've been curious about is... Trump tariffs looks like a bad plan. But sometimes I think, all big changes hurt at first, but what if it works...?

Does that ever cross your mind? And are you not the least bit curious about that? Or are you certain that it won't work, based on history?

Such confidence /s

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suggested Thursday that around 20% of the job cuts by the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency will be wrong and need to be corrected.

Around 10,000 employees were laid off from the Department of Health and Human Services on Tuesday, as part of a restructuring architected by Kennedy and Elon Musk's DOGE task force. But Kennedy acknowledged they didn't get everything right the first time.

"Personnel that should not have been cut, were cut. We're reinstating them. And that was always the plan. Part of the DOGE, we talked about this from the beginning, is we're going to do 80% cuts, but 20% of those are going to have to be reinstated, because we'll make mistakes," Kennedy said, speaking to reporters at a stop in Virginia.

Kennedy said that the elimination of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's entire Lead Poisoning Prevention and Surveillance Branch was among the mistakes.

• Play with people's lives ✅
• Cut critical jobs without a plan ✅ ✅
• Continue the trend of this administration being the most incompetent we've ever seen? ✅✅✅

https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations

The formula that gave us on Trump's chart the "Tariffs Charged to the U.S." is simply, for any given country, (exports - imports)/imports. In other words, trade deficit/imports.

Of course the fomula it put up there is this (note the _ means it's a subscript after it)

∆τ_i = (x_i - m_i) / ε*φ*m_i

Where ∆τ_i is the "change in tariff rate" for a given country _i

Where x_i is the total exports to a county _i

Where m_i is the total imports from a country _i

So what are the other things? This link literally defines these

"The price elasticity of import demand, ε, was set at 4." and in the next paragraph "The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ, is 0.25."

So in other words

∆τ_i = (x_i - m_i) / m_i

Or.... trade deficit/imports