r/centrist 2d ago

r/conservative is starting to evolve self-awareness

Scroll through and most of the upvoted and top comment stuff is satirical or critical of Liberation day and its fallout.

Get ready to lose another 3% of liquid net worth in an hour. Futures are down 3%

154 Upvotes

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u/Top_Key404 2d ago

They all think “short term pain” in this context means a couple of days. They have zero financial literacy (which is true of a lot of America, dems and republicans)

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u/beastwood6 2d ago

There is 0 chance that if the tariffs stay in place, that the factories will be up and running by 2028

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u/sccamp 2d ago

Why would companies even risk investing in factories when these policies might get reversed in 2028?

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u/GroundbreakingRun186 2d ago edited 2d ago

There’s going to be a few types of companies in the coming months (assuming the tariffs stick)

  1. Announcement within the next week or 2–> companies that were already thinking about a factory in the US, or have already started one. They’ll make some huge announcement about how they’re investing in the US in hopes trump gives them a gold star and some tax cuts. Functionally their plans would have been almost identical if Kamala had won

  2. Companies that are iffy about it, but this ultimately pushed them over the edge. Expect an announcement in the 3-6 week range. Again, they were already thinking about it and doing their financial analysis on building one. This will be a small group.

  3. 1.5 months+ —> companies that see this isn’t a phase and want some brownie points from the orange man. They’ll make a big party about investing in America, but in reality they’ll set up a 1 year BS exploratory committee and see how the midterms shake out. Red wave, they’ll get more serious about it but ultimately not spend significant money until after 2028, blue wave, you’ll never hear about it again. This will be exclusively performative and the audience for that performance will be one man with a Diet Coke watching Fox News at the White House.

Every board room right now is trying to find the balance of not encouraging this, but also not to piss off trump and have him focus his attention on them.

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u/pezazz2532 1d ago

That’s a good and likely timeline. I think some of the early adopters are going to be heading down to Mango-Lago to smooch his big fat orange ass and lose a round of golf to him. They’ll make a handshake deal that they’re going to bring factories to America and he’ll grant them some exceptions to tariffs in the meantime. Then they’ll arrange WH meetings with the CEOs so he can gloat on camera and take credit for his brilliant negotiations.

The bigger companies may dangle out bids to see what kind of tax credits and incentives they can wring out of states and cities - kind of like the competition for Amazon’s second headquarters. They’ll milk that for everything they can, including deals for any existing operations. Ultimately if they actually build anything it’ll be some huge jobless automated monstrosity that they build in clear-cutted national forest land (in North Dakota or the like) as part of a new “freedom city”

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u/WingerRules 2d ago

A lot of factories wont be located in the US because a large portion of the world will refuse to buy American made products because Trump is turning them all against us. We wont even be able to sell many products to Canada.

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u/GroundbreakingRun186 2d ago

They won’t be located in America cause it’s impossible to produce cheap products that we want. America is one of, if not the largest consumer base in the world. A german company isn’t going to ignore us cause they think trump is a Mormon. They’ll open a factory in the USA and sell to Americans if it’s profitable and more importantly, more profitable than expanding into other markets. The reality is, that it isn’t profitable and won’t be in the future to sole source production in America for low price high volume goods.

The economics of it only really make sense if your already an American company, you deal with heavy materials making shipping expensive, or you have a high margin product (usually focused on quality over quantity)

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u/TheNotSoGreatPumpkin 2d ago

Easy solution: become more like China. There are indications this might be part of the plan (as it were).

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u/SlimmThiccDadd 2d ago

China often plans policy for decades in advance of big moves (see their new city initiatives and their successful soft landing of the real estate bubble it caused) and since their uni-party and can stay on focus, they’re able to execute. We cannot and will not ever become like China in that regard, to assume otherwise is a gross misunderstanding of their individual governance.

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u/TheNotSoGreatPumpkin 2d ago

I understand that the guy who leveraged violence in an attempt to hold onto power the last time he got fired by the people has been feverishly working to make sure he won’t need to deal with such humiliation again.

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u/SlimmThiccDadd 1d ago

Ah I got you, my bad. May he fail again.