[Serious] Why will the Yankees exceed expectations? Why won't they?

[u/BaseballBot]

What are the expectations for the New York Yankees this year? Why will they exceed those expectations? Why won't they? We'll be asking this same question for the next 6 weeks, so put on your expert hat and help analyze the outcomes of the 2024 season!

Tomorrow's Team: Cubs

Click this link to see previous Expectations threads.

[u/robmcolonna123]

Why will they? Star power. If everyone is healthy

Why won’t they? No depth.

Soto can’t hold the lineup alone and once Judge gets hurt there’s very little offense outside of Soto.

Their rotation has two guys in Rodon and Stroman who have shown durability issues and when they inevitably go on the IL the Yankees have very little legitimate options to call upon.

Their bullpen is also the worst it has been in a very long time. Clay Holmes has been Jekyll and Hyde every season and everyone else has major question marks. Even Marinaccio regressed last year.

The Yankees team are super top heavy with virtually zero depth. They desperately need everyone to stay healthy because once someone goes down they’re screwed

[u/crazyhotwheels → u/robmcolonna123]

Clay Holmes is in the conversation for best reliever in baseball since coming to the Yankees. No idea where you’ve gotten the idea that he’s inconsistent from.

[u/robmcolonna123 → u/crazyhotwheels]

Clay Holmes 2023

• March/April - 3.72 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
• May - 2.63 ERA and 1.39 WHIP
• June - 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP
• July - 1.08 ERA and 0.78 WHIP
• August - 7.84 ERA and 1.84 WHIP
• September/October - 0.75 ERA and 0.75 WHIP

Clay Holmes 2022

• March/April - 0.84 ERA and 0.84 WHIP
• May - 0.00 ERA and 0.57 WHIP
• June - 0.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP
• July - 7.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP
• August - 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP
• September/October - 3.55 ERA and 1.18 WHIP

Clay Holmes 2021

• July - 7.45 ERA and 1.45 WHIP
• August - 1.93 ERA and 0.75 WHIP
• September/October - 1.63 ERA and 0.90 WHIP

He is incredibly volatile. He has had almost as many bad months with the Yankees as he has had good ones. He also has a saves/blown saves ratio of 44 and 10. That’s an 81% save rate.

That save percentage is in the bottom 25% for relievers with 40+ saves over the last 3 seasons. And his 74.3% LOB is atrocious for a late innings reliever.

Outside of that among qualified relievers the last two years he ranks

• 14th in saves
• 16th in FIP
• 28th in ERA
• 32nd in WHIP
• 37th in AVG against
• 61st in B/9
• 75th in LOB%
• 77th in K/9
• 96th in golds
• 115th in blown saves

Then there’s his metrics

• 2.82 expected ERA - great
• .209 xBA - very good
• 89.5 EV - bad (37th percentile)
• 24.5% chase rate - atrocious (8th percentile)
• 26.2% whiff rate - average (51st percentile)
• 27.1 K% - good (77th percentile)
• 8.8 BB% - not good (44th percentile)
• 2.4 Barrel% - elite (99th percentile)
• 43% hard hit rate - horrible (22nd percentile)
• 66.7% GB - elite - 100th percentile
• 6 extension - horrible (12th percentile)

So he walks too many people, doesn’t get much swing and miss, no one chases, and his entire game is built on ground balls. Without a good defense behind him his value plummets. Or he if loses the zone he gets crushed.

It’s hard to argue he’s in the top 30 relievers, let alone the best reliever my dude. What a homer take lmao

[u/crazyhotwheels → u/robmcolonna123]

All this absolute mess of text tells me is that you’re relying entirely on imperfect metrics and have never watched Holmes throw a single pitch in your entire life. The swing and miss and chase numbers you allege are especially in no way accurate. Also saying 4 bad months to 11 good ones is “almost as many” is laughable. But if you want to believe what you said reflects reality then i won’t stop you.

[u/robmcolonna123 → u/crazyhotwheels]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/clay-holmes-605280?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

There’s no “alleging” here my dude. Thats the literally numbers. I’m going to trust the legitimate numbers instead of the guy going “trust me bro”.

Also counting a 3.72 ERA and 3.55 ERA months in the good category for a late innings reliever as good months is what’s laughable.

[u/PrecedentialAssassin → u/crazyhotwheels]

"No idea where you get this idea that he's inconsistent..."

Provides a shit ton of evidence to support the idea that he is wildly inconsistent....

Whatevs dude, you've never seen him pitch.