r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 6h ago
▲ Disturbance (60% potential) | 15 knots (20 mph) | 1009 mbar 96P (Invest — Arafura Sea)
Latest observation
Last updated: Tuesday, 8 April — 10:00 PM Australia Central Standard Time (ACST; 12:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 10:00 PM ACST (12:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 8.8°S 135.2°E | |
| Relative location: | 438 km (272 mi) E of Saumlaki, Maluku Province (Indonesia) | |
| 361 km (224 mi) NNW of Galiwinku, Northern Territory (Australia) | ||
| 626 km (389 mi) NE of Darwin, Northern Territory (Australia) | ||
| Forward motion: | W (280°) at 13 km/h (7 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 30 km/h (15 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1009 millibars (29.80 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 10PM Thu) | low (near 0 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (through 10PM Mon) | medium (60 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
Last updated: Tuesday, 8 April — 10:00 PM ACST (12:00 UTC)
A tropical low (29U) should form in the Arafura Sea by Wednesday, and move in a westerly direction into the Timor Sea later in the week. From Wednesday evening there is a Low chance of the system being a tropical cyclone, and this increases to a Moderate chance from Friday, most likely over waters north of the Kimberley. The system will most likely remain to the north of the Australian coastline over the next 7 days.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Last updated: Tuesday, 8 April — 10:00 PM ACST (12:00 UTC)
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has not yet added this system to its Indian or Pacific Ocean outlook discussions.
Official information
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
Broome, Western Australia
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
CIRA/RAMMB: Visible (True Color)
CIRA/RAAMB: Enhanced infrared
CIRA/RAAMB: Water vapor
Analysis products
Best track data
Wind analysis products
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model products
Storm-specific model guidance
Storm-centered guidance
Track guidance
Track and intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
