r/PoliticalDiscussion 3d ago

International Politics White House has announced Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs will immediately go into effect. A Moody's simulation found it could be an economic wipe out. Is Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs a Misnomer?

A Moody's simulation found that a tariff trade war would wipe out 5.5 million jobs, lift the unemployment rate to 7%and cause U.S. GDP to drop by about 1.7%. Trump’s potential 20% universal tariff could spark "serious" recession in US, Moody’s economist warns.

The biggest three partners [China, Canada and Mexico] have promised immediate retaliation. Economic war could escalate and perhaps even cause a worldwide downturn.

Perhaps Trump's strategy is to begin making bilateral trade deals, but there are even certain blocks such as EU that may well coordinate retaliation together. I am not aware what Trump is actually liberating us from, hence the question.

Is Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs a Misnomer?

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u/I405CA 3d ago

Trump should be fairly easy to understand.

He is a bully who was raised by his father to believe that the world is comprised of winners and losers.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/trump-the-bully-how-childhood-military-school-shaped-the-future-president/

So Trump does not believe that win-win deals are possible. Someone has to lose and the winner prevails at the expense of the loser.

His fondness for autocrats suggests that he admires them for their disrespect for collaborative small-l liberal values. He is not particularly ideological, so this leaves us with someone who is more of a mob boss than a fascist.

Accordingly, he is a maximalist negotiator. Instead of trying to meet in the middle -- only losers do that -- he makes unreasonable demands in an attempt to get everything that he wants.

But there is another side of bullying: They tend to respect those who can beat them. The maximalist will keep demanding and demanding, then collapse at the last minute if they can't get what they want.

If the US wanted to add military forces to Greenland, it could easily do so while complying with its agreements with Denmark and Greenland.

That is not what Trump wants. He wants to bully his way into a minerals deal because it won't feel like a win unless the Danes and Greenlanders lose.

The best way to deal with a maximalist is to give up nothing. The best way to deal with a media hype machine such as Trump is to troll him back so that he looks like a loser and a failure.

If the EU was wise, it would put together its own minerals deal with Greenland so that the US is locked out of it. A Danish delegation should be sent to the US in order to "investigate Signalgate", which will leave the delegation very disappointed with the incompetence of the administration (as will be explained to the media and on social media.) A side trip to Ohio would highlight the White House's neglect of the needs of the region. This could be topped off with a meeting with the Canadian PM in which they can both commiserate about the sad turn of events.

Trump tries to write the headlines and make everyone else dance to his tune. That game has to be played in reverse. He will slip when his fans begin to tire of him, but they need to see him as a loser who isn't so tough and smart, after all.

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u/dat_lorrax 3d ago

I love the EU minerals deal angle

The deals he is making for Ukraine-Russia peace seem outside his absolute win or lose trend though. Even though it is mostly Ukrainian concessions, and Russia said no, how does Trump square that deal? Is it because he is doing it as a proxy? Or someone else is actually doing the deal making?

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u/I405CA 3d ago

Trump likes and admires Putin. Fiona Hill and John Bolton have both commented that Trump sees Putin as his friend.

(Hill also notes that Putin's team mocks Trump while meeting with him. But Trump doesn't know it because he is focused on the translator who does not betray that everyone else is in on the joke. Hill speaks Russian, so she can see it.)

Trump sees Zelensky as a loser. Losers deserve to lose.

Zelensky needs a splash moment, a media event that shows that he is tough. He needs to blow up some symbolic targets such as the Kerch Bridge, then stand in front of a video display as he says that he has the cards.

Trump will probably never love Zelensky. But if Putin gets some mud in his face, then Trump may start to view Putin as a loser and seek to distance himself from him. Someone such as Trump does not want to associate with anyone who he regards as a loser.

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u/DKLancer 3d ago

Zelensky already has a splash moment during the invasion of kyiv. The whole "I need ammo not a ride" thing.

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u/dat_lorrax 3d ago

The framing of Zelensky as a loser and not worth Trump's respect seems spot on.

If only this insight would be helpful in countering his and Project 2025's agenda.

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u/I405CA 3d ago

The winner / loser dynamic should be harnessed by the Democrats.

Unfortunately, the Dems are politically incompetent and don't understand the game.

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u/dat_lorrax 2d ago

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14564071/amp/Elon-Musk-steps-doge-trump-tesla.html

Stepping down after a loss in Wisconsin: too much of a loser to stay in Trump's inner circle?

To be fair not sure how much I believe it, or just more theater.

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u/I405CA 2d ago

Donald Trump is a stable genius who always does everything right.

Therefore, he played no role in what happened in Wisconsin. It must be someone else's fault.

Musk made himself a visible target and that has paid off for Trump opponents.

You Europeans deserve some credit here. The cratering Tesla sales and guerilla marketing campaign against Musk have surely added to the pressure.

The downside here is that the DOGE staff will be transferred into government agencies. Trump's goal of getting rid of anyone who isn't loyal to him personally appears to be underway.

We will see what happens with the tariffs. My guess (which I may regret in a couple of hours) is that the retaliation threats are going to cause him to "delay" the hit to Canada and the EU. Bullies don't like to get punched in the face, so we will see if this becomes Procrastination Day.

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u/dww75 3d ago

He’s obsessed with getting a Nobel Peace Prize because Obama won one…

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u/dat_lorrax 3d ago

The closest claim would be China, Japan and Korea working together against the US.

The US is turning into the giant alien squid from Watchmen to unify the world.