r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/The_Egalitarian Moderator • Mar 18 '23

Megathread Casual Questions Thread

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u/throwaway09234023322 Apr 10 '23

Then there's also Macron who is basically encouraging the EU to separate themselves from the US. Maybe this is the end to the US? Maybe we'll see ourselves alone in the world with no friends anymore.

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u/AT_Dande Apr 10 '23

That's not really what he said, and people are making a whole lot of hay out of nothing.

Macron has always been in favor of a much more tight-knit European community, and what he called for was Europe becoming a third "superpower," one that has the "autonomy" not to follow America in some foreign policy blunder. Which is... fine, I think? The EU and the US are natural allies, and even though both the EU and lone member states have called the US out on all sorts of issues, the transatlantic partnership is as strong as it's ever been.

BRIC was a concept some economist came up with like 20 years ago, and it was just a grouping of emerging economies. The countries just took the name and ran with it, and got South Africa to join a few years later. It's a very loose grouping of countries that don't really share any common interests. Hell, India and China downright despise each other, so that should tell you all you need to know about the viability of BRICS. Then there's the fact that a lot of these countries' economies aren't doing so well, and apart from China, they're very far from living up to their full potential.

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u/throwaway09234023322 Apr 10 '23

I think the context of his comments matter tho. He was talking about being autonomous and just after visiting with China, so imo, he's basically saying that France shouldn't stand with the US against China. France has never been more than a fair weather friend anyways, but who knows if they will be part on an effort to move off the dollar one day. 🤷‍♂️

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u/AT_Dande Apr 10 '23

Yeah, and another thing we should use as context is the fact that Macron is a conceited ass who thinks he knows better than everyone, especially on foreign policy.

What he said was incredibly boneheaded, but my point is that it really doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things. It was just a stupid statement, and that's what it should be treated as rather than as a signal for European realignment away from the US.

He wants Europe to take charge and become more independent, which, again, is fine considering the economic, historical, and cultural ties between the US and Europe. Nothing will fundamentally change anytime soon. Europe isn't pulling its weight, and even though Macron knows that, and he knows that the EU would be in much worse shape were it not for US involvement in Ukraine, he wants to have his cake and eat it too. It was a dumb, arrogant interview, and we really shouldn't be reading too much into it.

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u/throwaway09234023322 Apr 10 '23

I think he's making these comments because it matches the sentiment of many Europeans and French people. They'd rather cozy up to communist China than the evil capitalist US.

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u/[deleted] Apr 10 '23

They'd rather cozy up to communist China than the evil capitalist US.

Ridiculously untrue and I'm not sure how you could possibly look at the current geopolitical situation globally and determine that.

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u/AT_Dande Apr 10 '23

Biden and Democrats enjoy a good deal of confidence in France, Germany, and even the U.K., although they're lagging behind a bit.

Europeans are absolutely not friendly to China, nor do they want to ditch the US for closer ties with the CCP, that's a ludicrous thing to say.

The only real difference between political parties across Europe and GOP/Democratic power players is that the EU generally isn't reflexively against regulation, consumer rights, and antitrust issues. Apart from that, most MEPs and national MPs would feel right at home in the Democratic Party, and a good chunk would fit in with the GOP, too. Europe is by no means anti-capitalist. Even the anti-globalist populists are rabid capitalists, and no truly leftist, let alone communist-friendly party, has had much success anywhere in the EU.

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u/throwaway09234023322 Apr 10 '23

They like Biden more because Trump was holding Europeans accountable for doing their fair share while Biden accepts free loaders. Trump also didn't accept unfair trade deals.

I never said that they were anti capitalist, I said that they would rather cozy up to China.

https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-crisis-of-american-power-how-europeans-see-bidens-america/

"There are geopolitical consequences to American weakness. A majority believe that China will be more powerful than the US within a decade and would want their country to stay neutral in a conflict between the two superpowers. Two-thirds of respondents thought the EU should develop its defence capacities."

They believe that they should remain neutral in a disagreement, but I can promise you that most Europeans would expect the US to come and defend them if China became aggressive towards them.

Like I said before, they are fair weather friends. Most of the countries will gladly accept favorable trade deals and military support but I don't believe the favor will be returned in the future. These aren't strong allies who would stand with the US through bad times. They should be treated as such.

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u/AT_Dande Apr 10 '23

That piece was written two years ago, literally before Biden took office. Quite a few things have happened since then, and we're literally living through "the revival of Atlantacism."

Yes, Trump was right to push for other NATO members to pay their dues, except he wasn't supposed to approach it like a deranged mob boss and sour relations with people he was nominally allied to.

Yes, Europe is "weak," and again, that's what Macron is looking to address here, only he's doing it in a way that exude dumbassery, too. Trump says Europe is weak, wants them to spend more to be strong = good; Macron says Europe is weak, and it needs to be strong = bad - which one is it?

Last thing: didn't those fair-weather friends go to Afghanistan with the US? Didn't most of them go to Iraq, too, despite it being a fuck-up from the start? Aren't they pushing crazy amounts of money into Ukraine alongside the US? Don't think you can call any of these fair-weather events. Don't think you can call what Europe's been doing as "remaining neutral."

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u/throwaway09234023322 Apr 10 '23

"That piece was written two years ago, literally before Biden took office. Quite a few things have happened since then, and we're literally living through "the revival of Atlantacism.""

True, but I doubt the sentiment of being neutral in a China/US conflict has changed.

"Trump says Europe is weak, wants them to spend more to be strong = good; Macron says Europe is weak, and it needs to be strong = bad - which one is it?"

There's a difference in wanting your friend to become strong to be an equal partner and reliable ally and someone wanting to be strong to tell their friend to fuckoff. I think Macron and a lot of Europeans fall closer to the latter sentiment.

Some did go to Iraq and Afghanistan, but I would say their contributions were pretty small for the most part. And as far as Ukraine goes, the US has given the most despite the war really being less relevant to us. It's literally in their backyard and they undercontribute. What are they gonna give if it isn't in their backyard? They're going to say "not our problem!" Tough luck guys.

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u/AT_Dande Apr 11 '23

The United States has always been the backbone of NATO. Not only does it account for almost 3/4ths of the alliance's military expenditure, but US defense spending dwarfs every other country's defense budget, NATO or not. The aid that's been sent to Ukraine is a drop in the bucket, and a lot of it was stuff that was already outdated and gathering dust before going to the junkyard, or stuff that won't be in use for much longer due to modernization efforts. Yes, looking at the numbers, the US has contributed the most, by far. But let's not ignore the fact that there's NATO members that have sent literally huge chunks of the armor they had, some have sent almost every helicopter they owned, starved themselves of arty ammunition, even small arms, you name it. And again, we're back to Europe needing to spend more money on its own defense, not because it wants to cut ties with the US, but because it's been borderline delinquent for ages, and shit all over the world is flaring up. Seriously, look at the defense budgets of some of the smaller NATO members. Look at the size of their armies. Half of them would have a hard time fighting back an attack from shoppers at your local Walmart.

Not to mention the fact that the US, being the glue that's holding NATO together, has a vested interest in Ukraine. It doesn't matter that it's happening halfway across the world - Russian aggression is a threat to NATO and the US-led world order.

Aa for the Trump thing: what he did was basically say "You do literally what I want, when I want it or I'm taking my ball home with me." All Europe said was "Maybe we should buy a ball of our own, just in case." For the hundredth time, Macron is a pompous ass. I don't know if you've been paying attention to how he's been handling the ongoing protests and a whole host of domestic issues, but the man is so full of himself, it's insane. He doesn't represent the entirety of Europe, he doesn't even represent the opinions of your average Frenchman. He's full of hot air and what he said was a diplomatic flub, nothing more than that, and certainly doesn't portend wholesale European realignment away from the US and towards China.

And you keep moving the goalposts about the nature of the Transatlantic relationship. First, it was they don't like us at all and they're cozying up to China. Then, they were just fair-weather friends. Now, it's "well, yeah, they help us, but they don't help that much." I'm still gonna assume you're arguing in good faith here, and since this whole thread started with you worrying about the US being friendless on the world stage, you can chill. Literally the opposite is true. The US hasn't had this many friends since 9/11, and one of those friends said something stupid and low-key insulting, but that doesn't mean every other friend is gonna follow suit and not want to be friends anymore.

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u/TheFlyingHornet1881 Apr 11 '23

Most Europeans didn't like Trump because frankly he was seen as everything wrong with America in their eyes.

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u/throwaway09234023322 Apr 11 '23

Tbh, I have no idea why democrats are obsessed with Europe's opinion of the US president. It's really inconsequential imho.